This article comes from the WeChat public account: Time Data (ID: datagoo) , author: Zheng Yi Yang, the title figure from: vision China
Houlang is on fire.
On the day of the May Fourth Youth Day, the video website B posted this short video, which for a time attracted great attention. The number of barrages exceeded 50,000 within 10 hours, and the number of likes exceeded 480,000.
“Houlang” represents young people, and “Qianlang” represents middle-aged and elderly people. As if it had its own barrage-“The front wave was shot on the beach by the back wave”, the video caused great controversy while gaining the attention of the whole network.
No matter how people view this video, a promo can attract such attention, and it further shows that the “post wave” will always be the focus of the times. Whether it is the post-80s or the post-90s, any topic about the younger generation can easily get attention and cause anxiety.
Traditional channels are disintegrating because of the new lifestyles they bring; new consumer habits that are emerging are constantly dissolving market judgments. The rise of the younger generation is bringing new power to society while destroying the original system indefinitely. As young people occupy a higher and higher position in the consumer market, the consumer market naturally wants to strive harder for the embrace of young people. Anxiety and blindness drive people to continue to interpret and analyze the new generation.
This is certainly true, but misunderstandings are always everywhere. The most common of these is “don’t buy a house after 90”.
The house can be said to be the largest commodity that ordinary people can consume in their lifetime, and it is also one of the witnesses of the changes in our personal lives. As long as the hukou, degree and other resources we need in urban life are still deeply tied to the house, the topic of “buying a house” will always occupy an important position in personal life.
Beijing buildings under the night curtain | Photo by Chen Mingmo
But at the beginning of 2014, the internet celebrity Ma Jiajia was invited to give a speech at Vanke, throwing out the statement that he would n’t buy a house after 90s, which shocked the real estate industry. In 2015, a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that post-90s college graduates who value personal value more may become the “no-buy generation”. Only one-third of them accept “I am willing to reduce the quality of life in order to buy a house”; another 55% of post-90s graduates choose “If I want to carry a heavy mortgage, I would rather not buy a house.”
Gradually rising house prices, the continuous development of long-term rental apartments, the declining marriage rate, all kinds of appearances seem to add a more convincing footnote to “do not buy a house after 90”.
However, after analyzing the data of a large number of young people buying houses, Time Data found that as their age grows, their cognition and expectation of houses have changed dramatically. In recent years, they have even become a new rise in the group power. And their choices and preferences ultimately influenced the development of the contemporary property market.
One out of ten sets were bought by them
After careful study of the data, we can find that the post-90s generations are actually not unwilling to buy a house, but have not yet reached the “golden age” of buying a house.
In 2014, Ma Jiajia made shocking remarks. In the post-90s group, the oldest was 24 years old, and the youngest was only 15 years old.
Generally speaking, in the world, the main force of home purchases in various countries is mainly concentrated in the age range of 25-44 years old. Whether in the UK or Japan, the proportion of first-time buyers in this age range is above 68%. In the United States, the average age of people buying the first home is 33 years old. The same is true in China.
A report released by Nielsen Market Research in 2019 confirms this view. In China, school students do not have a mortgage. The proportion of mortgage loans for working people in the post-90s is much higher than that for working people in the post-95s.
But age is not the main source of this difference. Really let young people make a decision to buy a house, the main opportunity to bear the mortgage is to get married and have children.
In 2020, the first batch of post-90s officially entered the age of 30.
Many of them started to form a family to get married, and the house became the first issue that must be considered. Statistics show that only 3% of unmarried people have a mortgage; but among married young people, especially those who are married with children, the proportion of mortgage loans is not low, reaching 30% and 38%.
Personal development is another important opportunity for young people to buy a house. As of this year, the longest working time in the post-90s group has reached 8 years. As they emerged in various fields of the workplace, their income also increased accordingly with the accumulation of work experience. Joining the house-buying army at this time is a matter of course.
After investigating 330,000 single-home purchase behaviors in 23 first- and second-tier cities and some online survey data, Shell Research Institute found that since 2015, the proportion of post-90s buyers has continuously increased. In 2019, they have replaced the post-70s and become the second-largest home buyers in the property market. They are in the 20-30 age group and they have officially entered the peak period of housing demand.
Second, the first suite in reality: smaller, farther, and more old
In the end, young people bought a house, but their parents paid most of it for them.
During the past ten years of rapid economic development and continuous growth after the 1990s, house prices have also risen rapidly. A paper published in 2015 by NBER, Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom , after calculating the housing price index of 120 cities in China from 2003 to 2013, found that Beijing ’s housing prices rose the most during this decade. This is a seven-fold increase; Guangzhou has a 5.1-fold increase, Shanghai has a 4.43-fold increase, and Shenzhen has a 3.65-fold increase.
As we know, after 2013, house prices in these four cities did not stagnate, but ushered in a new round of skyrocketing. Even after experiencing the cold winter of 2019 and the epidemic in early 2020, house prices in the four major first-tier cities are still strong. According to data from a second-hand housing website, housing prices in Beijing were 58587 yuan / ㎡ in May, 51722 yuan / ㎡ in Shanghai, and 30818 yuan / ㎡ in Guangzhou. Some time ago, Shenzhen, which experienced a surge in housing prices, now has an average price of 62,105 yuan / ㎡.
The skyrocketing housing prices far exceed the purchasing power of young people. On May 14th, in the “Research Report on the Housing Price-to-income Ratio of 80 Cities in the World” released by the E-House Research Institute, the housing price-to-income ratio of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen ranked among the top ten. The highest is Shenzhen, ranking second, with a house price to income ratio of 43.5, and even the lowest house price to income ratio in Guangzhou has reached 34.1. Young people do n’t eat, drink or pay taxes, save all their salaries, and it takes 30 to 40 years to afford a house.
SummaryIn other words, it is unrealistic for most young people to buy a house by themselves. “Parent Bank” has become the largest source of funds for post-90s house purchases. The data shows that 62.2% of young people buy a house with the assistance of their parents, of which 15.6% of the young people buy their houses completely by their parents.
But even with parental assistance, young people with weaker economic power can still get a limited budget for buying a house. In terms of the “post-90s” budget for buying a house, the proportion within 1.5 million is the highest, totaling 49.4%. Among them, the proportion within 1 million is 27.2%, and the proportion between 1 million and 1.5 million is 22.2%.
In such a situation, if you want to buy a house, you can only sacrifice your living space. So young people choose to live farther and smaller.
The data shows that when it comes to choosing a home, more options after the 90s are in the “edge” position. Taking Beijing as an example, in 2019, half of Beijing ’s post-90s home buyers chose to buy properties in non-core urban areas, which is 6.5 and 11.6 percentage points higher than those after the 80s and 70s, respectively. From the urban area, the areas that the post-90s buyers prefer are Chaoyang, Fengtai and Changping, mostly sub-core urban areas or suburbs.
The young people have also made concessions in the choice of house type. Although 52.8% of the post-90s want to live in a three-bedroom 90-120 square meters.
But in fact, the proportion of young people who buy two-bedrooms is 51.6%. In the first-tier cities with higher housing prices, 19.8% of the 90s choose to live in one-bedroom.
Three, but no matter how poor it is, it can not be of poor quality
In order to save a set of real estate in this era, the post-90s gave up the bustling downtown area and sacrificed the ideal apartment type, but some of them can never give up.
They grew up in China’s economic opening and rapid growth. The growth of family wealth has made them have a stronger consumer desire and ability than the previous generation, and they are more demanding for high-end products and services. At the same time, with higher education and more opportunities to broaden their horizons, as consumers, they also pay more attention to environmental protection and sustainable development. Such characteristics are fully displayed in their choice of the first suite in life.
For the outside world, the environment requires comfortable and convenient.