This article comes from the WeChat public account:Jurassic Period (ID: newJurassic) , author: Jurassic Zhu, FIG head source: IC photo
Every year, rumors about the expansion of Shenzhen will prevail for a period of time. In my impression, this issue has been discussed for more than 10 years. Especially in some integer years of every five to ten, the rumors have become more slick. This year is the fortieth anniversary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Therefore, the “expansion theory” seems to be more “reliable” than ever.
It must be acknowledged that behind the expansion in Shenzhen, there is a strong public opinion, and the supporting arguments have always seemed to be very sufficient. The consensus view of both the government and the public believes that: Expanding capacity to Dongguan and Huizhou is the most effective way to solve the high-cost problems that have plagued Shenzhen for a long time.
For buyers, once the expansion is settled, the real estate appreciation will be great. For this reason, in the recent period of time, (this is also the case every year), many Shenzhen buyers have been unable to resist entering Dongguan and Huizhou, actively scanning goods.
Maybe everyone agrees on the conclusion. I have been optimistic about Dongguan for the past few years and have written many articles. But the logic is completely different. I am not a supporter of “expansion theory”, but a supporter of “Metropolitan Area”. The difference between the two is that the former is policy logic and the latter is market logic.
Or, whether Shenzhen is expanding, I think this is not a correct question, because it will cause the discussion to be impossible to start, how to talk about the zz problem? Who knows whether to expand or not? When will the capacity be expanded? If you make decisions based on such policy thinking, it is essentially a beating concept, a policy against gambling, which we have always opposed.
The correct question should be: If Shenzhen does not (administratively) how to judge the value of Linshen ? Where is there more opportunity?
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About the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area, since 2016, I have written more than 10 articles. These articles, combined, make a judgment: we have entered the second stage of urbanization-the era of the “megalopolis”. (Everyone usually discusses the first stage of urbanization-this stage manifests that all cities are expanding and all urban populations are flowing in , All urban housing prices are rising).
With second-order urbanization, cities are no longer a game of expansion and population inflows, and there are two main manifestations.
One, Nationwide, population and industry will continue and accelerate their inflow into the metropolitan area, especially in core cities. More other cities are more likely to contract. Second, In the metropolitan area, the industries and population of the core cities will continue and accelerate their spillover to the surrounding “satellite cities”, resulting in “suburbanization”, the urban administrative boundaries will melt, forming a “centered on the core cities” Commuter Circle” (hereafter, “City Return” appears again).
The above is the common course of developed cities in foreign countries. The first thing you usually contact more is the first point, but on the second point, few people talk about it.
Choose the situation of Japan and South Korea that are both East Asian circles for reference (the same is true for the US).
After the first stage of urbanization in Japan was basically completed in the 1970s, the characteristics of population “urbanization” are remarkable. Even though the total population of Japan has entered negative growth since 2008, the population of the metropolitan area has maintained a sustained net inflow, especially in the “Tokyo Circle” unipolarization. Research shows that from the 1974-2014 period, the population of Tokyo’s Tokyo area has moved in 3.5 million people, accounting for 28.3% of the country’s population. The two metropolitan areas of Osaka and Nagoya are superimposed, and the three metropolitan areas have reached the Japanese population. Half of the country.
Continue to see that during the 20-year period of this large cycle, there has been a trend of “suburbanization”. During the 20 years from 1975 to 1995, Tokyo’s population continued to flow out of net, and there was a “hollowing out”, while a large-scale net inflow of population near the “three prefectures” occurred. After 1995, he began to “return to the heart”).
The following picture is more clear. During the 50 years from 1960 to 2010, the overall population of the Tokyo area increased by 2 times, but the total population of the three prefectures around Tokyo increased by 4.35 times. population growth.
(Source: Japan Central Reconstruction Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd. (CFK) Director Yoshino Sawa, “Construction Results of Rail Transportation Integration in Tokyo Metropolitan Area And development experience”, 2015.5)
Look at the situation in Korea.
Look at the picture below, South Korea completed the first phase of urbanization in the 1980s (urbanization rate approaching 70%), from 1980-2010 These 30 yearsThe population of the metropolitan area of Seoul, including Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi, continues to grow rapidly. In 1980, the population of the Seoul metropolitan area was 14.36 million, and by 2010 it had grown to 24.75 million, accounting for about half of the Korean population.
(Source: “The Development of Rail Transit in Seoul Metropolitan Area and Its Enlightenment”, Hu Chunbin et al., 2014)
But a detailed survey shows that the population of Seoul increased from 8.36 million in 1980 to 10.58 million in 2010, an increase of 14%. In the same period, the population growth rates of the two major cities in Incheon and Gyeonggi were 1.45 times and 1.35 times, respectively. The population of Gyeonggi Province, which is the largest in size, was later higher than that of 11.57 million. It is obvious that while the population is flowing into the metropolitan area, the “suburbanization” spillover has also begun inside the metropolitan area.
There is no exception in China, and this process has already happened. In 2019, China’s urbanization rate exceeded 60% for the first time, which can be said to have entered the mid-term of the second phase of urbanization. The scene of urbanization is no longer an imagination, but an iron fact.
On the big side, you can pay attention to the fact that the population flows to the four metropolitan areas-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing Metropolitan Area. For example, in the following 2019, the 10 cities with the largest net population inflows, 7 are in the four metropolitan areas. If you consider the factors of Beijing and Shanghai to control the population, the persuasion will be stronger, and there is no need to spend more time.
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Looking at the situation in the whole country, it is better to look at the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Huihui metropolitan area, which is more targeted.
We believe that the above two features are happening faster in Shenzhen Guanhui. Because Shenzhen is the smallest of the four megacities, it makes it reach the gate of expansion and spillover faster than any megacities in China. My personal judgment is that the suburbanization of Shenzhen’s population and industry is ahead of our expectations.
Don’t talk about the tens of thousands of square kilometers of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. We will compare the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area with the Tokyo Area. The two regions are about the same size. The following is a picture I made myself.
Compared with the core cities in terms of region and population, Shenzhen is similar to Tokyo, with an area of about 2,000 square kilometers and a permanent population of less than 14 million. In terms of overall house prices, Shenzhen has actually surpassed Tokyo by nearly 40%.
Comparison of the entire metropolitan area, the Shenzhen-Guangdong-hui metropolitan area is more than 2,000 square kilometers larger than the Tokyo area, but the overall population is nearly 10 million less than the latter( Even if Shenzhen has a population of 20 million, it is less than 3 million). The GDP gap is even greater. The GDP of the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area in 2019 is probably only equivalent to that of Tokyo 2In 018, 1/3 of GDP was strong, and per capita GDP was only about half of the latter.
The data comparison shows that, although Shenzhen’s population has exploded, the population of the Shenzhen-Dongguanhui metropolitan area still has a lot of room for growth relative to the Tokyo area, and GDP and GDP per capita are still very different.
So, then, if the population of the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Huihui metropolitan area will continue to show net growth in the future, what will happen?
According to the situation in recent years, the cumulative net inflow of population in the three places of Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui and even the whole province of Guangdong is a very certain fact. For example, in Shenzhen, the resident population has increased from 11.38 million to 13.44 million in the past five years, an increase of more than 2 million, with an average annual average of about 400,000. The resident population of Dongguan also increased from 8.25 million in 2015 to 8.46 million in 2019, an increase of more than 200,000. Huizhou’s permanent population increased from 4.755 million in 2015 to 4.88 million in 2019, a slow increase. Over the past five years, Wanhui’s combined population growth has not been as high as Shenzhen’s.
But if we look back, based on the following facts, we think that the second kind of scene, the population overflowing into the metropolitan area, will be a very rapid fact.
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This is based on the following investigations:
1. Shenzhen’s built-up area has no possibility of expansion. I have counted several times before “Shenzhen could not lack land”, subject to ecological control of about 50% (974 square kilometers) The line cannot be developed, and the land available for development in Shenzhen is emptyThe room was nearly exhausted. As of 2018, Shenzhen’s built-up area is 930 square kilometers, about 70 square kilometers from the last depletion. Although there are 468 square kilometers of land available in the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone, it is not realistic to be too far away. It is equivalent to being close to “doing the best”, which is one of the important reasons why Shenzhen’s expansion is expected to be strong in recent years.
This means that Shenzhen has to install more industries and populations. Without administrative expansion, there are only two roads. 1. Compress the ecological line to release stock land. Second, continue to greatly increase the floor area ratio through urban renewal. In view of the extremely low probability of the former passing, Shenzhen has generally taken the second path in the past 10 years.
2. There is a limited increase in volume ratio.
Shenzhen currently has a resident population of more than 13 million people, which is equivalent to a population density of about 13,000 people per square kilometer in the built-up area. If calculated according to the folk caliber, the density is about 20,000 people per square kilometer. This is already very high in the world, even if the population density is calculated based on the total land area-about 10,000 people per square kilometer, it is also very high. Some views believe that Shenzhen can accommodate 30 million people, equivalent to about 30,000 people per square kilometer in the built-up area. I personally think it is too unrealistic.
They may think that simply by greatly increasing the floor area ratio and developing to high altitude, the problem of population living can be solved. However, another fact is not considered at all: where does the package come from?
Urban renewal practices in the past 10 years have been verified. Shenzhen simply cannot afford primary and secondary schools, large and small hospitals that match the amount of residential development-these require a very large footprint(Costly urban renewal cannot contribute at all). We only need to see why the urban renewal in recent years has approved the construction of more and more commercial offices, apartments instead of residential houses, and we will understand this truth. Because the approval of the construction of commercial offices and apartments, according to the current regulations, the government may not provide any supporting facilities, but the approval of the construction of residential houses must be provided.
This contradicts it. It turns out that our assumption that increasing the floor area ratio like Hong Kong can accommodate more people and industries must be unsustainable. In other words, I don’t doubt that the total population of Shenzhen will reach 30 million in the future, but it will never be in Shenzhen’s 2,000 square kilometers. Moreover, the continuous increase in floor area ratio will worsen Shenzhen’s increasingly serious “big city disease”-traffic congestion, housing shortage, high housing prices, industrial relocation, air pollution, especially high costs, high housing prices in housing, in enterprises It is a high factory rent.
3. High house prices will remain high for a long time.
On the one hand, the economy and population continue to grow, on the other hand, the land and housing supply capacity continues to decline. These have determined that for a long period of time in the future, we will have to accept the fact that the housing prices in Shenzhen are gradually becoming Hong Kongized.
I describe the state of Shenzhen in recent years as a “space war”–The four parties of ecology, residence, industry, and education are fiercely competing for land space. Which party is allocated means the resources of the other three parties. Shrink.
The latest data shows that the ratio of residential land to construction land in Shenzhen is 22.6%, which is significantly lower than the lower limit of the national standard 25% (national standard is 25-40% ). The government’s intention is to try to maintain 30% of the red line of industrial land unbroken and 50% of the ecological line unbroken. That means that the competition for housing and supporting facilities will become extremely fierce. You only need to look at how abnormally Shenzhen people have been fighting for a degree in recent years, and how exaggerated the price of school district housing has risen. I will agree with me.
We are eager for Shenzhen to have a good economy, beautiful environment and low housing prices. A fan of mine said that it is also an “impossible triangle” in another sense. The better the economy, the stronger the population adsorption capacity, and the more serious the disease in the big cities-high housing prices are one of the significant signs of disease in the big cities.
These three facts above all lead to a conclusion: In the future, Shenzhen will continue to have inflows of population, and the disease will continue to increase in large cities. Regardless of whether the administrative “expansion” can be achieved in the end, Shenzhen’s population and industry will “relocate”. The market’s own movement will push Shenzhen to break the geographical limitation faster and move towards the metropolitan area.
Here is a crucial piece of data. At the end of 2018, Shenzhen released the planning adjustment for the Metro Phase 4 project, which clearly mentioned that in the future, Shenzhen will have a population of 23 million,The city’s work capacity is 15 million to prepare urban planning, and it is expected that the population will spread to the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui border to reach 1.5-2 million.
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Below, let’s describe the specific characteristics of the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area. Although we all know this term well, we may not know its true meaning.
1. The Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui metropolitan area is an economic concept.
We understand that the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area is not an administrative concept but an economic concept. In other words, no matter whether Shenzhen will eventually expand administratively, this metropolitan area will be formed and will be formed, and there is no power to stop it.
The “Shenzhen City Master Plan (2016-2035)”, which is still under preparation, has clearly injected this idea. At a press conference on the pilot work of planning and preparation held in October 2017, Shenzhen officials clearly revealed that they would “refer to the experience of international metropolitan development… It should be within the radius of 50 kilometers to configure Shenzhen as the core city of the metropolitan area. Resources”. This is a huge change.
This means that Shenzhen Guanhui (in fact, the same is true in the Greater Bay Area) The future will no longer be separate, but the whole Shenzhen Hui as a “giant city” to allocate resource elements. These resources include population, land, capital, technology, etc. As a supporting facility, the government needs to provide permanent services to the three residents to provide public services “including medical treatment, education, transportation, etc.”.
For example, I have always mentioned why Huizhou robs enterprises from Shenzhen? It is entirely possible to introduce one of the world’s largest Disneyland or USJ Universal Studios, grant it 2000 acres of land, and do business for more than 30 million people in Shenzhen and even 100 million people in the Greater Bay Area.You can use your own rich land reserves and ecological resources, you can also form your own urban characteristics, and can form a very good complement to Shenzhen.
2. Shenzhen-Guanhui metropolitan area will be a commuter area.
The metropolitan area is essentially a concept of commuting. The Shenzhen-Guangdong-hui metropolitan area that is not yet will form a cascade structure like “central area-sub-central area-satellite city”. It will not be like the Tokyo area. Concentric circle structure, but a fan-shaped structure. For example, see the group planning in Shenzhen below, with its prominent circle structure.
According to the above plan, this metropolitan area will be a commuter circle with a radius of 50 kilometers. The core area will be Futian-Nanshan-Qianhaibaozhong, and the second staircase will be 7 “city sub-centers” centered on Guangming and Universiade, and then spread to the periphery. It will be a large number of “satellite cities” connected by orbits in the Linshen area. “These areas will be dominated by Fenggang, Tangxia and Songshan Lake. From the periphery to the core, the “1 hour commuting circle” is constructed.
3. This metropolitan area rides on the track.
Referring to the Tokyo Circle, this commuter circle must be based on mass transit public rail transit, not highways. At present, the burden of public transportation in Shenzhen is only about 50%, and Dongguan is only about half of Shenzhen, which means that in the future, Shenzhen Wanhui must accommodate the population of more than Tokyo, and it is necessary to greatly increase the travel rate of public transportation.
As of 2019, Shenzhen’s rail transit mileage is 315.72 kilometers, an increase of 19 kilometers. There are 9 rail transit lines, and the total rail transit passenger volume is 2.032 billion person-times (an increase of 7.7%).
I have compared before, if compared with Tokyo’s 23 districts alone, the mileage of this track in Shenzhen is not short. But the difference is that the track between the core cities in the metropolitan area and the surrounding citiestraffic. As of 2010, the track length of the Tokyo Circle has reached 3,600 kilometers. Among them, the main part is the connection between Tokyo and the surrounding tracks. This order of magnitude is unmatched by the entire Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Naturally, this also heralds the future development direction of the Shenzhen-Huihui metropolitan area. At present, Shenzhen and Dongguan and Huizhou have planned a number of track constructions, such as Line 14 to Huizhou and 10 to Fenggang. Line No. 12, Line No. 12 leading to the Yellow River, Line No. 13 leading to Songshan Lake, etc. Although it seems slow, it must be a trend.
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In summary, we can answer the question about Shenzhen’s “capacity expansion” that was raised at the beginning, which can be summarized in two sentences:
1. If Shenzhen realizes the expansion of (administrative), then the area included in the Shenzhen layout will obviously increase its valuation. But who can achieve sustained and sustainable development will still depend on market forces.
If Shenzhen can “expand capacity”, then the answer is very simple, the Linshen area is similar to the Shenzhen-Shantou cooperation zone. In the short term, the value of real estate will increase rapidly and significantly. It will also play a very positive role in alleviating the disease problem in Shenzhen’s big cities. But in the end, the specific location of Linshen can run longer and further, still depends on the location value of that place in the entire metropolitan area.
2. Regardless of whether Shenzhen is “expanding” or not, Shenzhen Guanhui will eventually move towards a “city circle” based on the “1 hour rail commuting circle”.
In the future, millions of people living and working in Shenzhen will flow to Linshen area. This has actually happened, and it should have been faster. The reason why it is not so exaggerated is not because there are not many people who want to spill over, but because: our metropolitan area is still based on “administrative” thinking, There has been no consensus on the integration of the three places, especially the construction of rail transit and the equalization of public services. The progress has been slow for many years. Once the above-mentioned problems have been resolved and the three places have settled down and the track construction project is launched, the migration trend of Shenzhen white-collar workers and industries will appear very quickly.
Based on this perspective, we can say that Shenzhen white-collar workers are buying houses in Linshen area and businesses buying/renting office buildings in Linshen area are unstoppable trends. Policies echo, go faster, policies lag, go slower, but always go. Compared to staying in Shenzhen and waiting for housing prices to fall, Linshen is a choice of “advance, attack and retreat”-Enter and fight to expand capacity, and retreat to prevent spillover. The former can bring about an explosion, the latter can bring a steady increase, the time is only slow.
Specifically, which area of Linshen will benefit more from the development of this metropolitan area, we will break it down next time.
This article comes from the WeChat public account: Zhu Luo Ji (ID: newJurassic), Author: Zhu Luo Ji