Become the “big catfish” that stirs the market?

Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Gloanhui Finance Hotspot” (ID: glh_finance) , author: sushi hero.

After the US stocks closed up overnight, Facebook also ushered in its highlight moment.

As of the close of US stocks on Wednesday, its stock price rose 6.04% to close at $ 229.97, a record high, with the latest total market value of $ 655.2 billion.

Since this year, affected by the epidemic, its share price has now gone out of a V-shaped recovery trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10%.

From: Wind

The reason behind this big rise mainly comes from the good news, that is, Facebook ’s high-profile announcement to officially join the e-commerce army, which has clearly boosted the sentiment of market investors.

1 E-commerce dream finally realized?

In fact, as a social giant, Facebook has always had a dream of e-commerce, and has also launched a certain layout in recent years.

In 2007, Facebook and the business platform Oodle jointly launched the Marketplace application, which is similar to the American version of “Xianyu”, but the good times are not long. The Marketplace was closed in 2014, and then it was announced to restart in 2016, providing sales on the mobile terminal. Function;

In 2016, Facebook launched the “Facebook Shop” e-commerce platform in Thailand to promote the online sales of small and medium sellers. Its functions include product promotion, purchase, subscription and advertising;

In 2019, Facebook launched a limited shopping service on Instagram and WhatsApp …

However, the above-mentioned attempt was ultimately “thunder and heavy rain and little rain,” which did not play a crucial role in promoting Facebook’s entry into the e-commerce landscape.

Perhaps the phrase “don’t give up, don’t give up”Zhi motto is also applicable to Facebook, and now its announced new product “Facebook Shops” may be regarded as its key attempt in the field of e-commerce.

 

“Shops is not a copy of Amazon’s” end-to-end “model, but is to cooperate with existing e-commerce, such as Shopify, to help small businesses create online stores and focus on analyzing data and payment business, and will also provide integration Transportation and logistics services. “-Zuckerberg

Specifically, consumers can use this product to make purchases on Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp and other applications. At the same time, the service will be free for merchants to establish free storefronts. Service providers start product integration and cooperation.

In addition, Facebook will also launch a tool that will link the Shops service to the customer loyalty program; and display the product label below the live video to allow users to watch the live broadcast while shopping.

I have to say that Facebook ’s move is a timely strategic choice. This is not only due to its business extension, but also based on favorable decisions during the epidemic.

2 The epidemic drives online retail development

Looking back in the past, we can find that in recent years, with the full arrival of the Internet era, in order to pursue daily convenience, this model of online shopping has penetrated into ordinary people’s homes, and has thrived on the development of online retail.

However, when online retail takes advantage of the wind, the traditional model, led by offline retail, is naturally met with cold reception.

Taking the United States as an example, a large number of retailers are closing their stores and the department store giant ’s bankruptcy is coming. Many retail enterprises ’confidence in survival has fallen to a freezing point. In 2020, the impact of the new crown epidemic makes this The pain of the situation is “magnified”, and the living space of offline retail, the largest sales market in the United States, is increasingly “marginalized”, which has also affected the prosperity of the entire retail industry.

April retail sales data report for the United States

From: CENSUS

According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, the initial value of retail data in April this year fell to 403.9 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.4% from the previous month. At the same time, according to data from the National Federation of Independent Enterprises, the optimism of American small business owners fell to its lowest point in seven years in April.

US retail sales month-on-month trends

At a time when the retail industry is generally sluggish, Su Zi and people maintain a social distance without closing their doors. Online shopping begins to take the lead. The e-commerce boom cannot be ignored, or it will become the future of US retailers. The main growth driver (US e-commerce sales in 2019 increased by 14.9%, higher than the same period last year (13.6%)).

According to the Adobe Digital Economy Index, compared with before the “refuge in place” ban in early March, U.S. e-commerce sales increased by 49% in April; and from January to February this year, the US B2C retail e-commerce platform received a total of After 5.5 billion visits, sales volume increased by 52% compared with the same period last year, and the number of consumers increased by 8.8%; by 2021, global e-commerce sales may account for 17.5% of global retail sales.

US e-commerce sales trends

From: CENSUS

 

“The companies that are expected to perform best this year include: grocery retailers, e-commerce companies such as Amazon, and third-party delivery platforms and largeType food brand. “——Euromonitor

Based on this, Facebook launched the e-commerce function in this critical period, which can be described as a rational choice under the circumstances. After all, the outbreak of the epidemic has changed the consumer ’s inherent consumption behavior model to a certain extent, and increased the alignment. The recognition of online shopping will further benefit the related e-commerce business in achieving significant revenue increase.

3 Promote good revenue for advertising

The e-commerce company’s activity in this special period just stimulated Facebook’s desire to survive, that is, as an old social giant, it needs new traffic or new gameplay to continuously strengthen the user’s stickiness to itself, and then to Your own profit brings security.

According to its latest financial report, as of March 31, Facebook ’s revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2020 was US $ 17.737 billion, an increase of 18% year-on-year, exceeding Wall Street analysts ’expectations. Diluted earnings per share was $ 1.71. In addition, as of March 31, 2020, the number of monthly active users of the Facebook service “family” was 2.99 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

Overall, under the cloud of the epidemic, Facebook ’s overall performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations, but from the company ’s failure to provide revenue expectations for the second quarter or full year 2020, Facebook There are certain uncertainties in ensuring a steady level of profitability, especially in the core of profitability-advertising revenue.

Facebook ’s main income composition

From: Wind

 

“In terms of digital advertising sales, Facebook ranks second in the US market after Google.”-eMarketer data

Actually, Facebook ’s main source of income depends on advertisingMarketing, that is, based on social data, through more relevant algorithms for more accurate advertising, and its advertising revenue generally accounts for more than 90% (2019 advertising revenue accounts for 98.53% of the company’s total revenue), this excessively singular revenue The structure may put Facebook at the center of risk, especially in this special period, the difficulty of realizing traffic is more obvious.

 

“For the entire industry, the increase in usage caused by the virus outbreak is unprecedented. We are refreshing the usage record almost every day, but our business is being negatively affected like many other companies.” — Facebook
 

In order to solve this potential profit risk, based on the increasingly fierce market competition, how to ensure income growth through diversification is the key issue that Facebook needs to focus on. At present, the hot e-commerce outlet is still a comparative Good springboard.

Under this situation, Facebook can not only continue to build a social environment that meets the needs of users through this newly launched product function, but also can bring new conversion opportunities for its services such as advertising. For example, by displaying product labels under live video, Facebook can use its existing large user base to create traffic momentum for e-commerce, especially live e-commerce (more than 800 million people participate in live video on Facebook and Instagram every day).

 

“The business model of the Shops service is advertising. We will not charge merchants who use the Shops service, and we know that this service is very valuable to merchants. They will pay a higher price to buy Advertising, and we will eventually make money in this way. “-Zuckerberg

4 Is there a gap with the industry giants?

Although Facebook is ambitious in developing e-commerce, as far as the current market structure is concerned, whether it can become the “big catfish” that stirs up the market is not yet known. Recently, the competition in the e-commerce market has become increasingly fierce. Major retail companies have increased the number of e-commerce companies, leaving little room for them. To a certain extent, it is difficult to shake the market share of giants led by Amazon.

Looking at the giant Amazon, under the impact of the new crown epidemic, as a pioneer in the online business outbreak, its performance can be described as remarkable. In addition to the rapid growth in business, the stock price has also created Savings ”, the cumulative increase in Amazon ’s stock price this year has exceeded 30% (closing a record high on Wednesday).

From: Wind

According to a report published by Feedvisor, by the end of 2019, Amazon ’s share of the U.S. e-commerce market may basically reach 52.4%, higher than that of 2018 (48%), and account for 5% of total U.S. offline and online sales the above. At the same time, as of March this year, the number of Amazon paid Prime members increased to 118 million, breaking the historical record.

2015-2021 global e-commerce sales as a share of global retail sales

From: eMarketer

 

“If Jeff Bezos’ personal wealth continues to grow at the current rate, then he may become the first billionaire at the age of 62 in 2026 … while Facebook CEO Mark Zah Kebo may become the youngest trillionaire, and at his current growth rate, he is expected to enter the trillion club at the age of 51 in 2036.-Comparisun

But even as an e-commerce giant, Amazon is often caught in market controversy.

For example, before Amazon was questioned about using third-party seller information to develop its own brand products, the US House of Representatives Judicial Committee required Amazon to testify (in the past, Amazon has been investigated by Congress for market dominance and privacy issues); and Previously, the Trump administration announced a list of counterfeit and shoddy goods markets. This report lists Amazon ’s Canadian, British, German, French, and Indian websites as online markets for counterfeit goods. This is the first time U.S. companies have been included in counterfeit goods. List of markets for counterfeit goods (Amazon refutes this, saying it currently employs 8,000 employees toCombating fraud and abuse).

Source: Twitter

The above-mentioned series of disputes may cause Facebook to cause warnings in the following related e-commerce layout to avoid unnecessary reputation losses in counterfeit goods, logistics construction, consumer privacy, etc., and then lose user trust.

It can be seen that even giants are continually experimenting with trial and error, and Facebook, a novice in the e-commerce field, will have a long way to go in the future of e-commerce business.

5 Conclusion

When Facebook launched the “Facebook Shops” e-commerce product, it once said that this is a helping hand for companies that are in deep trouble based on the status quo.

This is true. After all, under the epidemic, the new crown epidemic has hit the retail industry, especially the traditional offline retail, but when God closes a window, it will inevitably open an escape. The door of birth, as people break the barriers to consumption and turn to spoil online business, soaring online shopping behavior may make the e-commerce industry usher in a new round of growth opportunities, which will not only force the industry to actively build The e-commerce ecosystem, embracing digitalization, will also give the technology giant led by Facebook an opportunity to integrate existing business forms and create new value.