On May 12, the person in charge of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the People’s Bank of China answered the questions of the “Financial Times” reporter about the financial statistics in April.


Q: M2 grew faster in April, how do you view the current growth in the money supply?

A: Since this year, the reverse adjustment of monetary policy has been very effective. At the end of April, M2 increased by 11.1% year-on-year, 1 and 2.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of the previous year respectively. The growth rate increased more, the currency derivation ability was stronger, and the currency multiplier was at a high level of 6.72; M1 increased steadily by 5.5 %, 0.5 and 2.6 percentage points higher than those at the end of last month and the same period of last year; the excess reserve rate at the end of April was 1.9%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year.

In the first 4 months, RMB deposits increased by 9.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.77 trillion yuan year-on-year. Deposits mainly flow to the real economy. Households and non-financial enterprises added 8.7 trillion yuan in new deposits, accounting for 93.2% of all new deposits.

Among them, household deposits increased by 5.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 226.5 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, residents ’consumption decreased, on the other hand, the country increased The support of people’s livelihood, the nominal income of residents maintained positive growth; deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 3.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.87 trillion yuan year-on-year, enterprises received more credit fund support, effectively hedged the decline in income, and reserved for subsequent business operations The total amount of fiscal deposits and deposits of government agencies and organizations increased by 25.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.56 trillion yuan, reflecting the increased support of the fiscal policy for the real economy.

Overall, the current stable monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate, providing accurate financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of production and real economy development.


Q: Could you please tell us what are the main factors that have contributed to the substantial increase in the scale of social financing since this year?

A: At the end of April, the balance of social financing scale increased by 12% year-on-year, the highest level since June 2018. The cumulative increase in the scale of social financing from January to April was 14.19 trillion yuan, which was close to the increase in the first half of last year. Among them, the increase in the scale of social financing in April was 3.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.42 trillion yuan year-on-year.

The substantial increase in the scale of social financing is mainly driven by the following three aspects:

First, financial institutions will further increase credit support for the real economy.1 -In April, RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy increased by 8.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.71 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy in April increased by 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 750.6 billion yuan. .

Second, the direct financing provided by the financial market to the real economy has increased, and the proportion of corporate bonds and stock financing in social financing has increased significantly. The net corporate bonds from January to April Financing was 2.68 trillion yuan, equivalent to 80% of the net financing of corporate bonds last year; non-financial corporate equity financing from January to April was 157 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year. The total of the two accounts for 20% of the social financing scale %, A year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points, and historically at a relatively high level.

Third, the financial system actively cooperated with the fiscal policy to promote the substantial increase of government bond financing . January to April net financing of government bonds 1.91 trillion Yuan, an increase of 524.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, the net financing of local government special bonds was 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 437.3 billion yuan over the same period last year.


Q: The overall growth rate of loans is relatively fast. What are the main areas of the structure?

Answer: At present, in order to effectively support the recovery of the real economy, the financial countercyclical regulation has been greatly strengthened, and the rate of credit is significantly accelerated. At the end of April, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 161.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month, the highest level since June 2019; an increase of 1.70 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 681.8 billion yuan.

From the perspective of borrowers, the growth of corporate sector loans has increased rapidly, and the growth of consumer loans in the household sector has gradually recovered. At the end of April, the balance of RMB loans of enterprises (businesses) increased by 12.7% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month; in April, it increased by 956.3 billion yuan, an increase of 609.2 billion yuan year-on-year. In April, personal consumption loans increased by 478.2 billion yuan, an increase of 9 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, personal housing loans increased by 367.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3 billion yuan, and remained generally stable.

The corporate loan structure shows that the financial support for the real economy has clearly improved its pertinence and effectiveness, and is highlighted by its resistance to and epidemicIndustries that are heavily influenced by credit are strongly supported by credit, and more medium- and long-term loans flow to key areas such as manufacturing, infrastructure (Note 1), and service industries. Specifically:

First, the growth rate of loans to the health and social work (Note 2) industry has increased significantly. At the end of April, the balance of loans in the health and social work industry increased by 19.2% year-on-year, respectively 2.3 and 7.1 percentage points higher than those at the end of the previous month and the end of the previous year; an increase of 11.3 billion yuan in April, an increase of 12.2 billion yuan (a decrease of 900 million yuan over the same period last year) ). Credit continued to strongly support social anti-epidemic.

Second, the growth rate of wholesale and retail loans has increased rapidly. At the end of April, the balance of wholesale and retail loans increased by 8.8% year-on-year, 0.8 and 4.3 percentage points higher than those at the end of the previous month and the end of the previous year; an increase of 25.8 billion yuan in April, an increase of 69.8 billion yuan (a decrease of 44 billion yuan over the same period last year).

Third, loans for transportation, warehousing and postal services have grown rapidly. At the end of April, the balance of loans for transportation, warehousing and postal services increased by 13.7% year-on-year, 0.9 and 1.2 percentage points higher than those at the end of the previous month and the end of the previous year respectively; in April, it increased by 139.9 billion yuan, an increase of 113.2 billion yuan year-on-year.

Fourthly, the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans invested in key areas such as manufacturing, infrastructure, and service industries have all reached recent highs. At the end of April, the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry increased by 17.8% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month, the highest point since March 2011. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of high-tech manufacturing continued to grow rapidly, and the month-end balance increased by 39.9% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. The balance of medium- and long-term loans in the infrastructure industry increased by 11.2% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month, the highest point since May 2018. The balance of medium- and long-term loans in the service industry (excluding the real estate industry) increased by 14.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month, the highest point since March 2018.

In addition, the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans to the real estate industry is stable, with a growth rate of 10.5%, which is the same as the end of the previous month and 0.9 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year.


Q: Since the outbreak, the whole society has been very concerned about the availability of credit support for “small micro” and “three rural” in the field of inclusive finance. From the total data, the current loan growth rate is very fast. Can you tell us about the specific situation of the growth of loans for “Small Micro” and “San Nong”?

Answer: In April, in eachUnder the guidance of this policy, financial institutions continue to increase credit support to the real economy, especially in the field of inclusive, and have achieved good results, and the policy effect has also become more apparent. From the perspective of loans to small and micro enterprises, the characteristics of “increasing volume, expanding area, reducing prices, and optimizing structure” are more prominent.

First, Pratt & Whitney ’s small and micro loans accelerated growth. At the end of April 2020, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans (including small and micro enterprise loans of less than 10 million yuan for individual households and operating loans for individual industrial and commercial households and small and micro business owners) was 12.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year. They were 1.5 and 2 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the end of last year, respectively. In the first 4 months, inclusive small and micro loans totaled 1.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.2% of the increase in loans, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous 3 months.

Second, the coverage of credit-supported small and micro business entities continues to expand. As of the end of April 2020, Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans supported 28.15 million small and micro business entities, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year. Increased 1.17 million households in the first 4 months. Judging from the growth in each month, affected by the epidemic in January-February, only an increase of 180,000 households. With the advancement of resumption of production and production in March, financial institutions promptly increased targeted support for small and micro business entities. An increase of 710,000 households in the month of March was equivalent to three-quarters of the increase in the same period last year; an increase of 280,000 households in the month of April had basically returned to the level of the same period last year.

Third, the interest rate of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loans has continued to decline. In April 2020, the interest rate of newly granted inclusive small and micro-enterprise loans was 5.24%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous December.

Fourth, more than 70% of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans are invested in labor-intensive industries such as manufacturing. As of the end of April 2020, among the inclusive small and micro enterprise loans, manufacturing, wholesale, retail and construction enterprise loans accounted for 39.3%, 29.7% and 7.6% respectively, accounting for 76.6% of the total. The labor-intensive enterprises mentioned above have been hit hard in the epidemic. Credit funds support these enterprises in a timely manner to solve the liquidity problem and resume work and production, which also plays a significant role in promoting “employment protection”.

Fifth, the proportion of credit loans has increased. At the end of April 2020, the balance of credit loans accounted for 15.5% of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans, an increase of 2 percentage points from the end of the previous year.

Sixth, agricultural loans continued to rise. At the end of April 2020, the balance of domestic and foreign currency agricultural loans was 37.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. It has rebounded for nine consecutive months;2.04 trillion yuan, accounting for 25.0% of the increase in various loans, 7.1 percentage points higher than the previous year’s level. The steady growth of agriculture-related loans has a positive effect on the sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas and the maintenance of people’s livelihood under epidemic conditions.


Q: Could you tell us about the macro leverage ratio in the first quarter?

A: Since 2017, China ’s macro leverage ratio has generally remained stable, and it has also achieved a net decline in 2018. It only rose by about 5.7 percentage points in 2019, an increase Far below the average annual growth rate of 10 percentage points from 2008 to 2016, the goal of stabilizing leverage was initially achieved. In the first quarter of this year, affected by the impact of the epidemic, China’s macro leverage ratio increased significantly.

It should be noted that the rebound of macro leverage ratio in the first quarter is a manifestation of the countercyclical policies supporting the resumption of the real economy. Under the premise of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the formulation of counter-cyclical policies should make overall consideration for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, put better support for the recovery of the real economy in a more prominent position, and at the same time, do a good job in financial risk prevention and control. In this process, the current macro-leverage ratio should be allowed to increase in stages, and credit support for the real economy should be expanded. This is mainly to effectively promote the resumption of production and production, which actually maintains a reasonable level of macro-leverage ratio for the future. Created conditions.

Although the macro leverage ratio rebounded significantly in the first quarter, it was only phased. In particular, the counter-cyclical policy has supported the real economy to resume work and achieved remarkable results, the efficiency of transmission to the real economy has been significantly improved, and the production order has been speeded up. The People’s Bank’s survey of 10,000 physical enterprises across the country showed that industrial production was basically repaired at the end of April, the service industry operating rate continued to rise, 97.5% of the enterprises had resumed production, and more than half of the industrial enterprises’ equipment utilization rate reached or exceeded the previous year The second quarter average.

Note 1: Including transportation, warehousing and postal industry, water and electricity production and supply industry, water conservancy environment and public facilities management industry.

Note 2: Social work refers to activities that provide social work such as charity, assistance, welfare, nursing, and help.