Pakistan Karachi Nuclear Power Project (Photographed by Luo Fei in 2016)

Nuclear Power It is a technology-intensive and capital-intensive project with high input, high output, and high risk. The overall development cost is relatively high. However, once nuclear power is successfully put into operation, its stable power output and low operation and maintenance costs will also bring sustained, stable and considerable benefits.

A country ’s decision to develop nuclear power requires not only a strong nuclear industry foundation and a professional supervision and operation team, but also strong national financial support. Successful nuclear power construction Promote the improvement of industrial level and economic development in the country where the project is located. A country ’s economic strength and investment and financing capabilities are one of the key factors driving nuclear energy development. From the feedback of projects that have been started and completed, international nuclear power projects depend on the economic status of the importing country and government support, and are closely related to the financing policies and financing conditions of the exporting country. These influencing factors depend on the level of economic development and economic performance of the importing and exporting countries.


The relationship between nuclear power project exports and economic conditions


01 Method description

According to the analysis of the world ’s completed projects, global nuclear power export has certain relevance to the world economic development A variety of factors affect, some factors are difficult to quantitatively analyze, such as the impact of politics, policy, and new energy. In order to simplify the analysis, we will analyze the relationship between the world economic development situation and the global nuclear power export situation over the years, use the index of global GDP growth rate to represent the international economic development situation of the year, and analyze the global GDP growth rate and the number of nuclear power export units over the years.

From 1964 to 2018, the annual GDP growth rate and the number of nuclear power export units with annual changes are shown in Figure 1. The global GDP growth rate is calculated from the GDP of 264 countries (based on the US dollar currency in 2010) calculated by the World Bank. The number of nuclear power unit exports is the global export of nuclear powerThe number of units that the project has started over the years, including two sets of data, the first set of data is the number of units exported globally and currently in operation and under construction (green line in the figure), and the second set of data is the global exports currently in The number of units under construction and contracted and not started (red line in the figure), the horizontal axis is the start year of export nuclear power units. For units that are only contracted and not started, the horizontal axis is the contract year.

Figure 1 Global GDP growth rate and number of nuclear power export units with annual changes

In 1964, the United States exported two nuclear power units to India, which kicked off the export of global nuclear power projects. During the 54 years from 1964 to 2018, a total of 123 nuclear power plant export contracts were signed and constructed (of which 46 were exported from Russia, 37 were exported from the United States, 14 were exported from France, and 6 were exported from China). Taiwan, China 3).

It can be seen that the trend of global nuclear power plant export numbers is basically the same as the global GDP growth rate or the cycle is slightly lagging, which shows that the global economic cycle is the same as the global The export of nuclear power projects has certain relevance, and the global GDP growth rate has increased, that is, when the economic situation is better, due to the abundant funds, the countries ’higher investment willingness, and the increase in energy demand, the international nuclear power project construction is more prosperous; The decline, that is, when the global economic situation is not good, the international nuclear power market development and project investment and construction are facing difficulties, which is consistent with the law of most other industries.

02 The impact of nuclear accidents on nuclear power exports

Three major nuclear accidents in the history of nuclear power (Sanli Island accident in 1979, Chel in 1986) The Nobelli accident and the 2011 Fukushima accident) both had a serious impact on the development of the nuclear power industry, and inevitably affected the export of nuclear power projects.

The Sanli Island accident occurred in 1979. It occurred on the one hand, it had a staged impact on the development of world nuclear power, and it also made the world aware of the importance of nuclear power safety On the other hand, it has not fundamentally changed the nuclear energy policies of all countries in the world. This is mainly due to the increasingly prominent oil crisis in the 1970s, and many countries still regard nuclear energy as a hope for solving energy problems. After the accident, the United States, Japan, France,Italy, Denmark, the Soviet Union and other countries have expressed that they will continue to implement nuclear energy policies and nuclear power development plans. Therefore, it can be seen that the number of nuclear power exports has not changed significantly since 1979.

The Chernobyl accident is the most serious nuclear accident in the history of the development of nuclear power in the world. It ended the history of nuclear power plant operation for more than 30 years without human injuries. Development has a far-reaching impact, and global nuclear power exports have entered a trough. After the accident, the global nuclear power industry conducted a systematic reflection and implemented a series of improvements, including technological upgrading and reconstruction, building a nuclear safety culture, perfecting the nuclear power operation management system, and strengthening nuclear power supervision, etc., which have created 20 years of stable operation. Practice has proved that the safety level of nuclear power is acceptable. In addition, nuclear power developed countries have developed the third-generation nuclear power technology with better safety performance indicators on the basis of years of good practice in operation and maintenance, which has created the necessary technical conditions for nuclear power recovery.

The Fukushima nuclear accident is a heavy blow to the global nuclear power industry, and the share of nuclear energy in global energy consumption has dropped from 13% in 2010 to 2011 7%. The development of nuclear power in the world has also diverged. Some countries have “abandoned nuclear” or suspended new nuclear power projects to reduce their share of nuclear power, such as Germany, South Korea, and France. Some countries still maintain support policies for nuclear energy, such as the United Kingdom, China, India, Russia, etc. The nuclear power development policy has not changed, and Japan also announced in 2015 to restart the nuclear energy development process. In terms of nuclear power exports, due to Russia ’s aggressive overseas development policies and measures, after 2011, there has been a peak in nuclear power project exports.


03 Analysis of the reasons for deviation

As can be seen from the statistical chart 1, the global nuclear power export and the overall trend of economic growth are consistent, but there are also The situation of periodic deviation. There are reasons for nuclear accidents in this respect, and on the other hand, because international nuclear power projects are not completely market-oriented economic projects. In addition to being affected by economic conditions, their development is also related to energy policies, international relations, technological development levels, and public acceptance Degrees are closely related.

An international nuclear power project from the early development, construction, operation to life extension, decommissioning and post-processing, add up to nearly 100 years, so it is called import and export “100 years of marriage”. The export of nuclear power projects is often affected by factors such as diplomatic relations between the two countries and the geopolitics of the location of the project. These factors not only affect the start of project cooperation, but also the difficulty of obtaining investment and financing for the project. It can be said that the successful implementation of a nuclear power export project requires timely and favorable conditions, including policy support and capital guaranteeIndispensable. For example, China ’s export of nuclear power projects in Pakistan, the friendly political relationship between the two countries is a decisive factor in promoting nuclear energy cooperation, and also an important reason for the project to obtain preferential policy loans.

After 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the economic development of many countries has stalled, leading to increased government debt and weakened financial strength. As can be seen in Figure 1 Global GDP growth is weak. Therefore, nuclear power projects with huge investments and long payback periods face greater funding difficulties. Countries with advanced nuclear power technology hope that they can create more foreign exchange income and wealth for their countries through nuclear power exports, and promote the development of their own industries. Therefore, they have launched active policies to support nuclear power exports, innovated financing channels, and provided more investment The preferential financing conditions promised to help importing countries raise capital for projects. These measures have led to a surge in nuclear power export orders after 2008, as well as increased competition in the nuclear power overseas market. Although the world’s nuclear power export orders have surged in the past 10 years, the financial crisis and the world’s unprecedented changes in the past 100 years have led to slow global economic growth and more challenges in project financing, so there are not many projects actually started after the contract is signed , From the side also reflects the impact of world economic development level on nuclear power exports.


Nuclear power export giant Russia

It can be seen from the analysis that after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, the world ’s economic growth has been flat, but there has been The peak of nuclear power export, which is mainly due to Russia’s aggressive nuclear power development strategy. From 2010 to 2019, there were 30 overseas nuclear power units contracted or started by Russia, accounting for 60% of the total number of global nuclear power units contracted / started. Russia can be said to be unique in the international nuclear power market, which is related to Russia’s national policy to actively promote nuclear energy exports. When Russia first became independent, the nuclear industry directly inherited the Soviet model and operated as a government department. In 1992, the Ministry of Atomic Energy was established, and in 2004 it was renamed the National Atomic Energy Agency. In December 2007, President Putin ordered the reorganization of the Atomic Energy Agency into the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation (ROSATOM), under the direct control of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister. Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Prime Minister Medvedev personally acted as salesmen to promote Russia’s nuclear power business on various diplomatic occasions. Nuclear power has gradually become Russia’s third largest export product after weapons and fossil energy.

Turkish nuclear power plant FCD constructed by ROSATOM

Russia ’s ability to compete prominently in the international nuclear power market is inseparable from its ability to provide preferential and flexible financing conditions. Russia provides ultra-low interest loans to countries lacking funds. In addition, it provides customers with flexible and diverse financing models, including government loans, shareholding systems or the introduction of third-party investments. The sources of funds include the Russian Federation ’s fiscal appropriations, the national sovereign wealth fund, or Give ROSATOM state subsidies, etc.


Analysis and thinking

Global nuclear power exports are positively correlated with economic growth as a whole. Economic growth provides financial guarantee for nuclear power exports, while nuclear power exports are Relations between the two countries, nuclear power policies, and financing conditions are closely related. Drawing on the analysis of the global nuclear power export impact analysis and Russia’s nuclear power export policy, it is recommended to do related work from the following aspects.


01 Targeting countries

Nuclear power export is not simply a market behavior, it is obviously affected by the relationship between the two countries, nuclear power policy and economic conditions, Therefore, we must focus on these factors and accurately target export countries.

The first is to screen the list of countries with geopolitical stability and friendly relations, as the goal of potential nuclear power export cooperation, and to choose nuclear power investment, construction, operation and maintenance that will last for centuries A good environment for cooperation between countries. Secondly, according to whether to formulate an active nuclear power development plan as a condition to narrow down the target list again, select the countries to be cooperated, analyze their industrial and power grid conditions, and seize the demand to actively promote. Third, assess the economic strength and economic development trends of the countries in the target list, and treat them differently. Countries with stronger economic strength are regarded as key development markets, and countries with backward economic development levels are regarded as long-term tracking markets.


02 Improving economy

The current world economic growth is weak, and the construction cost of nuclear power plants continues to rise, the financing of new nuclear power and the rising level of peace Standardised electricity prices have become the mainstay of nuclear power developmentTo be a barrier. Such as the British Hinkley Point C nuclear power project, the total cost of the project has risen from £ 19.5 billion (US $ 24 billion) in 2010 to £ 21.5 billion (US $ 26.5 billion)-£ 22.5 billion (US $ 27.8 billion). The CFD price of the project was determined to be £ 92.50 / MWh (US $ 114 / MWh) in 2012, while the price of wind power in the UK was only £ 40 / MWh (US $ 49 / MWh) on September 20, 2019. . Such a large electricity price gap has caused nuclear power plant suppliers with advanced models to suffer setbacks in cooperation negotiations because of difficulties in financing for buyers, high costs, and unbearable electricity prices.

As Ye Qizhen, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering said, “Nuclear power companies need to accelerate to adapt to the new requirements of the further open and competitive electricity market, from technological transformation and updating, reducing cost, and improving safe operation. Capacity and other aspects are actively taking countermeasures. At the same time, the batch and large-scale construction of the third-generation nuclear power will promote the continuous improvement of its economy. “


03 Innovative investment and financing methods for nuclear power projects

Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has become a new engine of world economic growth, and China ’s investment and financing capabilities have been further strengthened . From the perspective of the amount of funds needed for nuclear power exports, Chinese financial institutions have sufficient funds to support the “going out” demand of nuclear power. However, the current cost of commercial loans provided by Chinese banks is generally high, which restricts China ’s nuclear power from participating in world competition A factor. In the future, you can consider obtaining low-cost funds by setting up overseas investment and financing platforms, issuing overseas debt, or joint investment with world partners. In addition, we can also refer to the investment and financing models of other overseas projects to innovate overseas nuclear power project investment and financing models and channels.

(The authors of this article are Xie Xiaoqin, Li Na, Liu Chuan, the work unit is China Central Plains Foreign Engineering Co., Ltd. The article was first published on the WeChat public account “China Nuclear Industry” Reprinted after authorization. The article was abridged when it was published on WeChat. For the full version, please see “China Nuclear Industry” Magazine Issue 5, 2020)