Author ｜ Eastland, Director of Tiger Sniff Research
Header Picture | Liang Jianzhang participated in the live broadcast of “selling goods”
In the early morning of May 29, 2020 Beijing time, Ctrip Group ( Nasdaq: TCOM ) disclosed the unaudited Q1 2020 results. The core of epidemic prevention and control is to strictly control the movement and aggregation of personnel, which is naturally contrary to the attributes of the tourism industry. The financial report of Ctrip revealed the extent of the damage to the national economy caused by the epidemic, and also made people smell the recovery.
“Winter” is over
The financial report shows that in 2020 Q1 Ctrip’s total revenue was 4.74 billion, down 42% year-on-year, while in 2019 Q1 revenue increased 21% year-on-year.
The trading day after the financial report was released ( May 29th, Eastern Time ), Ctrip ’s stock price rose 4.85%, and the closing price corresponded to a market value of 15.8 billion US dollars.
Overall, Ctrip ’s performance was less affected by the epidemic than expected.
On March 19, 2020, when the Q4 results for the last fiscal year were released, Ctrip had predicted that Q1 revenue in 2020 would fall by 45% to 50% year-on-year.
In Q1 2020, the revenues of the three major businesses of Ctrip Hotels, Transportation Tickets, and Group Tour were 1.155 billion, 2.393 billion, and 523 million, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 62%, 50%, and 29%.
Hotel booking revenueThe first drop was not unexpected.
The revenue of group tours decreased by 50%, which was much better than the worst-case scenario. There are two main reasons:
First, there is a lag in the impact of the epidemic on group travel. The Spring Festival group tour may be planned for several years, and the whole family has been looking forward to it for a long time, unless it will not be canceled unless it is absolutely necessary. In addition, at the end of January and early February, the outbreak of overseas tourist destinations seems to be mild, and the tourists have a lot of “avoidance” mentality;
Second, there were signs of recovery with group tours in March. After the launch of Ctrip’s “Tourism Revival V Plan”, 350 destinations, 500 routes and 10,000 hotels have joined the country.
The transportation ticket business declined slightly, probably because the transportation department had completed the first half of the Spring Festival transportation during the “closing of the city”, and the “restoration work” in various places has completed the second half of the slightly reduced. The Spring Festival is just what the Chinese need. They have to go home and reunite in any case, and they have to leave home to work in the morning and evening.
Since Ctrip launched “Boss live broadcast + hotel pre-sale”, Liang Jianzhang’s exposure rate is far better than Dong Mingzhu’s, and the last 11 live broadcasts brought nearly 400 million sales. The outside world appeared “Liang Jianzhang three rescue Ctrip”, the first time was “SARS” in 2003, the second was Ctrip’s transformation and mobile, and the third was live broadcast.
In Q2 2020, Ctrip ’s domestic business is expected to fully recover lost ground. But the recovery of overseas business, such as outbound travel and cruise travel, still has a lot of variables.
Liang Jianzhang, who is introverted and does not like to join in the bustling, “running away + live broadcasting” with the rhythm of brushing 1 city in 2 days, and the frequency of publishing articles does not decrease but rises. Fortunately, “winter” has passed, and everything has begun to recover.