This article comes from the WeChat public account:DoNews (ID: ilovedonews)< span class = "text-remarks">, author: li haoyuan, respondents from FIG title

“Wear to wear after riding an electric carHelmet? “

Ms. Cai still hadn’t figured out the latest regulations on the weekend before June 1st. Ms. Cai, who works in the financial industry, works at China World Trade Center. She takes about two kilometers to ride the electric car at the nearest subway station. This electric car was donated by the time-consuming phone call at Dixintong in October last year. The car is not big, and the tram brand just meets the needs of her daily work.

Before that, she either sat on the “little bouncing” of nearby guests or walked. The former may not always be available, the latter is too long, neither is convenient.

A few days ago, she had just heard about the requirement to wear a helmet when riding an electric car. If she did not wear it, she would be fined, but she did not take it seriously. Although riding an electric car every day, this way of travel naturally seems “not necessary to be too formal”, and she thinks it is “hot” to wear a helmet, and it is inconvenient to carry it. lost. When asked what to do if she had to wear it, Ms. Cai said, “If you don’t think about it, if you can’t, just wear a helmet.”

Ms. Cai didn’t know that in the past month or so, there was a possibly tens of billions of “air outlets” that passed her by and disappeared quickly.

A policy-induced “wind outlet”

On April 21, the Transportation Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security issued a notice that the “One Helmet and One Belt” security guard operation will be deployed nationwide: from June 1, the Public Security Traffic Management Department will strengthen law enforcement management and investigate and correct motorcycles , Electric bicycle riders do not wear safety helmets and car drivers do not use seat belts.

Before the announcement, Maybe policy makers did not expect that just adding a check and correcting an electric bicycle to wear a helmet would create a market demand of tens of billions out of thin air.

At the end of 2019, the China Bicycle Association once released data stating that my country currently has nearly 300 million e-bikes in society, among whichIt is second only to bicycles (nearly 400 million), and among them, there are few electric bike riders who consciously wear helmets. Once wearing a helmet becomes a mandatory requirement, with a huge user base, if 200 million people buy it, at a price of 50 yuan per cap, the market demand for helmets will easily break through 10 billion.

Moreover, this requirement has a very clear time limit-from April 21 to June 1 execution, just 40 days. One of the basic principles of economics is that prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Compared with the increase in production capacity, there is a delay. The rapid increase in demand in a short period of time will cause the price to soar.

The following two graphs are the recent price changes of the top-selling products on Tmall and JD.com after searching for helmets. The highest price has increased by 3 to 5 times compared with usual times. In fact, after checking the historical price changes of a number of helmet products with top sales, DoNews found that the price increase of helmet products on the e-commerce platform in the past month was common, only early and late, and even if the price increased, many The goods are still sold out of stock.

Historical Price of Tmall’s No. 1 Helmet Product

JD.com’s No. 1 Helmet Product’s Historical Price

When the price is suddenly changed by the supply and demandAfter the system was raised several times, the original normal trading behavior in the market was also distorted-from the production of materials and helmet-making equipment to the dealers in the middle, every link in the industrial chain began to increase. Alibaba, Taobao, JD.com and other e-commerce platforms began to be out of stock, and the helmets in the circle of friends began to drum the drums at a higher price. There were even news reports that they purchased a batch of helmets and finally sent the helmets on the site.

Ten billions? That was the original price of 50 yuan. When the average price rose to 200 yuan, the market demand became 40 billion. Not only commodities and production equipment, but also the capital market became hot “Helmet Concept Unit”. For example, Yizumi, which manufactures injection molding machines, because the injection molding machines can be used to produce helmets, the stock price has risen continuously, and the highest increase in a single day has reached 9.96%. Companies such as Julong and Sanfu Outdoor, which are related to helmet sales, have also seen their share prices rise significantly.

Yizumi’s stock price changes

After seeing the above situation, Chinese people will feel very familiar with it, and it is exactly the same as the price increase of masks sold out a few months ago, but the difference is that This boom lasted for less than a month, and then came to an abrupt end.

On May 20, the Ministry of Public Security issued a notice: Since June 1, the scope of law enforcement punishment is limited to those who do not wear safety helmets when riding motorcycles and do not use seat belts when driving carsIn violation of the law, there is no punishment for riding an electric bicycle without wearing a safety helmet, but instead conducts publicity and guidance work.

Everyone wanted to stand up when the “air outlet” came. It was only when the wind stopped that the pig could not fly.

As soon as the notice came out, Yizumi’s stock price continued to plummet after May 20, the sales status of the helmet of friends circle began to disappear, and the price of the helmet gradually declined on the e-commerce platform. It’s just that many consumers still remember that they have snapped up helmets that may not be needed at two or three times the usual price, and there are some middlemen who have just got the goods and haven’t sold them.

Is the electric car helmet a fake requirement?

“With the concentrated release of demand for electric bicycle safety helmets, the prices of safety helmets sold by some companies and platforms have skyrocketed.”

After realizing this, the Ministry of Public Security chose to actively communicate with the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration, and instructed local public security agencies to actively cooperate with the market supervision department to strictly investigate price violations in accordance with the law and cut off the illegal chain of driving up the price of helmets. On the other hand, the “one helmet and one belt” operation is required to be properly promoted-electric vehicles will not be fined without wearing a safety helmet, and illegal acts of increasing prices must be cracked down.

Prior to this, the rush to buy helmets looked very similar to that when buying masks. Many people have started to copy successful experience and plan to make a fortune. Why are the results so different? The reason is that these two “air outlets” just look like the underlying logic is very different.

During the epidemic, consumers really want to buy masks. Although helmets are also to protect consumers’ safety, many consumers do not want to buy them, but the government has to punish them for not wearing helmets. I will buy it; but for the government, the epidemic situation must not spread. Even if the price of the mask increases, it is not the time to focus on cracking down on price violations. However, the helmet, as can be seen from the two notices before and after, the masses can consciously It is best to wear the zone, if it causes a distortion of the market-then take it slowly.

Ms. Cai had no idea of ​​wearing a helmet at all. She was very familiar with the two-kilometer journey from home to the subway and had never encountered danger. Her electric car conforms to the new national standard for electric bicycles, and the speed limit is within 25km/h. In her view, this speed is not much faster than that of bicycles.

Mr. Shi also dislikes wearing helmets. He and his wife used to be motorcycle enthusiasts. In addition to two motorcycles at home, he also bought five motorcycle heads.