bel=”small title” class=”text-sm-title”>four, subway mileage
Line mileage is a basic indicator to measure the strength of urban rail transit.
The “Urban Rail Transit 2018 Annual Statistics and Analysis Report” released by the China Urban Rail Transit Association shows the scale of rail transit operating lines:
1. Shanghai and Beijing rank first and second with 784.6 kilometers and 713 kilometers respectively.
2. Among the provincial capitals, only Jinan, Haikou and Taiyuan have no rail transit operations.
As of the end of 2018, a few cities have built subways but have not yet opened to traffic, including Xuzhou and Wuhu. The potential population flow in their cities is expected to increase significantly in the future.
▼ Rail transit line mileage of each city at the end of 2018
Data source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research
V. Resident purchasing power
The purchasing power of residents can be divided into absolute purchasing power and relative purchasing power. We use the “disposable income of urban residents” to measure the absolute purchasing power of urban residents, and the “price-to-income ratio” to measure relative purchasing power.
▼ Absolute purchasing power and relative purchasing power of each city
Data source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research
It can be seen that the absolute purchasing power of first- and second-tier cities is high but the relative purchasing power is very low. The housing price-to-income ratio in Shenzhen reached 38.3, 23.55% higher than the second-place Beijing’s 31.
Changzhou, Wuxi, Zhoushan, Taizhou and Huzhou belong to areas where the housing price-to-income ratio is less than 10 and the per capita disposable income is above 57,000 yuan. That is, the residents of these cities have relatively strong absolute and relative purchasing power.
What is the difference between 2020 VS 2019?
On this basis, we compared the observation results with our report “59 City Prosperity Handbook” (2019 edition) released in 2019, and we can find:
1. Under the impact of the epidemic, the average inventory digestion cycle of 59 cities has risen, and the impact is even greater in third- and fourth-tier cities.
In the first quarter of 2020, the continued downturn in the real estate market during the epidemic led to a rise in the inventory digestion cycle of most cities.
The average inventory digestion cycle of 59 cities rose from 11.88 to 13.89, an increase of 16.92%, and the per capita inventory of 59 cities rose by 4.45%.
The third and fourth tier cities are more affected than the first and second tier cities.
According to statistics, 9 of the 59 cities in the third and fourth tier cities have an inventory digestion cycle of more than 15 months, accounting for 52.94%.
The inventory scale in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased, and the trading market has cooled slightly recently, which has slowed down the speed of sales. In the future, we need to be alert to the risk that the continued increase in the inventory scale will lead to a significant expansion of the sales cycle.
2. Judging from the land acquisition layout of 61 real estate companies, there is still a clear preference for high-energy cities.