“Humanity is now facing a global crisis, perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation … Yes, the storm will eventually pass, humanity will continue to exist, our great Most people will still be alive, but will live in another world “-Yuval, author of” A Brief History of Mankind “, new work:” The World After the New Crown “. This article comes from WeChat public account: Madam Mia (ID: Madamia) author: Madam Mia, from head Figure: vision China

We are facing a crisis in human history.

During the crisis, I found a particularly interesting phenomenon: At the time of the historical turmoil in the global financial market, the more professional investors are more cautious, and the more retail investors without a financial professional foundation are yelling Copy the bottom.

At several recent closed-door sharing meetings of macro and bulk industries, many professional financial circle friends said that we may have escaped the economic crisis, but may usher in another one since the 1929 Great Depression The global depression.

At least you need to have this worst psychological expectation in order to get rid of the fate of being a leek. In the case of a global financial collapse, it really looks like a good time to bargain. However, the domestic epidemic has just taken a breather, and the foreign epidemic has not yet been controlled.

So, is the current situation really suitable for bargain-hunting?

First of all, let’s analyze the recent actions of Buffett, the most representative stockholder in the stock market.

First, Buffett uncharacteristically increases cash holdings

Buffett increased the cash holdings on hand, as Berkshire bought in one fell swoop in 2008. One sentence to help you sum up, Buffett ’s video highlight at this year ’s shareholder meeting for an hour.

In the video, Balao sincerely and humbly admitted that the clearance stocks were “misread” and explained that he held 137 billion in cash and did not find a good opportunity to bargain.

In Buffett’s words, he has always been long on the U.S. economy, but as soon as his video came out, the global stock market reacted immediately, and from Asia to Europe to the United States, the global stock market fell. Clearance and abandonment of aviation stocks have become a severely affected area.

From the reasons given by Barao, we can also see some clues. The logic is very simple, there are too many planes, and it is extremely unknown whether the people ’s mileage and travel habits can be restored as before.

In fact, we can also derive a view from Palo: under the epidemic environment, the time and degree of the company’s impact may be very uncontrollable, and it is not optimistic when the epidemic is not over.

However, the companies affected by the epidemic may not only be those seen on the surface, the impact will be more profound. Just like the banking industry, once the epidemic continues to be a long-term battle, the banking industry faces a crisis of low profits and high risks; moreover, if the epidemic triggers a financial crisis, the banking industry bears the brunt of the liquidity crisis.

Palao, like most of us, is also hopeful when it comes to the epidemic. But he said:

“I do n’t know the future epidemic changes, and I ca n’t confirm future actions.”

Therefore, Paro Fund Berkshire Hathaway has held 137 billion in cash since 2020, an increase of 10 billion in cash positions compared to last year. I think the reason Palo told us is: At present, the road is unknown and it is more important to stop and wait and see than to blindly travel.

A 90-year-old wise man talked about his reflection and thoughts in the video. Although it is difficult to clearly hear whether he is optimistic about the current stock market, he is obviously full of uncertainty Worry.

Compared to Buffett, his old partner Charlie Munger gave a clearer answer in an interview.

He said, “It is time to act cautiously, not take action.”

This move is a reversal of Berkshire ’s decision to buy in one fell swoop in 2008. I think many people still remember Buffett ’s famous saying “Others fear me greed”.

It’s a fear to change Buffett this time. This completely exceeded the expectations of investors familiar with the past operations of Buffett and Munger. Buffett chose to suppress his greed during this period, and maintaining awe of the market is enough to prove that the market’s uncertainty is too high.

Plus, bottoming out is really not that easy.

Second, crude oil and gold on the top of the mountain

Let’s give you an example of the recent copying of the bottom copy to the top of the mountain. In the “Crude Oil Treasure” incident, which has received special attention recently, the mentality of retail investors has fallen into this logical black hole of breaking new ground.

Crude oil decline lasting one month has indeed caused a lot of people to speculate. Many friends around me also asked if it was possibleTo buy US crude oil and crude oil ETFs.

When crude oil breaks new lows, most of the people who rush into the futures market are thinking of bottoming out crude oil. But often when a price range is broken, it may also mean that the intrinsic price of this commodity has changed. This is a problem that many people ignore.

I am not familiar with the fundamentals of crude oil, so I specially called and talked to an industry leader who has been engaged in crude oil spot trading and investment for more than 20 years. He told me that the price structure of crude oil had changed, and he could not judge when it was at the bottom, but he knew that it was not over.

He smiled and refuted: There is no follow-up copy of the detailed research, it is all wrong.

Many retail investors have followed suit, attracted by the so-called breaks, new lows and other words, and misunderstood that they broke new lows. This is a common occurrence. However, the current investment is several times more difficult than usual, and the real economy is still under heavy load. The probability of investing in pitfalls can be described as multiplying.

Think about the bull market and make money when you buy anything. It ’s not about how capable you are. It ’s about taking advantage of the trend and doing more with less. But going against the trend is like walking in a minefield.

Speaking of crude oil, the intrinsic price of the commodity I just mentioned. The intrinsic price of a commodity is determined by the intrinsic value of the commodity. The intrinsic value of a commodity depends on the balance of supply and demand of the commodity, cost plus reasonable profit, and finally quality, brand, investor recognition and expectations.

As long as one of these factors changes fundamentally, the intrinsic value of the commodity changes, and the price changes.

Taking the example of crude oil, buying hundreds or thousands of tons of crude oil needs to be put in a professional storage warehouse. Under normal circumstances, storage costs will not account for the bulk of the entire commodity price, depending on the product is generally between 1 to 5%.

However, the US crude oil WTI invested by Crude Oil this time was overcrowded in warehouses because of oversupply. And the oil categoryThe warehouse is not built in a short time, so in a short time, everyone refuses to receive the goods (WTI is mentioned here is the delivery of physical goods) < / span>.

Therefore, just a few days before the delivery time, as we have seen, all people holding long positions are closing positions. The market fell all the way. At this time, even if there is no wrong operation of BOC crude oil treasure. The price is the same, it will not rebound.

So you can see that after the sharp drop in crude oil’s burst, the crude oil still fell a lot more than before. This is the obvious state in which the intrinsic value has changed. When the price changes, it will no longer recover.

Not to mention the bottom copy, if there is a possibility of a second outbreak in the global epidemic, is it still the bottom right now?

Three, the global economy looks at the United States, and the US economy looks at the epidemic

In fact, the global economic trend depends on the prevention and control of the US epidemic. As the saying goes: The global economy looks at the United States, and the American economy looks at the epidemic.

In the current situation, investment in all asset classes should be based on the premise that the epidemic has been or will soon be controlled, otherwise life safety will not be guaranteed and economic growth will not be discussed, let alone investment to make money.

However, the special situation of American politics has led to a further increase in the uncertainties of epidemic prevention and control. While the domestic epidemic situation is temporarily under control, the epidemic situation abroad has no trace of “fever”. In the past few days, US data has remained high.

With such epidemic data, as early as the end of March, Trump urged states to restart their economies. Do n’t forget, October this year is the time for Trump ’s re-election.

Trump’s slackness and fearlessness towards the epidemic in the early days of the epidemic. Looking back now, it was all bright red slap marks on his face.