In the afternoon of May 12, China International Capital Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “CICC”) issued a new report that pointed out that the epidemic once in a century has triggered historic fluctuations in the global economy and capital markets, although it is currently developed overseas The epidemic in the economy has gradually slowed down, but emerging markets continue to escalate, and China ’s external demand and some industrial chains have been dragged down. Therefore, the boost of China ’s domestic demand has increasingly become the focus of further development.

CICC pointed out that although the current overseas epidemic situation has “built high”, the epidemic situation presents a “multipoint outbreak” feature in the world, In particular, the “third wave of the epidemic” has spread further in some developing countries with large populations and is difficult to effectively control in the short term, so the epidemic may have a “long tail”.

At present, although major European and American countries have begun to try to resume work in stages, the background of the “second wave” epidemic maintains high pressure and the “third wave” epidemic has no turning point. Next, even if the resumption of work is carried out, it will remain a cautious and slow pace. Therefore, it is expected that the rate of “climbing” of the recovery rate will be slower than that of China, and it will take time for the global economy to return to normal order before the epidemic.

“External demand is expected to decline sharply in the second to third quarters of this year, and may continue to be under pressure in the fourth quarter.” CICC said that overseas economic activity may require 3 It can take up to 90% of the “operating rate” in a month or more.


New urbanization is a mandatory policy option.

Relevant calculations show that under the impact of the epidemic, if the economy returns to more than 6% in the second half of this year, all Achieving a GDP growth rate of 2.5% -3% annually requires a fiscal deficit of “active expansion” of 3-4 trillion yuan.

CICC pointed out that under the current situation, stable employment and people ’s livelihood require a relatively large amount of “active” fiscal expansion, and the promotion of new urbanization can be carried in a short period of time Larger government-led investments. At the same time, in order to achieve the necessary scale of fiscal “active expansion” and stimulating domestic demand, the bailout and consumer voucher measures alone are inadequate, and expanding infrastructure investment around new urbanization has also become a “necessary option” for fiscal efforts.

From a medium-term perspective, vigorously promoting new urbanization will help China cope with the medium-term challenges brought about by current changes in the international and domestic environment. Specifically, the promotion of new urbanization construction based on household registration urbanization and metropolitan area construction can resolve three medium-term challenges: First, facing the stagnation of globalizationChina ’s challenge of building a more complete industrial chain and accelerating the expansion of domestic demand; second, it resolves the short-term contradictions in which the total factor productivity has declined structurally in recent years compared to the beginning of the 21st century, and the supply demand after the epidemic has yet to recover; Acceleration, especially the challenge of the rapid rise in the average age of migrant workers in cities.

In the long run, advancing the urbanization of household registration and the construction of the metropolitan area are necessary foundations for further consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. Although China’s apparent urbanization has reached nearly 60%, China’s household registration urbanization rate and “large urbanization rate” are far below this level. At the same time, the urbanization of household registration and the development of the modern metropolitan area lag behind, and some urban infrastructure construction is still There are “shortcomings” that restrict the realization of medium- and long-term goals such as expansion of consumption, industrial upgrading, and productivity enhancement.

Accelerating the urbanization of household registration is conducive to enhancing the overall wealth growth of residents, improving the quality of urban life, releasing consumption potential, optimizing the allocation of labor resources, improving the overall quality of labor, and promoting continuous employment To effectively increase total factor productivity. And creating more high-level big cities and “metropolitan circles” will help accelerate the iterative upgrade of high-end manufacturing and service industries, and improve the efficiency of resource use. At the same time, a series of “metropolitan diseases” such as rapid rise in housing prices and living costs during urbanization have been effectively alleviated.


New and old infrastructure with Yingfengkou

CICC stated that the smooth implementation of new urbanization requires strengthening communication capabilities within and between cities, Significantly improve the actual carrying capacity of the net population inflow into the city to ensure the quality, efficiency and related supporting facilities of the new urbanization. Therefore, in addition to more new infrastructure focusing on upgrading the city’s “software”, traditional infrastructure also needs to be upgraded or even planned in advance in most cities.

For example, to open up channels for people flow, logistics and information exchange inside and outside the city, it is necessary to strengthen the intercity railway, urban rail transit, road network, public facilities network upgrade, and information high-speed Highway construction. At the same time, upgrading living facilities in cities and towns, enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, improving the quality of urbanization, and preventing and treating “big city diseases” while enhancing the effect of urban agglomeration all require assistance through further development of infrastructure.

In addition, CICC also pointed out that the impact of the epidemic is superimposed on the “restriction and longness” of global resumption. China ’s negative export growth may continue throughout the year or even longer, although The disturbance caused by the epidemic is still a short-term fluctuation of external demand, but if it lasts for a year or more, with economic growth and employmentThe accumulation of pressure will still push the expansion of domestic demand and investment in infrastructure to the forefront of policy options.