The current live streaming is still in the full category, and there will definitely be live streaming in the vertical field in the future.

Editor’s note: A sudden “black swan”-the new crown epidemic, is like a “stress test” that affects the world, triggering a “shock” in the industry. The most impacted are: industries that mainly focus on offline consumption scenarios, such as catering consumption, cultural tourism, and cinema lines. In order to save themselves, all walks of life have started the “live-selling” mode, hoping to seek survival hope in the period when social mobility is suspended.

Recently, Xue Yuning, CEO of Shengdao Investment, was invited to be a guest in the video column of “First Finance-Investors”. Communicate and discuss topics such as changes and trends.

Core perspectives include:

1. The epidemic has hit industries such as catering, entertainment, and tourism, but this is short-term. In the long run, the development logic of these industries has not affected. A black swan event in the whole industry, you (the enterprise) will get more social attention, government support, financial institutions support.

2. In the past, purely relying on the capital market to do something, arbitrage in the primary and secondary markets, or making money by operating on capital, this has been increasingly The harder it is. The present and the future should be more in-depth combination of capital and industry. In this process, capital and industry can leverage each other and achieve each other.

3. The online and offline shopping scenes, the interdependent state will exist for a long time. But there is still an irreplaceable sense of experience offline, such as display effects, offline will be a convenient complement to online, and the cost structure of online and offline will eventually reachA balance point.

4. Live streaming goods will be a trend. Now live streaming goods are mainly of all categories. It also has many outlets to be developed, such as vertical field live broadcasting . But it will not replace offline retail.

5. The cinema industry will have two major development trends: it will be a more large-scale and integrated trend; it will gradually become virtualized, VR The equipment will be gradually popularized on the C side, and offline theaters are more like a social scene. In this process, many rear theaters will die.

6. The cinema experienced an integration 30 years ago, it was because there were few copyright distribution channels in the past, but this time because of the epidemic, the cinema went through this concentration and diversion The overall theater industry will go through the process of making a big cake.

The following is a conversation record:

Short-term outbreaks will affect offline retail mode, but the industry ’s long-term logic is still there

First Finance: Thanks to President Xue for accepting the first In an interview with Finance and Economics, you have voted a lot in the pan-consumer field in the past, and it has also been very successful. We found that this epidemic has a greater impact on offline stores. Some coffee bosses like Starbucks have always emphasized the third Space is in a state of failure for a period of time. Some analysts also believe that the next small-scale trend like Starbucks may be a high probability event. How do you judge the future trend of this industry?

Xue Yuning: I first want to express a personal point of view , The epidemic affected the entire offline consumption, especially several key industries, such as catering, Starbucks like you said, or tourism, movie theaters, etc.They have caused some impact.

But I think it is only a short-term impact. In the medium and long term, it will not have an essential impact on the overall economic trend or its development trend Impact. This epidemic is an all-economy and all-industry event. A black swan, if it is an individual black swan event, the company may no longer exist. Instead of an industry-wide black swan event, you will get more social attention, government support, and financial institution support.

I personally think that all these actions performed by Starbucks have little to do with the epidemic, but because during the entire online and offline economic transformation process, Starbucks ‘S competitors, when they did better online, forced Starbucks to take this step, to transform, perhaps to store, and to pay attention to online sales indicators, and these actions have little to do with the epidemic .

Reintegration of the real economy and capital may accelerate

First Finance: In such a period, Starbucks Some stores have not been able to fully resume normal dine-in business. Sequoia Capital and Starbucks have such a cooperation. How do you interpret this cooperation?

Xue Yuning: First of all, I think from an investment perspective Speaking of which, some players in the capital market will have a deep integration with some industries that are in the real economy. This will be a clear trend.

 

In the past, pure capital markets were used to do some arbitrage in the primary and secondary markets, or to make money by operating on capital. The harder it is to come, the more current and future should be a deeper combination of capital and industryMutual borrowing and mutual achievement.

So I think at this point, maybe today we are seeing Sequoia working with Starbucks. Let ’s go further, like Gao Yuan Capital has also done a lot of projects that are integrated with industry. Let ’s go further. Some big investment institutions and financial institutions, such as foreign 3G capital, etc., combine with large physical enterprises This is a trend in itself.

In the future, online and offline cost structures will converge and integration will intensify

First Financial: If the past offline stores Under the impact of online shopping, in fact, such an impact is not just now, it has appeared more than ten years ago. Under the impact of online shopping, offline stores may be able to survive, a big reason is that it is still experiencing such a scene. This scene has also been challenged in this epidemic. What do you think will happen to the development trend of offline stores in the future?

Xue Yuning: From the data, 2019 China’s total retail sales of consumer goods are about 40 trillion, and online accounts for about 10 trillion, but the growth rate of online is about 15%, and offline is about 6-8%. From the data point of view, it is fast online and slow offline, but the offline scale is still large and the online scale is still small. I personally think that online and offline, as you said, it will be a state of coexistence for a long time.

The reason is that in addition to the offline experience you just mentioned, it has an irreplaceable sense of experience. Compared with online, it is undoubtedly better. In addition, I think there are three reasons why offline and online can exist for a long time, and will not be replaced by large-scale online.

The first is to show the effect. If we openedA new clothing brand, built a store next to LV in Beijing SKP Department Store, consumers will still go shopping or go to the mall. He saw such a brand display offline, he will first assume that you are a good brand, will default to your premium space, your price will be similar to LV or flat;
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The second is also a trend in the industry. We just mentioned one thing is the O2O mode, which is a good pre-position offline. Now Ali and RT-Mart are already doing this kind of cooperation. Offline O2O is a good complement to online. O2O is also a good process for online and offline diversion of each other;

The third point is from a cost perspective. If you pay attention to the data, you will find that 2017 is a watershed. Before 2017, the cost of online sales Is lower than offline. In 2017, online and offline sales costs were basically equalized. In fact, this is easy to understand. If the online sales are good, the online growth rate is fast, and the online profit margin is high, then more and more competitors will flood into the online market, which will inevitably push up the online costs. Among them, marketing costs and advertising costs will increase. Compared to offline sales, its main cost is rent. Then in such a dynamic balancing process, a state of dynamic balance may eventually be reached, that is, their online and offline cost structures will converge.

Under such circumstances, some advantages of low online cost will be diluted. Under these three reasons, I think that online and offline are still a long-term coexistence state.

Is optimistic about the live streaming industry, but it cannot replace offline sales

First Finance: In fact, in the retail industry, this epidemic catalyzed an industry that is webcast with goods In the past, some celebrities have done things with celebrities. Now live webcasting has become a thing that can be done by the entire industry. Some people in your industry are already doing such a thing. Do you think it will be a future Is it standard? What proportion will it account for in the industry?

Xue Yuning: I personally like this live broadcast Industry, I even think that there may be one or two companies that replace traditional e-commerce in this industry. In our time, everyone likes to read text content, followed by picture content, followed by small video, and now is live broadcast, this is the evolution of human consumption habits.

The current generation of consumer groups is definitely more attractive to them than the display of text or pictures. This is also the impact of technological change. If there is no developed 5G, good bandwidth resources, and IT technology support, there is no such good infrastructure for live streaming. After these infrastructures are established, I think live streaming will be a trend, but it will not replace offline retail.

 

There are still many outlets to be developed for live streaming, such as live streaming in the vertical field, and now some of the more popular live broadcasts are still in the full category. But in the future, there will definitely be some live broadcasts in vertical areas. For example, I am good at making 3C products, I will broadcast the live broadcast of 3C products, I am good at food, I will do it It will be a trend for the live broadcast of food, rather than the current live broadcast of all categories.

Scarce scenic spots are still the core resources of cultural tourism industry

First Finance: Similar to this is the text In the travel industry, you have also invested in many cultural and tourism projects. It is also a very successful way. At present, online travel is not a way to be taken as a way, and it will definitely be restored to real tourism in the future. Do you think that the logic of the evolution of this industry in the future will also be combined online and offline, and there will even be a situation where each accounts for 50%?

Xue Yuning: From the industry of tourism, I I think that unless there is a huge technological change, technological revolution. In terms of experience and senses, whether it is VR, AR technology, or human somatosensory technology, before the greater technological revolution takes place, from the perspective of the tourism industry, it still accounts for a greater proportion of offline. Especially scarce scenic resources are still the core resources of the tourism industry. Online, it is a sales channel, distribution, and display platform. From a commercial perspective, they are still Party B, and Party A is always a scarce scenic resource.

After the epidemic, theater formats will now be integrated

First Finance: In the offline consumer field In fact, the movie market is a particularly important market, and it is also a very special market. This epidemic has forced theaters to close. It is reported that more than 200 theaters have been cancelled across the country. What do you think may happen in the theater industry in the future? Evolution?

Xue Yuning: Because we have cast some cinemas before, We have acquired some movie theaters. In the cinema industry, my judgment is that there are two development trends.

First, it will be a trend of greater scale and integration. Regardless of whether there is an epidemic situation, the trend of the Chinese theater industry has already existed, that is, the top ten theater lines are gradually integrating other small and medium Cinema. Although the top ten of China ’s thousands of theaters are still not a large proportion, this process is to be gradually integrated. Only through such integration can theaters negotiate with the film side on cost, efficiency, Only have a greater right to speak.

Second, the future trend of theaters will gradually become virtualized, which is also a combination and transformation of online and offline. There are already some companies and companies that can make some, using some VR equipment at home, or some imaging equipment can achieve the IMAX viewing effect. The offline cinema is more like a social scene. In this process, many cinemas in the tail will die.

From a consumer ’s perspective, the Chinese box office market is a market that will continue to grow. This market will continue whether the economy is good or bad. increase. In the future, there will be some home-style, immersive, and experience-like products that will divert away some consumers. But everyone ’s need to socialize will not change. Even if I watched a movie immersively at home using a VR device, if I have a need for dating, I might still go to the cinema to watch it again. These two needs do not completely conflict, they are just a new market.

Unlike 30 years ago, the current cinema industry cake will be bigger

First Finance: In fact, this market is very interesting, Thirty years ago, there was a wave of physical theater closures, because the development of the television industry at that time made the movie industry decline. Thirty years later, the digital cinema line has reoccupied the market. After this epidemic, there has been another process of industry concentration and differentiation, which is quite interesting.

Xue Yuning: Your observation is particularly good. I have also seen this phenomenon, but the two times have a particularly essential difference. In the past, the industry was not so strong in the field of copyright and distribution, but now whether it is China or the world. Speaking, the awareness of copyright is very strong.

In terms of distribution, there were few distribution channels in the past, and there are many distribution channels now, especially in terms of copyright. After a lot of theaters, this industry cake is cut off, but after this concentration and diversion, I think it is the process of making the whole theater industry a big cake.