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China ’s first “Civil Code” stipulates that from January 1, 2021, a divorce agreement in China must go through a “cooling off period”-if a party repents within 30 days after applying for divorce, it can be revoked Application; and, after the 30-day cooling-off period, if both parties did not show up for the certificate within 30 days, then the application for divorce is also withdrawn.

That is to say, in these 60 days, as long as one party has different opinions, the original divorce application will be invalid.

Judging from people’s comments on the Internet, most of them are oppositions and fears of the divorce cooling-off period.

Some people think that the cooling-off period raises the threshold for divorce, making it more difficult for people who are domestically abused to divorce.

But experts say that the cooling-off period only applies to divorce by agreement, and domestic violence usually requires litigation and is not affected by the cooling-off period.

Others believe that the cooling-off period essentially interferes with the constitutional freedom of marriage.

But experts say that the cooling-off period can only stop impulsive divorcees. Those who really want to divorce can still get divorced after one month.

In addition, in the opinion of supporters, because divorce will have a very negative impact on both couples and children, raising the threshold for divorce is also to protect the happiness of children, couples and families.

In addition to these direct goals, everyone also knows the real intention behind this-to reduce the divorce rate through the cooling-off period, to stabilize the family structure and increase the fertility rate.

Let ’s talk today. Is the new divorce cooling-off period really reasonable? To protect marriage and stabilize society, the divorce cooling-off period is really effective?

The logical fallacy of

“Because many people are impulsively divorced, a cooling-off period is required”

Bai Yansong ’s report very well summarizes the views of many supporters: “This is not to limit the freedom of divorce, but now there are more and more such impulsive, thoughtless decisions to divorce.”

In addition, he also pointed out that the divorce cooling-off period has been piloted in the past few years, so it is only now written in the Civil Code.

According to this logic, the rationality of the cooling-off period should be based on at least two conditions: 1) many people divorce impulsively; 2) the results of the cooling-off period pilot are valid and universal.

But judging from the current public reports, there is no direct evidence that there are “many people” impulsively divorced.

Jiang Shengnan cited the data in the “2016 China Marriage and Love Survey Report” and pointed out that the number of “flash marriage and divorce, sloppy marriage and divorce” is less than 5%. Although this data is also somewhat controversial, “the law should not use a small part People’s situation to treat the entire group who want to divorce across the board. ” Other reports have tried to prove that there are many impulsive divorces by proving that “the cooling-off period is actually measured”.

For example, in a 2015 article entitled “Ask an expert before divorce, this service will be paid by the government”, the staff of the Suzhou Civil Affairs Bureau said that of the 16,432 couples who divorced in Suzhou in 2014, Impulsive divorce accounted for more than 1/3.

But what kind of judgment standards does the staff of the Civil Affairs Bureau use to define whether these couples are “impulsive divorces”?

The article only gave a set of data to try to corroborate the high “impulse divorce rate”: In 2014, Suzhou districts dispatched professional marriage and family consultants to persuade 1758 couples to divorce, and successfully persuade 608 Yes, the success rate is 34.6%. But does this mean that one-third of people are impulsively divorced?

A similar algorithm also occurred in an article that reported the court ’s trial of a “divorce cooling-off period” —the reporter calculated that of the 16 couples screened by the judge, 10 couples cancelled the divorce after the cooling-off period expired The litigation led to the conclusion that “the divorce cooling-off period reconciled half of the couple”.

This conclusion is extremely unfounded. It has committed at least two common-sense fallacies:

First, couples who are persuaded or asked to be calm areFiltered.

That is to say, the staff understands that interventions may be more effective on them, so the resulting success rate is not universal.

For a simple example, in a school with all 10,000 students, the principal selected 10 students with the best mathematics for the training of the Olympiad, and finally 5 people got full marks in the Olympiad competition, then this can be Explain that 50% of the students in this school can get the Olympiad full score through training?

Second, how is the reconciliation success measured?

Does the current divorce requirement mean that no divorce will be filed again in the next three to five years? In addition, it is not known whether these “reconciliations” must be withdrawn due to coercion or restrictions.

Does cancelling the divorce application mean “marriage and family happiness are guaranteed”? Just as no one would treat cancer cell removal as a complete recovery of the patient, why can the withdrawal of a divorce application be regarded as a reconciliation of the couple and the lifting of the marriage crisis?

In addition, people with sharp eyes may also find an important message. The proportion of persuasion and success of the Suzhou Civil Affairs Bureau was obtained under the intervention of a professional marriage counselor, rather than a simple “divorce cooling-off period”.

In the past, the real divorce cooling-off period was only piloted in courts in some regions, which means that the successful cases only originated from litigation divorce, not agreement divorce.

So, what is the rationality and validity of the cooling-off period for this divorce agreement?

Divorce, is it equal to “unhappy”?

Although there is a lot of opposition on the Internet, there must be a considerable proportion of people who will support the divorce cooling-off period. There are also a few people who think that divorce is worse than staying in an unfortunate marriage.

So that regardless of whether they understand the marital status of others, many people will very vigorously persuade and even prevent others from divorcing.

For example, a few years ago, a marriage registrar in Wuhan reported that various faults such as network failures and broken machines prevented couples who came to register for divorce, claiming to have saved more than 500 marriages on the verge of breaking up. Her behavior has also been commended, known as “the most beautiful matchmaker”.

This behavior directly reflects the reality under a kind of values—marriage is a symbol of social identity and a trophy.

Owning this trophy, even if it is poisonous, it must be better than not having this trophy.

So many people will be more concerned about the result of divorce, not why others divorce, and the possible consequences of not being able to divorce.

However, marriage is not a tangible thing, but a state of life, an environment where couples breathe every day, and their air.

And a bad marriage relationship is like harmful air, attacking people living in it more or less quickly. Bystanders are not qualified to judge and say, “Even if it is really poisonous, I don’t think it will matter if you endure for another month.”

“The Perfect Divorce”

If it is possible for both parties to improve this harmful living environment, it is of course very good and very lucky. But if you can’t change it, escaping as soon as possible is the wiser and healthier choice.

The most direct evidence is that a bad marriage is directly related to cardiovascular disease; and the older you are, the stronger the relationship. (Liu & Waite , 2014) .

Another study also showed that (Umberson, Williams, Powers, Liu & Needham, 2006) The more dissatisfied people think their health is worse.

That is to say, a bad marriage is not a good thing to endure, but it is likely to become a health risk for the elderly.

Compared to being trapped in a bad marriage, a freer divorce may haveOften positive effects.

A study (Stevenson & Wolfers, 2006) after comparing the divorce laws of the US states, found that the In the state, the suicide rate of women will be reduced by 8-16%, domestic violence will be reduced by 30%, and the number of women killed by partners will also be reduced by 10%.

Not everyone who has been subjected to domestic violence is capable of litigation and divorce. Unfortunately, our law not only does not provide convenience for these weak people, but instead builds a wall on a possible road to liberation , As if they were tortured and turned over by obstacles, not enough.

Zhan Qingyun Weibo

Onlookers often unconditionally oppose the divorce of the couple. Another important reason is also the most lethal reason-the child.

There are still many people who believe that a “complete” family is the best for the growth of children. Even if there are many conflicts, quarrels, violence and cold violence in this complete family, it is better for children A “broken” family.

However, it is not the image of a family composed of father and mother that is beneficial to the growth of children, but the atmosphere created in this family.

Many studies have shown that parents ’divorce will have a long-term negative impact on their children. However, this negative impact does not necessarily come from the divorce itself. The long-term conflicts in these divorced families are the main reason (Zimet & Jacob, 2001) .

In fact, regardless of divorce or not, conflicts between parents are negative to the child ’s mental health development (Emery, 1982) . More importantly, compared with divorced families, there are many conflicting and undivorced families that do more harm to children (Amato & Keith, 1991) < / span>. After the divorce, as the conflict between the parents declines, some of the child ’s behavioral problems will also be reduced.

“Marriage Story”

Divorce of parents is not an original sin for the growth of children. Parents do not need to bear such a heavy burden, and force themselves to be trapped in an unfortunate marriage.

Parents are the most important way for children to gain a sense of security, learn how to understand emotions, and learn how to get along with others. But how can parents provide their children with a safe environment when they are deeply immersed in emotions and relationships?

So, whether it is for both spouses or children, divorce is not a bad thing, and it may even be the antidote to the problem.

Catch the wrong prescription, the same ending

Everyone understands that writing a divorce cooling-off period into law is not just for the happiness of an individual family, it also carries the important task of making society stable and making people prosper.

In recent decades, China ’s rising divorce rate and declining marriage rate have been the obvious major trends. Especially since the implementation of the new Marriage Registration Regulations in 2003-changing the divorce registration within 1 month to get a divorce certificate on the spot-the divorce rate has changed from 03The 1.05 ‰ of the year soared to 3.2 ‰ in 18 years.

So, the answer to whether to reduce the divorce rate is obvious-the difficulty of registering for divorce will increase, and the number of people who will successfully register will decrease, and as long as the average population of our country does not show negative growth, the divorce rate will definitely decrease class = “text-remarks” label = “Remarks”> (Divorce rate in a certain year = number of divorces in a certain year / average population in a certain year × 1000 ‰) .

Research shows that after the divorce cooling-off period started in 2004 in Korea, the divorce rate has dropped significantly (Lee, 2013) . Based on this, we can indeed confidently predict that the number of divorce rates in the next few years will be more “pretty”.

But will this change the trend of falling marriage rates in recent years?

The main force to get married in the future is the post-80s and 90s, but they are also the main force to increase the divorce rate in the eyes of Qian Qian.

In almost all the narratives about the divorce rate and the cooling-off period, young people in the 80s and 90s are “considered” who lack the sense of responsibility and communication and understanding, and are married for impulse in pursuit of a temporary pleasure Only a cooling-off period for divorce is needed to directly restrict their “excessive freedom.”

“The Perfect Divorce”

According to this logic, we have no reason to think that after building a wall for the exit of marriage, young people who just “for the pursuit of pleasure” will be planted in the marriage. They can go after other ways to pursue excitement and sweetness, why should they block themselves?

Similarly, such a young generation who only cares about their own enjoyment and has no sense of responsibility will never want to have children, so we can directly predict that the fertility rate will continue to fall off the cliff.There will be more and more couples, and an aging society will also accelerate.

So, if our purpose is to increase the fertility rate and marriage rate to make the society more prosperous and stable, then the divorce cooling-off period as a solution, its underlying logic and output are precisely contrary to this purpose.

So, the cooling-off period for divorce is more like taking a doctor in a hurry, finding the wrong root cause, and catching the wrong medicine. If you do n’t make changes, there will be no suspense in the ending.

While the current wave of people accuses young people of being impulsive and irresponsible, let us think about the era in which young people live and what kind of future they are facing.

Stable family life? But for the young people nowadays, 996 and even 007 are already the norm of work. It is difficult for them to spend time at home. What can they do to maintain family life?

Did you use the money earned from 996 hard work to stabilize your family life? Not to mention whether it is possible to use money to maintain feelings, that is to say, how much can be used to enhance the relationship between husband and wife after paying off the mortgage and car loan?

Would it be better to have a child to enhance the relationship between husband and wife and stabilize the family structure? So are the school districts from kindergarten to junior high school ready? Even if I spend a lot of money to buy a house, what if the school district suddenly changes? After going to school, who will get away from 996 and give lessons to the children? And after the couple spends all their energy and money on the child, is the relationship between the two more stable?

So, the problems of marriage and childbearing faced by modern society are not caused by the personality defects of young people, but this society makes them have to focus on the gains and losses in front of them, and take care of themselves in anxiety and anxiety.

When social welfare such as weekends, annual leave, canteens, qualified social security, equal education, etc. have gradually evolved into “legends”, we are no longer the people sitting on a boat and paddling together. It is a person who fell into the sea and threw himself desperately for not sinking.

How can such a high-pressure way of survival be based on the hope that the two people can always maintain their hands together?

So, what we need is the boat, not the shackles that hold our hands together when we are thrashing.

References:

1. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020 / 05-20 / 9189196.shtml

2. http://www.dzwww.com/nvxing/yyjk/201501/t20150128_10024164.htm

3. Liu, H., & Waite, L. (2014). Bad marriage, broken heart? Age and gender differences in the link between marital quality and cardiovascular risks among older adults. Journal of health and social behavior, 55 (4), 403-423.

4. Umberson, D., Williams, K., Powers, DA, Liu, H., & Needham, B. (2006). You make me sick: Marital quality and health over the life course. Journal of health and social behavior, 47 (1), 1-16.

5. Stevenson, B., & Wolfers, J. (2006). Bargaining in the shadow of the law: Divorce laws and family distress. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121 (1), 267-288.

6. Zimet, D. M., & Jacob, T. (2001). Influences of marital conflict on child adjustment: Review of theory and research. Clinical Child and Family Psychology Review, 4 (4), 319-335.

7. Emery, R. (1982). Interparental conflict and the children of discord and divorce. Psychological Bulletin, 92, 310–330.

8. Amato, P., & Keith, B. (1991). Parental divorce and the well-being of children: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 26 – 46.

9. Hetherington, EM, Cox, M., & Cox, R. (1982). Effects of divorce on parents and children. In M. Lamb (Ed.), Nontraditional families: Parenting and child development (pp. 233–288). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

10. Lee, J. (2013). The impact of a mandatory cooling-off period on divorce. The Journal of Law and Economics, 56 (1), 227-243 .