“Globalization” is becoming a contradictory topic.
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “GGV Jiyuan Capital” (ID: GGVCapital), author GGV Jiyuan Capital.
GGV has something to say:
GGV investment notes are what GGV Jiyuan Capital has seen and heard about investment, business, and technology, and discuss everything about the world.
Here you can reap:
Management experience and first-line research of excellent global technology companies;
Share experience of top venture capitalists & entrepreneurs;
The world ’s human history, business experience in the era of the great voyage …
The following is the thirty-first article of the GGV Investment Notes Series .
Edit: Zhang Ying
During this period, because I am concerned about the global epidemic situation, I will watch the news every day. It is very interesting that the reporting angle of each country is different, and the reporting angles of different TV stations in the same country are also likely to be different. For example, Singapore ’s CNA (Channel News Asia) is relatively neutral, and there will be more news coverage of the entire Asia-Pacific region.Some; Chinese media will mention how to help European countries fight the epidemic together. Of course, they will also talk about the contradictions that some Western developed countries pointed to China during the period. Everyone looks at this world from a different perspective.
But at the same time, “globalization” is becoming a contradictory topic. The Industrial Revolution, the nautical century, and colonialism laid the foundation for economic globalization. After the Second World War, the four little dragons and five little tigers in Asia, and China’s reform and opening up have accelerated the pace of global economic development. Overall, in the past seventy years, “globalization” has been singing all the way .
But in the past two years, we can see that many changes have taken place in “globalization”. On the one hand, developing countries are trying to expand globalization more openly, accelerate port construction and international coordination; on the other hand, some economists believe that globalization has caused unemployment and wage decline, resulting in serious After the epidemic, countries will also rethink the issue of “globalization.”
Responsibility to the global society
In a recent article I read, 12 more senior consultants and former politicians thought about the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. They also mentioned the problem of slowing down the process of “globalization”, especially when the entire world is blocked by land, sea, land and aviation. The epidemic caused the “globalization” to almost halt overnight. Contradictions between nations, ethnic discrimination, and cultural prejudice are deepening.
The evolution of this situation is terrible, and to some extent even sad, humans have not pointed the culprit of the epidemicThe new corona virus turned it into a contradiction between different ethnic groups. Of course, whether the epidemic will continue to deepen the gap between each other, I think it is an unknown, depends on the situation in the next few months.
However, it is gratifying that many companies with global genes, including large companies like Alibaba, companies like Zoom that can provide real-time communication, and GGVs with offices and investment projects around the world Either actively donate products and services, or strive to rely on global connections and resources to get rid of the problem of global circulation of materials under the epidemic. Why do these things? I think this is because we hope that the momentum of globalization can continue and the economy can recover as quickly as possible in an environment of peaceful cooperation. China has been assisting countries with serious epidemics, such as Italy and Spain. Our GGV is also helping medical staff and providing material support in China, the United States, and Southeast Asia.
Many Chinese companies have wanted to go out, or have already gone overseas. The opportunity to go overseas will exist for a long time, but Chinese companies must also consider objective humanistic issues when going out. If you just blindly seize the market or make money, you will be short-sighted. The global economy is changing dynamically, and as much information as possible can be obtained and dynamic decisions can be made accordingly, so as to hedge the force majeure risk brought about by the “Black Swan Incident” to the greatest extent.
In my opinion, Today’s economic “globalization” faces two major challenges. The first is the gap between the rich and the poor, and the second is the deterioration of the ecological environment. In many developed countries today, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening, and a small number of people have better lives, but most low-income families are more dissatisfied with life. In such a situation of the rich and the poor, the “dissatisfied” people will not think that they are not hard enough or smart enough, but point the problem to certain ethnic groups, which forms populism caused by the gap between the rich and the poor .
But going to “globalization” will not solve their problems. Some politicians say that “globalization” can move the supply chain back to their own country and create more jobs, but from an economic perspective, this cannot solve the fundamental problem.
Ecological problems brought about by global warming and the impact on food supply will also bring huge economic costs and side effects. The Paris Agreement on environmental protection has changed, and Australia ’s forest fires cannot be extinguished for a long time … These incidents have become more common, and they have shown that the effective coordination of countries around the world is a huge challenge. The current epidemic has also caused the problem of uncoordinated global medical supplies and food supply. It will also make countries rethink core supply, and more and more will be more self-sufficient. Globalization has changed the pattern of the past, resulting in the redistribution of food and material supplies, and it has also brought new security issues.
On this premise, we should have a sense of responsibility to the global society. Especially in the current epidemic situation, a sense of responsibility to the global society means mutual help between countries. After all, the epidemic will eventually end, but the problems of the rich and the poor and security will still exist for a long time.
Where is a good market for entrepreneurs?
The slowdown in the process of “globalization” will definitely give entrepreneurs more thinking and exploration. Everyone must imagine how the world will become in the next ten or twenty years, and how everyone works What changes will be made in learning methods. These changes must come from the influence of geopolitics and technological development.
But on the other hand, what we are facing will be the multiple effects added together, and then the opportunities bred by iteration, which is also likely to be a rare entrepreneurial opportunity. In the past few weeks, I talked to an old entrepreneur ’s friend and talked about everyone ’s exploration of things. We found that everyone ’s information on everything is different.Practitioners must make better expectations and judgments based on the information they get. After all, everyone is chasing time and facing good opportunities. If you do n’t catch it, others will catch it.
For Chinese local entrepreneurs, we must pay attention to the trends brought about by Chinese consumption, and the time window for domestic consumption continues. Everyone ’s inference is that economic growth will slow down next, gradually changing from export-oriented to an economic model driven by domestic consumption. In 2019, the contribution of consumption to China ’s economic growth will be close to 60%. China will remain an important locomotive of the world economy, and its huge market and population can still make a significant contribution to global economic growth. Moreover, the gap between the rich and the poor in China is relatively smaller than in some Western developed countries. Over the past 40 to 50 years, the wealth accumulation of many people has gone from zero to one, which has reduced many poor people.
Will the slowdown of the “globalization” process affect Chinese technology companies? I think we should look at this matter rationally and objectively: China is already very advanced in the application of high-tech technology; but we still need more catch-up space in terms of the core underlying technology and basic technical architecture capabilities.
First of all, China’s advantage lies in the innovation and technology of the application side, and its product capabilities are very advanced, such as 5G. In addition, many Chinese companies have outstanding engineering capabilities, including hardware and software. Secondly, China still has a lot of room for improvement in the underlying technology, such as infrastructure capabilities, high-precision manufacturing, etc. At this point, compared with developed regions, China needs more breakthroughs.
In addition, there are a large number of senior talents who graduate each year in China, and the huge Chinese market allows these talents to learn and practice. I believe that in the next decade and two decades, China’s export opportunities will be unmanned and mechanized. This is a relatively big opportunity.
Whether it is the deployment of 5G, the popularity of mobile technology in the overall consumer end, or the ownership of leading companies such as Huawei, these all demonstrate the potential of Chinese technology companies. However, if we return to the basic scientific research level, the United States and Europe are still at the forefront of the world. The research and development of quantum computing and super high-speed rail projects also reflect their strength.
Let’s talk about the Southeast Asian market we are concerned about. Many countries in Southeast Asia rely heavily on European and American exports and investment. The impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on Southeast Asian countries is relatively large. The economic recovery of these countries should refer to the economic recovery in Europe and the United States.
India itself has a different economic volume and economic structure than other Southeast Asian countries. It has a population of 1.4 billion, and the medical system is more backward. Judging the future of this market depends on whether the new coronary pneumonia can be effectively controlled .
Sometimes we analyze new entrepreneurial opportunities, often from the rise of a new generation of consumer groups, whose consumption habits and demand have driven the development of startup companies. Alibaba and Baidu may rely on the post-70s and post-80s. Today ’s headlines and vibrato rely on the post-90s and post-00s.
So where will new entrepreneurial opportunities be born today? In my opinion, whether it is Japan, South Korea or ASEAN, the cooperation with them is very important for China. We need the exchange of technology and resources, the mutual assistance of capital, and the formation of a close regional economy, which will become a long-term economy The driving force for growth will also become the ground for new opportunities.
Fu Jixun has been paying attention to investment in the fields of online travel, travel, corporate services, and consumption. He has invested in Qunar (NASDAQ: QUNR) and Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU) ), Grab, UCweb, Didi Chuxing, Manbang Group, Meicai and other companies are currently also serving as directors of companies such as Xiaopeng Automobile, Hello Travel, and Coca-Cola. Fu Jixun has played an important role in many major strategic mergers and acquisitions in the industry, including Youku and Tudou (the first multi-billion-dollar merger in China’s technology sector), Baidu / Qunar, Ctrip / Qunar and Mushroom Street / Beauty said.
