Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that as of the third week of May, the prices of live pigs and pork nationwide have declined for 13 consecutive weeks. The pork price in the bazaar fell from 59.64 yuan/kg to 46.34 yuan/kg in the third week of February, down 4.0% month-on-month, and the cumulative drop was 22.3%; the price of live pigs also fell from 37.51 yuan/kg to 28.49 yuan/kg, down month-on-month 5.2%, a cumulative drop of 24%. In the fourth week of May, the national average live pig price was 28.89 yuan/kg, up 1.4% month-on-month; the average pork price was 45.98 yuan/kg, down 0.8% month-on-month.
“The pork supply and demand situation has shifted from the phased tight supply and demand in the fourth quarter of last year to the basic balance of supply and demand. Consumption has become the most important factor influencing market trends. The decline is a rebound from the previous continuous decline and does not have the momentum to continue rising.” Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with a surging news reporter that although the current pork supply is still lower than the same period last year, the situation has gradually It is getting better, and it will take time for catering consumption, group consumption and processing consumption to recover.
On the supply side, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu recently stated on the “Minister’s Passage” of the two National Congresses that the number of energy-producing sows will stop falling and rise from October 2019 The growth has resumed for seven consecutive months. By April 2020, it had increased by 18.7% compared with September last year. The live pig inventory has also increased for three consecutive months. According to this momentum, this year’s hog production is expected to return to almost the normal level.
While hog production capacity is gradually recovering, the significant increase in pork imports and the continued supply of frozen pork also have a certain impact on pork prices. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import of pork and pork offal reached 1.77 million tons from January to April, an increase of 114.6% year-on-year, of which 1.35 million tons of pork was imported, an increase of 170.4% year-on-year. In addition, as of May 27, 20 batches of centrally-stored frozen pork have been put on the market this year, with a cumulative volume of 380,000 tons.
For the follow-up price trend, Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Guo Dandan said that the enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter was not high in early June, and coupled with the strict investigation of transportation, the amount of pigs from the north flowing into the south decreased. The supply of local pigs is tight. Although there is no obvious change in market demand, the supply side is sufficient to support the rise in pig prices, and slaughterhouses are under pressure to purchase at low prices, passively raising pork prices. In late June, as the number of slaughtered farmers increased, the hot weather caused a sluggish market consumption. Pork prices are expected to decline, but there is not much room.