Under the background of the recent heated discussion on the “new infrastructure”, the “old infrastructure” is quietly exerting its strength and coming out of trending opportunities. On May 11, the traditional infrastructure sector strengthened. Oriental Fortune Choice data showed that as of the close of the day, the cement sector rose 2.40%, the infrastructure sector rose 0.63%, the water conservancy sector rose 0.37%, and the railway infrastructure rose 0.08%. , Real estate development rose 0.05%.

It is worth noting that the traditional infrastructure has been working for a while, such as the cement and water conservancy construction sector. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative increase has reached 13.78% and 4.94%.

Industry experts said that the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought tremendous challenges to the development of the domestic economy. Traditional infrastructure is an important force for stable growth and its importance Can not be ignored.


Three factors for the continued development of traditional infrastructure

“Currently, the continued development of the traditional infrastructure sector is mainly due to three factors.” Northeast Securities Research Director Fu Lichun told reporters at www.thepaper.cn that, first of all, China is still in the process of urbanization. Although traditional infrastructure has achieved substantial and continuous growth before, infrastructure in different regions of China and urban and rural areas The gap is still very large, especially in some remote and rural areas, and the infrastructure situation is not optimistic. Therefore, the demand potential of domestic traditional infrastructure is still great. Secondly, in the process of China’s economic growth towards high quality, the requirements for reducing economic operating costs and improving efficiency are more vigorous, so the level of traditional infrastructure construction is also increasing at this stage.

“Finally, under the influence of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, most market players in the whole industry have been greatly affected, which has a very obvious impact on economic growth. This In this case, ‘Tie Gongji’ as an important driving force to promote economic growth, and the traditional infrastructure directly promote economic growth rate, will inevitably receive more attention. “Fu Lichun further pointed out.

Guojin Securities Research also pointed out that in order to achieve economic growth goalsThis year, the overall tone of the fiscal will be more positive. If the overseas epidemic is out of control, the fiscal will be more positive. Therefore, it is expected that infrastructure investment will rise to about 9% in 2020 year-on-year. At present, the capital sources of infrastructure mainly include budgetary funds, self-raised funds and domestic loans. It is expected that the cumulative funds of these three items will reach about 10 trillion in 2020.

“At the moment, the proportion of ‘new infrastructure’ in overall infrastructure investment is still low, and it is difficult to support the growth rate of infrastructure investment to rise above 9%.” The newspaper pointed out that there is a big difference in the definition of “new infrastructure” in the market, but even if it is calculated according to the broadest sense, the “new infrastructure” will only account for 15% of the overall infrastructure investment in 2019. According to statistics, the total investment in infrastructure in 2019 is 18.2 trillion. If the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2020 is 9%, then the increase in infrastructure investment needs to reach 1.64 trillion. It is obviously difficult to rely on “new infrastructure” alone. Therefore, in the context of greater downward pressure on the economy, the “old infrastructure” will still exert its strength.

Fu Lichun also said that under the influence of the current epidemic situation, the inherent momentum for the further development of traditional infrastructure is full, superimposing the demand for economic growth, and its development has a long-term nature.


Investment opportunities exist for a long time

As the traditional infrastructure plays a more and more important role in the steady growth of the economy, the stocks of “old infrastructure” stocks rose significantly. Against the background of successive construction of government infrastructure projects and banks’ increased investment in supporting loans for infrastructure projects, how to invest in traditional infrastructure has become the focus of investors.

“Investment opportunities for traditional infrastructure always exist and have long-term investment value.” Fu Lichun said that investors should pay more attention to investment in “old infrastructure” The valuation of the investment target. “It is recommended that investors carefully examine whether the valuation and price of the relevant subject are overvalued or underestimated under the influence of the current epidemic situation and the multiple factors of the policy, and make a more rational investment accordingly.”

For the specific investment of traditional infrastructure, Guojin Securities Research pointed out that the supply of cementThe bureau remained stable, and prices remained high under the support of infrastructure demand. The second half of the outbreak ushered in a peak season, superimposed by demand policy stimulus. Therefore, the cement industry in the second half of the year is optimistic. Investors are advised to focus on listed companies with high dividend yields in the cement industry.

In the chemical industry, under the background of policy support and valuation, it is recommended that investors configure from four dimensions, one is to periodically subdivide leading stocks, such as Wanhua Chemical , Hualu Hengsheng, Sanyou Chemical, etc .; Second, pay attention to sub-sectors with limited supply in the short term and a good industry competition pattern, such as Xinhecheng and Jinhe Industry; Third, pesticides with upward price expectations and benefit from the development of genetically modified seeds Underlying stocks, such as Yangnong Agrochemicals, etc .; Fourth, focus on imports of electronic chemicals with large space for substitution, such as Plyte.

In terms of coal, despite the sluggish industry demand, the coal industry is still growing. Relatively stable stocks with low valuations and high dividend yields, in a low interest rate environment Zhongneng can obtain certain stable income, such as Inner Mongolia Huadian and Huadian International.

In terms of steel, whether it is new or old infrastructure, it has an effect on the demand of the steel industry. Investors are advised to pay attention to Sangang, Shaogang and Liugang , Fangda, Xingang and other companies.

In terms of non-ferrous metals, infrastructure growth is about boosting demand for base metals, optimistic about copper and aluminum, investors are recommended to focus on Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, China Aluminum and Yunlu Wait.

The Pacific Securities Research Report also said that in May, investors are advised to configure the leading sectors of construction, machinery, building materials and real estate in the “old infrastructure”.

However, Guojin Securities Research further pointed out that although the “old infrastructure” is expected to be effective, investors still need to prevent the epidemic situation from deteriorating and fiscal expansion to be less than expected And the risk of factors such as the substantial release of industry capacity.