This article comes from the WeChat public account: 100 people in the new economy (ID: qiyejiagc) , author: Li Gang, title figure from: IC photo
In early 2016, we released industry trends and predicted that within a few years, there will be several billions or even tens of billions of companies in the online education field.
” After 2016, new giants will be born in these fields “
At that time, the market value of Good Future was US $ 3.8 billion, and New Oriental Online was preparing to spin off the listing. After more than a year, the future has entered the ranks of 10 billion US dollars. The data of Eniu shows that its current market value is 28 billion US dollars, and New Oriental Online, which was successfully listed in Hong Kong last year, has a current market value of 33 billion Hong Kong dollars (April 2020) .
New Oriental Harmony has accelerated online and offline business deployment in recent years, but their coverage of the sinking market is still limited. There are a total of nearly 200 million primary and secondary school students in China, and more than 80% are in the sinking market. Based on the slightly weaker purchasing power, this market size is also about 750 billion.
I speculate that In the field of education in the sinking market, there will definitely be several tens of billions of companies, and the largest companies will even surpass the good future.
First, score is the main demand of sinking market education
My hometown used to have a saying: “I do n’t study well today and I will be a tailor tomorrow.” Because the cotton industry is abundant and the textile industry is well developed, many local people make a living as a tailor. They used to sit on the sewing machine all day long, and now many of their children are doing the same job with better machines.
Young people in sinking markets can also choose to work in cities. Due to lack of academic qualifications, they rarely get a foothold in big cities. Most of them can only do jobs that are not much different from the previous generation. Back to the county.
In China ’s vast sinking market, education is still the main way for young people to change their destiny. If you do n’t leave the county through exams, it is very likely that your father ’s path will continue in the future.
I once saw a large group of teenage students in the county classroom. Their eyes were all shining with cravings. I know that their desire to change fate with education is very urgent.
Parents in first- and second-tier cities are more willing to pay for quality education. They want to cultivate children ’s strong physique, superb artistic aesthetics and excellent ability to communicate with people. Parents who sink in the market are different, they care more about it Subject education that directly changes fate, and the effect of scoring is an important indicator to measure the input-output ratio .
Although the income level of sinking market parents is not high, the income they can directly use for consumption is not small, and they are also happy to invest in their children. As long as it can really improve the quality of children’s learning, parents are willing to pay for it. There are huge opportunities for subject education in the sinking market with learning demands and ability to pay.
Second, one county and one world, offline education in the sinking market is yet to be upgraded
Many online education companies have appeared in the past few years. The original intention of entrepreneurs is to change the imbalance of educational resources so that students no matter where they are can enjoy the course of famous teachers .
I interviewed an online education company four years ago. At that time, 70% of its users were from third- and fourth-tier cities. In recent years, with the saturation of the first and second-tier education markets, “sinking” has become the theme of almost all education companies.
Online education can indeed improve some learning efficiency, but online education also has limitations, and many problems cannot be solved. For example, the emotional connection established between children and teachers will be less, and the driving force when facing screen learning will also be reduced .
So I analyzed last year that the future of education may be the same as retail, with pure online content accounting for 35% of the total. This amount is still far from being reached, and the number of users of online education companies will continue to rise. Recently, due to the epidemic, the growth has accelerated.
But 65% of education occurs offline. Teachers will use online educational tools, but the user’s touch must be done offline. The same is true for sinking markets, where offline is the main scene of education.
So what is the status of offline education in the sinking market?