A new research report pointed out that before the advent of the vaccine, the government adopted a 50-day strict blockade and a 30-day loosening of restrictions to prevent and control methods, which may be an effective strategy to control the spread of the new coronavirus and reduce medical pressure.

On May 19th local time, the European Journal of Epidemiology published a multivariate predictive modeling study based on a multinational team of scientists The impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on 16 countries with different regions and income levels, including Australia, Mexico, Belgium, Nigeria, and South Africa, has simulated the development of these countries in different situations. The research team includes scientists from nine countries including the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, Sri Lanka, and Switzerland. Rajiv Chowdhury, an associate professor at the School of Clinical Medicine at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, and Kevin Heng, an astrophysicist and professor at the University of Bern in Switzerland, are co-first authors of the research report. .

The study was supported by the European Union, and the researchers simulated how various blockade strategies will affect the spread of the new coronavirus.

The report believes that a more effective method than the indefinite blockade or the full release of the blockade is to intermittently adopt strict blockade measures and relax the social distance policy at intervals.

At the same time, effective virus detection, contact tracing and quarantine strategies, and protection of the most vulnerable groups in society need to be maintained.

Researchers believe that The government ’s prevention and control method of alternating a 50-day strict blockade and a 30-day relaxation of restrictions will significantly reduce the expected total number of deaths. On the one hand, the method can reduce the number of deaths of severe patients with new coronary pneumonia, at the same time, it can win time for the development of prevention and clinical treatment methods, and also provide a certain degree of economic protection.


Three interventions on new coronary pneumonia in 16 countriesThe estimated impact of development, the adoption of the third method will lead to a significant decrease in the total number of deaths expected

Chowdhury said in an interview with CNBC in the US that this method will It allows people to “breath” during the relaxation period, and at the same time, especially in resource-poor areas, the program of alternating strict and loose measures is more sustainable and feasible.

Researchers simulated the development of the epidemic situation in 16 countries in different situations, including no intervention; mitigation measures and relaxation periods alternated; strict blockade measures (Suppression measures) alternate with relaxation periods.

Among them, mitigation measures refer to strategies for gradually reducing the number of new infections, including general social distance measures, health rules, case isolation, protection of vulnerable groups, school closures, restrictions Large-scale public activities, etc., do not include a comprehensive blockade; and strict blockade suppression measures refer to measures to reduce the amount of new infections faster, including strict physical distance, as well as a comprehensive blockade.

Without intervention, the model shows that the number of ICU (intensive care unit) patients will quickly and far exceed the burden in every country, which will A total of more than 7.8 million people have died in 16 countries, and the duration of the new coronary pneumonia pandemic in most countries will last for nearly 200 days.

The second case, where 50-day mitigation measures and 30-day relaxation periods alternate, can reduce the spread of the epidemic and R0 (the number of basic infections) can be reduced to 0.8. However, this strategy is almost only effective in the first three months. After the first relaxation period, the number of patients admitted to the ICU will exceed the capacity of the hospital.

Under this simulated situation, approximately 3.5 million people will die in 16 countries; the epidemic in high-income countries will continue for 12 months, and other countries will continue for at least 18 months .

Finally, under the dynamic cycle of 50-day strict blockade and 30-day relaxation period, R0 will be reduced to 0.5, and can keep ICU demand lower than that of various countries. At a level that institutions can afford, the total number of deaths in 16 countries will drop to about 130,000.

However, because the virus-susceptible population will still expand at the end of each cycle, even in this case,The duration of the new coronary pneumonia pandemic in all countries will continue to exceed 18 months.

Researchers pointed out that “there is no simple standard answer to which strategy to choose”, each country needs to determine its own policy. Oscar Franco said that all countries, especially low-income countries, will have to face the deaths of the new coronavirus and the pressure on the public health system, as well as the long-term economic recession.