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The second is the cost factor, which involves various aspects such as land, rent, and residence. This is a direct factor that forces Shenzhen enterprises to move to Dongguan.

For example, land purchase, in 2018, a total of 27 industrial land were sold in Shenzhen, covering an area of ​​about 852,000 square meters, with a total amount of about 44.9 billion, and the unit price of land is 52,700/sqm (in terms of floor space). In the same period, 63 industrial land transactions in Dongguan covered an area of ​​3.11 million square meters, with a total amount of about 24 billion yuan. The unit price of parcel land was only 7717 yuan per square meter, which is about 1/7 of that in Shenzhen.

Another example is the rent of office buildings. The current office rents in Shenzhen are all over 200 yuan/month/㎡, while the rents for similar office buildings in Dongguan are only 50-80 yuan/month/㎡, such as T5 in Tianan Digital City in Fenggang, Linshen District. The rent is as low as 20-30 yuan/month/㎡, which is equivalent to 1/4 or even 1/10 of Shenzhen.

Of course, Shenzhen has also endeavored to approve the construction of office buildings in recent years, resulting in a surplus of office buildings, a high vacancy rate and a decline in rents. As well as the outbreak of the epidemic, the office buildings in Shenzhen have also begun to drop rents. There are also many office buildings with unit prices below 100 yuan. But relatively speaking, the office cost of Shenzhen is still much higher than that of Dongguan. In addition, if enterprises consider the living and living costs of their employees, they will still find that they need to raise money early. As I have repeatedly emphasized, a large number of office buildings in Shenzhen can indeed delay the rise in corporate office costs, but this reverse direction has led to further dramatic rises in residential prices, the burden of employees to buy a house is heavier, and the final cost will also have a backlash. In contrast, although housing prices in Dongguan are also rising, the overall price is still only 1/3 of that in Shenzhen. For example, for a price of 40,000, you can only buy Pingshan in Shenzhen, not even Guangming, but you can still buy the best houses in urban areas and Songshan Lake in Dongguan. Overall, Dongguan’s overall cost advantage over Shenzhen is still very large.

But the most fundamental is the third factor. The fundamentals of Dongguan itself are almost as strong as Shenzhen.

Dongguan has a complete industrial manufacturing foundation. This is not an exaggeration. Huizhou does not have it, and Shenshan does not. Dongguan has always been an international manufacturing base. This base has a manufacturing system of more than 30 industries and more than 60,000 products for a long time. This perfect industrial chain is not easily replaceable, or it is simply impossible to replace. It is not that Shenzhen enterprises want to choose Dongguan, but that they are one.

Here we cite two stories to observe Dongguan’s industry from a broader perspective. First, in April 2019, Zhang Wuchang said in a public speech: “I definitely infer that Shenzhen will surpass Silicon Valley, mainly because there is no industrial city around Dongguan that reaches the level of Dongguan. Not only today, there will never be. “

Second, in November 2017, Airbus’s chief technology officer Paul Erimenko said in a public speech that Shenzhen and Silicon Valley are different, “can manufacture software and hardware” (Note that the Airbus China Innovation Center is located in Shenzhen). This speech, my article two years ago “[Shenzhen Observation 3]: Global Hardware Capital + Global Innovation Hub” quoted.

This can be said to be the judgment of the world’s top entrepreneurs/scholars, and naturally they have a solid truth. What they said is obviously not Shenzhen, but Shenzhen + Dongguan. Only when these two cities work together can it make it possible to overtake Silicon Valley. Of course, today’s global “resurgence” has cast a shadow on the future, but the river is vast and the trend will not be reversed.

These two cities, you can say “Shenguan Hui Metropolitan Area” or “Shenwan City”, the essence is the same, they are “one city”-the power of industrial synergy The two cities are tightly and seamlessly tied together, and no one can live without it.

So, I have said repeatedly that Huawei has gone to Songshan Lake and I am not worried, nor do I think it left Shenzhen. On the contrary, I think it just shows that Ren Zhengfei’s vision is ahead of time.(You know, as early as 2005, Huawei began selecting sites in Songshan Lake. At that time, Shenzhen’s The high-cost crisis is not serious).

Furthermore, we faced a deep-seated worry among many Shenzhen people: Will the relocation of enterprises to Dongguan cause Shenzhen to decline? If we stand on the standpoint of “one city” above, this problem does not exist. These two cities do not add up to Shanghai University(but the population has already surpassed), the industry is so indistinguishable from you and me, it is regarded as a city and What’s wrong? In other words, even if we do not regard it as a city, An Neng can stop it? In fact, they are already integrated, it is difficult to separate you and me. Today is the integration of industry, and the next step is the integration of life.Since it is one, why did it decline?

Dongguan moves from “rust belt” to “wisdom belt”

As you can see from the above, we are not worried about Shenzhen enterprises moving to Dongguan at all. Perhaps the result is that only when companies make such moves based on market choices can Shenzhen upgrade better and Dongguan can upgrade better.

This kind of change is already happening. If you haven’t noticed it yet, you won’t dare to accept it in a few years.

The fundamentals of Dongguan itself are needless to say, in fact, on this issue, I think many people do not really understand Dongguan, such as It is the city with the highest proportion of foreign population in China. Dongguan’s private car numbers and Shenzhen is almost flush. Dongguan’s built-up area is larger than Shenzhen. The number of elementary school students can rank sixth in the country. This is a city that has changed but people are not aware of it.

We mainly come to prove that the relocation of Shenzhen enterprises and the investment of enterprises in Dongguan in the country have brought significant changes to the city in recent years.

First and foremost, the most important change is that Dongguan has successfully turned around. If you observe the changes in Dongguan’s GDP after the financial crisis, you will think that the city is over—GDP growth has plummeted from close to 20% in 2006 to 5% in 2009, but since 2014, Dongguan’s GDP growth has basically been all It is stable at more than 7.5%, roughly the same as Shenzhen.

This process is accompanied by the above-mentioned large-scale replacement of enterprises, industries, and populations. Dongguan has successfully achieved the transformation from “manufacturing” to “intelligent manufacturing”-as of today, Dongguan has been the most important intelligence in the world. Mobile phone manufacturing center-In 2018, Dongguan shipped 400 million smartphones, accounting for 29% of the global share. The national brand that we must say represents Huawei’s mobile phones. Note that it is produced by Wan.

Hundreds of state-level high-tech enterprises represented by Huawei and DJI are stationed around Songshan Lake, and have formed a science and technology industrial belt with Shenzhen Bright Science City and Nanshan Science and Technology Park. Whether it is the quality of the enterprise, the ecology of the park, or the development of GDP in recent years, Songshan Lake can be said to be the representative of a new type of science and technology park that has successfully emerged in China in recent years. As of 2018, Songshan Lake ranked 24th in the national high-tech zone and ranked first among prefecture-level cities in the province.

In 2019, Dongguan comprehensively launched the planning and construction of the Neutron Science City. The Guangdong Provincial Government plans to create a comprehensive national science center with the Neutron Science City, Shenzhen Bright Science City, and the Shenzhen-Lomazhou Hetao area as the core carriers.

These are not the Dongguans in our traditional impression. However, many people are still looking at Dongguan with their previous eyes. This is my profound contradiction in recent years. I visited Dongguan 2 years ago and gaveOne description: If Dongguan after the financial crisis is called the “rust belt”, then in recent years, Dongguan has already turned from a “rust belt” to a “smart belt”.

Secondly, a large number of enterprises have moved in, brought about major project investments and a large number of new populations, which has made Dongguan quickly enter the era of “big explosion” of infrastructure upgrades and improvements-this is the most direct impact on the value of real estate . For example, by 2035, Dongguan will plan 473 kilometers of subway lines. Among them, some consensus has been reached on the construction of Shenzhen-Guangdong rail transit, including Shenzhen Metro Line 10 extended to Fenggang, Shenzhen Metro Line 11 extended to Chang’an, Shenzhen Metro Line 6 branch line extended to Tangxia, etc. .

(One of the connection of Shenzhen-Guangdong Metro, extending to Shenzhen Metro Line 10 of Fenggang)

Another point is that the urbanization level of Dongguan is rapidly increasing. In recent years, Dongguan has entered an explosive period of landmark planning and construction-such as Magnolia Bridge, the Central Business District, etc., and the city is currently gathering almost all leading housing companies from all over the country, constantly buying land to build real estate. In our imagined “tattery” Dongguan, the rate of change will be fast.

(Dongguan Binhaiwan Bridge designed by the master of Chinese Academy of Engineering, He Jingtang)

With the industrial transfer, Dongguan is also experiencing significant population replacement. The data shows that from 2010 to 2017, Dongguan wholesale and retail industry employees fell by 26%, the manufacturing population has also decreased, but the number of scientific researchers exploded 10.2 times, IT talent increased by 90%. It can be seen from the above that more of these people have spilled from Shenzhen, and they are more and faster than we thought. This is also the basic support for Dongguan’s housing prices to continue to rise in recent years.

(Dongguan’s various industry population data)

The above summary is my judgment on Dongguan two years ago, “10 million”-a population of 10 million and a GDP of 1 trillion. In 2019, Dongguan’s GDP has reached trillions of dollars, and its population has rushed to 9 million. I believe that this acceleration in the future will be much faster than we thought.

Business/individual choice

In summary, Shenzhen and Dongguan have entered a virtuous circle in the industrial field. “Shenzhen Innovation + Intelligent Manufacturing in Dongguan” must be the most important core engine in the Greater Bay Area in the future, and it must also be China’s business card in the world.

So, for companies/individuals, if your company or you need to go to Dongguan, how should you think and make the most beneficial choice for yourself?

My suggestion is to follow the following standards:

1. Select the area within the “50km commuter circle”.

“50km radius circle” is the idea in the “Shenzhen City Master Plan (2016-2035)”. This is a city plan based on market and science. Shenzhen will definitely arrange industries and tracks according to this in the future. , Satellite city, population, etc. Therefore, this must also be our basic idea of ​​choosing to relocate to purchase/lease real estate(Of course, youIf it is the Dongguan City School, that is another set of logic). Only within this radius circle will you be able to enjoy the future public investment in Shenzhen and the relatively convenient two-city switch between Shenzhen and Dongguan. According to this idea, areas like Fenggang, Tangxia, Songshan Lake, Chang’an, etc. can be included in the scope of focus.

2. Select the area with rail transit planning through.

As mentioned above, the Shenzhen-Guangdong-Hui Metropolitan Area must be a commuter circle riding on rail transportation, considering that the number of vehicles in Shenzhen + Dongguan is approaching 7 million units(should be the highest in the world), the future must and can only rely on mass transit rail transit. Then office/life in the area with rail transit will be the lowest cost option. According to this logic, we must focus on screening and comparing the rail transit plans of Shenzhen and Dongguan, and find the rail transit docking areas of the two places, such as the lines mentioned above.

3. Choosing the type of property does not necessarily have to buy a house.

Know that the concept of “expansion” has been screaming for too many years, and residential owners in the Linshen area have actually advanced the “expansion” in advance by a considerable amount. This is especially true this year. For example, in Fenggang, where the expansion is expected to be strongest, many owners have already stopped selling. In this case, to choose a house, it is equivalent to spending the money after the “expansion” to buy the “expansion” undecided house. If it is not self-occupied, it is not necessarily the best option.

If it is an enterprise that needs to be relocated to Dongguan, I think instead, I should buy/long-term rent an office property suitable for the area earlier. There are many benefits. One can meet the actual expansion of its own company. According to the current speed of Shenzhen enterprises relocating to Dongguan, it is difficult for Dongguan to always have sufficient supply of industrial land. Although Dongguan is now begging Shenzhen enterprises to go, the policy subsidies for cheap land prices are also large, but the more difficult it is to continue in the later period. If an enterprise predicts that it will move sooner or later, it is very necessary to plan for it early. Second, the cost of buying/long-term rental of office properties in Dongguan is cheap. In the Linshen area with rail connections, office properties with good quality and management can be bought at a unit price of 10,000 yuan. This cost is not the same. Half of the price of regional housing. For example, in Fenggang, the unit price of the office building is more than 10,000, and the house has been sold for 30,000/sqm. The enterprise can satisfy the actual use, and can also have a fixed asset to resist inflation. Three, there is also a very important reason. At present, buyers are all projecting the expansion expectations to the residence. The production and office properties have basically not been “greened”. Naturally, there is no pre-expenditure for the expansion expectations. Greater margin of safety. Personal choiceChoose another one.

4. Select the “more likely to expand” area.

Frankly speaking, this has a taste of fighting policy, and it is only provided as a way of thinking of advancing and retreating. Because policy matters are not clear, there is no analysis to start. It can only be said that, assuming the final expansion, who is most likely? If there is no capacity expansion, it does not matter. With reference to Article 1, the region with the most geographical advantage may be the most likely. For example, Fenggang is a place where an inverted triangle is inserted into the territory of Shenzhen. In the eyes of many people, it is not scientifically included in Shenzhen. The fundamental reason for Fenggang’s anticipation of this year’s fever is its special location. Of course, this is just a speculation based on expansion.

In general, the above can be used as the selection principle under the expectation of capacity expansion. The fundamental logic is that we have to re-examine the relationship between Dongguan and Shenzhen. Regardless of whether there is an administrative expansion, Dongguan has been quietly welcoming Shenzhen’s “expansion” for several years with open arms. Under this fact, there is another administrative expansion. For the landing area, it can only be said to be even more powerful. Even if it finally fails, it will not affect the Linshen region’s continued open arms to welcome Shenzhen’s large-scale spillover of enterprises and population.

The judgment of the underlying logic of the underlying market is the biggest starting point for our decision.

This article comes from the WeChat public account: Zhu Luo Ji (ID: newJurassic) , author: Zhu Luo Ji < /span>