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When iResearch and QQ Survey surveyed 1,034 first- and second-tier electric private car users across the country, among the decisive factors in choosing charging piles, charging speed became the most direct reason for attracting car owners. 60.8% of private car owners were very concerned about charging Speed ​​and efficiency.

The average charging time of DC charging piles is 1 hour and 54 minutes, 85% of users can finish charging within 2.5 hours, while the average charging time of AC charging piles is 5 hours and 45 minutes, and 66.2% of users need more than 5 hours of lengthy The charging time, the nearly four-hour gap between the two, directly determines the most obvious use bias of the car owner.

Combined with the second and third factors, distance and charging price, DC fast charging piles operating at a low price strategy in core locations and around main traffic lines will become the first choice for electric vehicle owners.

Moreover, the above survey is aimed at private car owners. For special vehicles such as taxis and online car-hailing vehicles that are particularly sensitive to time costs, have long daily driving distances and high charging frequency, they have higher requirements for charging efficiency.

B. The increase of DC pile power and the decrease of cost

In terms of the proportion of fast charging of public piles, the proportion of DC fast charging piles with a global power exceeding 43kW in 2019 was 23%. China has contributed a lot to this. In China, this proportion reached 35%.

The reason has been repeatedly emphasized, that is, my country has a higher demand for fast charging DC piles. So powerThe rise of the slab can cater to market demand and will also strengthen the competitiveness of DC piles.

The average power of new DC piles in 2019 is 115.76kW. Due to the increase in battery capacity of new energy vehicles and the development of high-power DC charging technology, it is expected that the power of DC piles will continue to increase within a reasonable range.

In terms of cost, it has also fallen along with technological progress and the expansion of industry scale. The charging module is the core equipment of the DC pile, and the cost accounts for 50%. In 2019, the cost of the DC charging module will be as low as 0.4 yuan/W, which is one-third of that in 2016 and one-fifth of that in 2014. It alleviates the funding difficulties of charging pile operators in investing in DC piles, and also promotes their enthusiasm for building more DC piles.

C. The increase in power battery capacity of new energy vehicles

The fast charging performance of the power battery determines the ceiling of the fast charging pile. The development of the DC fast charging pile requires the cooperation of the power battery. Power manufacturers such as CATL and BYD are working hard to increase battery energy density to enhance battery life. The energy density of new pure electric passenger cars in 2019 has basically exceeded 120Wh/kg, and the average cruising range has exceeded 300km.

The increase in the cruising range of new energy vehicles has increased the practicability of high-power DC public piles, and has accelerated vehicle owners’ preference for DC piles. This is the key reason why DC piles will become the direction of future public pile selection.

2. Private stakes will become the main force to increase the ratio of vehicle stakes

Although the construction of private piles differs greatly from expectations and the proportions of European and American countries such as the United States, the demand is still strong. The owners of new energy vehicles at night do not need to charge quickly, and they are more concerned about the availability of charging sites, Low-cost and safe charging, fast charging DC pile is more suitable for daily supplementary emergency charging needs.

So in the future, with the advancement of measures such as community reconstruction, private pile sharing, and the inclusion of charging pile equipment into the construction plan of new communities, the rate of private pile construction will gradually increase, and the absolute number will far exceed public piles. Become the main force to increase the ratio of vehicle to pile in my country.

Private piles are basically AC piles suitable for long-term charging at night, so they have a strong crowding out effect on public slow-charging AC piles. According to the “Annual Report on China’s Charging Infrastructure Development 2019~2020”, my country’s public charging piles increased from 57,800 in 2015 to 516,400 in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 72.89%, while private charging piles increased from 80,000 in 2015. The number of units increased to 700,300 units in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 206.17%, three times that of public piles. The proportion has also increased significantly from 12.16% in 2015 to 57.67% in 2019, surpassing public piles.

Most new energy car owners will get a free private charging pile when buying a car, and the cost is only a few thousand, and they will also give a car charger, which can be directly connected to a household 220V socket for charging, but the charging time is too long. MostlyTwenty to thirty hours is a helpless move and will not impact the construction of private exchanges to a large extent.

3. The anode material is the core point of the breakthrough in the fast charging performance of power batteries

As mentioned earlier, the fast charging performance of the power battery determines the ceiling of the DC fast charging pile. Here is a little bit more about how to improve the fast charging performance of the battery.

If you want to achieve the same efficiency and time as fuel-fueled vehicles, you need to complete 80% of the charging within 5 minutes. Based on the current average single-vehicle charge of 50kWh for pure electric vehicles, DC piles with 480kW power are required. At present, most of the DC charging piles on the market have a power of only 60kW. Even the average power of the new fast charging DC piles added in 2020 will only reach 120kW. If you consider that the actual charging power is often much lower than the design power of the charging pile , Then the charging efficiency of electric vehicles is still quite different from that of fuel vehicles.

In fact, it is not difficult to improve the power of charging piles technically. The maximum power of the leading companies above can reach more than 300kW, but if the power battery is subjected to long-term high-power charging, the lifespan will be reduced and the safety will be greatly reduced. The increase in electric charge of electric vehicles is the general trend, and the increase in fast charging power is needed.

So the key to realizing fast battery charging is to improve the fast charging performance of the battery and adapt it to high-power charging.

The anode material of power lithium battery is the core point of whether it can break through the fast charging performance.

The negative electrode reacts with the electrolyte to form a passivation layer, which is close to the surface of the negative electrode, and Li ions can be freely inserted and extracted. Therefore, this passivation film is called the “solid electrolyte interface film”. Namely SEI film. The SEI film is insoluble in organic solvents, can exist stably in the organic electrolyte solution, and can prevent solvent molecules from passing through, avoiding the damage to the electrode material caused by the co-embedding of solvent molecules, thereby greatly improving the cycle performance and use of the electrode.l=”小title” class=”text-sm-title”>1. Improving the utilization rate of charging piles is the core condition for profitability under the current operating model

The weak profitability of charging pile operators has become a consensus in the industry. Only the two leaders of Special Call and Xingxing Charging claimed to have crossed the break-even line and began to make profits. The reason is that the business model is single, and service fees are the main income channel. Therefore, the profitability of public charging piles depends on two factors, the utilization rate of a single pile and the price of service fees.

In the current fierce competition in the industry and users are extremely sensitive to charging fees, it is difficult to increase the price of charging services in a short time. Many cities will stipulate the upper limit of charging service fee when formulating the charging pile management regulations, and the national average upper limit of charging service fee is 0.8 yuan/kWh.

However, under the competition pattern of hundreds of charging pile operating companies, manufacturers continue to lower service fees in order to compete for users and engage in vicious competition. As a result, the actual price per unit is far below the upper limit, which is about 0.5 to 0.6 on average. Yuan/kWh, the most outrageous Taiyuan actual charging price was once as low as 0.1 Yuan/kWh.

Therefore, improving the utilization rate of charging single piles is the current focus of all operators, and it is feasible.

IRR is calculated for the service fee and utilization rate of public DC piles. When the service fee is 0.5~0.6 yuan/kWh, the utilization rate of a single pile needs to reach 5%~6% or more to reach more than 8%. The level of internal rate of return has outperformed currency depreciation.

Also, if the price of 0.6 yuan per kilowatt-hour is selected, taking 60kW DC piles as an example, the discount rate is 7%, and the single pile utilization rate is increased from 8.7% to 10.6%, which can be shortened by 2% when it is increased by about 2%. The dynamic investment return cycle greatly reduces the problem of long investment return cycle in the charging pile industry and improves corporate profitability.

How to improve the utilization rate of charging piles, in addition to increasing the investment and construction of DC piles mentioned above, more reasonable site selection, more intelligent and meticulous guidance by operators, and policy design are all important, so we can follow The goal of improving utilization and enhancing industry profitability is to study future trends.

In addition, in fact, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the business model of operators. It is too wasteful of resources to charge service fees alone, food is tasteless, and room for imagination is also lackluster. I will also discuss how to change business models later.

2. The industry develops deeper and smarter

(1) Smart layout of DC fast charging piles, using data to improve safety

The expressway is the place where car owners have a hard demand for fast charging piles. The National Grid is a major participant in the construction of charging piles on highways in China. The density of charging piles within the business area reaches 16 units/100km, while the average European highway There are 33 charging piles/100km, of which Norway even reaches 780/100km, which is a necessary reason why its new energy vehicles account for more than 50%. Therefore, the layout of DC fast charging piles in traffic arteries will become a major trend.

Similarly, how to rationally arrange fast charging piles in other places such as shopping malls and scenic spots? Operators can monitor the electric vehicles in the platform and use the data information such as the number of electric vehicles in the area, average daily charging, and mileage. Do a good job of intelligent planning, more efficient investment and construction.

In terms of urban trends, the replacement of new energy vehicles is gradually infiltrating from first-tier cities to second- and third-tier cities. Market shares such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen. The construction of charging piles in second- and third-tier cities has accelerated. In medium-sized cities with less dense populations, smart The reasonable layout of public fast-filling piles is more important, otherwise the utilization rate will be lower. Various companies are also developing in the direction of smart and meticulous operation, such as the “box-variant smart group charging” of Special Call, the monitoring system of Easyite, and the intelligent selection of 66 fast charging stations.

Fast charging piles also have safety concerns. Through monitoring and analysis of battery system voltage, current, and temperature changes during the charging process, intelligent charging safety warnings can be realized. According to the data platform of Telacom, by the end of 2018, the cloud platform of Telacom’s big data has safety monitoring and protection for more than 37.8 million charging processes, triggering 258,000 active protections, and it is expected to prevent 20-25 major accidents. The proportion does not seem to be However, every major accident that may occur is a desecration of life and will cause immeasurable loss of reputation to the company.

(2) C-end private pile: intelligent and orderly charging

Public fast charging piles in the B-end areas such as buses and taxis have a large demand for charging, which can bring cash flow in the short term and long-term profits are also considerable. However, in the process of sinking of new energy vehicles, a larger market No surprises are the C-end private passenger cars. Private piles are mainly delivered with the car, and the operation is mainly car companies.

The utilization rate is very stable because it is for my own use, and there is no need to consider utilization service fees. In terms of safety, because the charging time is low at home, almost all of them are slow charging, so there is no risk. In terms of operation, it may be more important to consider the charging costs and the impact on the grid.

Most private car owners will charge immediately after returning home from get off work. Peak hours are concentrated between 6pm and 12pm, peak load is between 7pm and 9pm, and the load rate is between 40% and 50%. It just happened to overlap with the peak period of daily electricity load. In densely-used communities, especially the old communities, the grid had a greater impact. In turn, there was a trough period of about 8 hours in the early morning, and the load rate was below 20%.

Because there is little difference between peak and trough electricity charges in many places, car owners will find it convenient to charge after get off work. It is difficult to change this habit.

Is it possible for car companies to operate private piles in the future in terms of combining local electricity consumption, electricity tariff trough prices, car owners can actually charge at night and other actual conditions to intelligently and orderly guide car owners to make the best choice, just like the iPhone will According to the user’s habit, the extremely slow trickle charge after the mobile phone is charged to 80% at night, just before getting up in the morning, and the user experience will gradually improve. This is worth thinking and learning about new energy private pile operation.

(3) Construction and advantages and disadvantages of substation replacement

The construction speed of swap stations is amazing. From August 2019 to February 2020, the number of swap stations increased by 63.3% from 245 to 400. The top three operators are Aodong, 183, 123, 94 in Weilai and Bertan. As of September 2020, the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance has updated this capacity to 525 seats, an increase of 31.25% compared to February.

The cost of building a station in the battery swap mode is high, and the battery specifications are difficult to unify, but it has high operating efficiency and can quickly replenish energy. There are no safety hazards and battery life degradation issues, so it is suitable for use in buses and operating vehicles. Because private cars are highly customized, they generally need to find their own car companies. Weilai is at the forefront of sales of electric vehicles in my country. This is also an important reason why Weilai can sit in the second place in the power station.

3. The design guess of the policy

Recalling previous policies, due to the uncoordinated development of vehicles and piles, the support for electric vehicles has gradually weakened, and the focus has shifted to supporting service facilities for charging piles, but the overall subsidy pattern is still “national subsidies for vehicles and land subsidies for piles” . Under the opportunity of the new infrastructure, the top-level design of the central government and the implementation of local policies have played a calming role in the operation and development of charging piles.

Actually, in the “New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021~2035) released in December 2019 for comments, Pointed out the direction, namely high-power, intelligent, network platform.

The sixth chapter of the draft for comments clearly proposes to improve infrastructure construction, and high power means that the focus is on the construction of DC fast charging facilities, and subsidies will be more concentrated in this area, especially for new energy buses. Large and medium-sized cities with more vehicles and operating vehicles. However, because we will continue to set construction targets from the two dimensions of absolute number and vehicle pile ratio, private piles are indispensable as the main force, and the trend of promoting the construction of charging piles in residential areas and encouraging the collaborative construction of private charging piles and public charging stations still exists.

Different from the previous blind development and over-emphasis on the number of subsidies for investment and construction, the second point of intelligence has new requirements for the direction of subsidies, and the direction of policy support will also shift from encouraging investment to considering investment, operation, platform, and users from multiple perspectives. Operational subsidies will be linked to the quality of operations, and truly provide precise support for companies that adapt to local conditions, rationally deploy, intelligently operate, and user first.

The third point of network platformization shows that the use of network traffic data by operators and the interconnection between platforms are beginning to attract attention, and new business model innovation will be encouraged.

At present, more than 20 provinces and cities across the country have begun the construction of local government charging information monitoring platforms. In 2020, Shanghai will even begin to subsidize according to the information interconnection and time-sharing mode. It is also conceivable that because public charging piles are valued by the state and the investment and construction are extensive, it is difficult to show their role without interconnection, so the government will also support the upstream and downstream related charging pile industryCooperate with the parties and coordinate the interests of all parties to maximize the interests of industry development.

In general, it is a reasonable and inevitable choice for the policy to follow the trend of the charging pile industry and help operators develop soundly.

4. The business model has shifted from a simple charging pile operation to a comprehensive travel service operation

The income of charging pile operators is currently almost entirely dependent on service fees. The highest price of service fees in most cities is restricted by local policies to ensure that the cost of using electric vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles. Moreover, under the current fierce competition, the service charge of charging piles is as low as 0.5-0.6 yuan/kWh, and operators have a single profit, meager, and long payback period.

In the future, the intelligentization of electric vehicles is also the general trend, and the super-large traffic entrance of charging piles will inevitably generate new profit directions. Therefore, charging pile operators create a “charging pile +” profit model, and the transition to integrated travel service operations is the future.

(1) It is easier to obtain financing for integrated travel service operations

Not only is the quality of operation more and more important in policy subsidies, the current market funds are also more inclined to invest in excellent and profitable operators. Companies that are the first to develop integrated travel services will trigger a huge siphon effect under the blessing of new infrastructure. In addition, the transformation of the business model requires a strong ability to integrate resources, and companies that have obtained a larger amount of financing are also likely to widen the gap with competitors, complement each other, and the strong will remain strong.

(2) Utilize the advantages of traffic entrance to develop value-added travel services

Car owners looking for public charging piles need to use mobile apps such as special call, e-charging, AutoNavi map, etc., as a large-scale entrance to the flow, charging pile head enterprises can rely on their own scale to accumulate a large number of users, and communication, cloud computing, The organic integration of technologies such as smart grid and Internet of Vehicles can not only use the big data of user information to optimize the placement of charging piles to improve utilization, but also tap more data value and expand more business models and application scenarios, such as shopping malls, Commercial entities such as stadiums, movie theaters, restaurants, scenic spots, etc. cooperate to develop “charging piles +” value-added services, which not only improves the quality of users’ travel services, but also brings diversified income to operators.

The United States is smarter and more diverse in the selection of public charging piles. Operators have cooperated with commercial giants such as Best Buy, Safeway, Whole Foods Supermarket, Ikea, etc. to install charging piles in the parking lots of their chain stores, making the new The average time that energy vehicle owners stay in the store is three times as long as before, which drives more consumption, which is worth learning.

In addition, my country’s C-end private users use public charging piles less frequently, and brand awareness is not fixed. To increase user stickiness, you can also promote more services within the app. Car sales, leasing, financial lending, selling peripheral products, and cultivating community functions can increase profitability, deepen the connection between operators and users, and deepen traffic barriers.

For example, the special caller app brings traffic through the basic function of querying the location of charging piles, and then distributes some coupons to attract users to browse, and then cooperates with Jingdong Baitiao and China Merchants Bank to develop financial services. Sell ​​some products, increase profit diversity, and community functions, etc., and use social methods to enhance car owner loyalty.

Be able to make good use of the big data of charging pile flow, do a good job of intelligent operation, develop diversified service methods, and transform into a comprehensive travel service provider, then the business cycle of charging pile operators will be significantly extended.

(3) Light asset platform operation

Currently, most of the major leaders of charging piles are in a state of heavy asset operation, and they are involved in multiple links. They are fully responsible for the investment, supply, construction and operation of charging piles. They are both equipment manufacturers, construction operators, and overall solutions. Providers, this model will have a relatively negative impact on profitability and debt ratio.

With the two major trends of operators focusing on operations and specialized division of labor in the industry, operators will also develop in the direction of light assets, focusing on their advantages in construction, operation and maintenance, and services, and focus more on To platform development.

Domestic public piles have been connected to various charging pile platforms, but there is still a long way to go for charging and data sharing of private piles. American car companies often choose to cooperate with professional operators when building private charging piles, which is reasonable Division of labor to maximize shared benefits.

ChargePoint’s market share in the United States exceeds 75%. There are 112,800 charging stations worldwide. It adopts an asset-light model and does not own charging pile assets. Its business income mainly consists of cooperating with car companies to sell charging pile products. And the networked charging piles charge network fees, transaction fees, and maintenance service fees, and set up different management systems for various application scenarios such as private, private, and public use, so that owners can choose the charging mode independently, and the operation is very detailed and in-depth.

5. Multi-party participation in the sand table deduction

The charging pile market is far from mature, but it has attracted too much attention. The gap in the number of charging piles and clear policy guidelines have also attracted more new players who are not limited to traditional operators.

Moreover, new players can easily see the detours taken by the previous industry, learn to reverse the required resources from the application scenarios, and then combine their own advantages to enter various subdivisions, prompting continuous changes in the operation pattern and industry ecology, and optimizing the production of the industrial structure The catfish effect is expected to promote the healthy development of the industry. We sort out the strengths of all parties, and then deduct and explore possible cooperation and confrontation.

Private enterprises: such as Terad and Xingxing Charging, which have formed a certain scale advantage, relatively flexible in operation and strong service capabilities, but under greater financial pressure;

State-owned enterprises: State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, etc., which have powerful grid resources and strong financial strength, but the market mechanism is relatively backward;

New energy car companies: Tesla, BYD, Weilai, etc., have their own models, and have strong customer stickiness, but because they are not the main business, their overall strength is slightly weak;

Real estate developers: Vanke, Evergrande, etc.,Necessary site resources, but need to seek cooperation with the operator;

Internet companies: Didi, AutoNavi, etc., have advantages in terms of flow and capital, but they are asset-light operations, without core technology and asset-heavy operation experience.

(1) Competition and cooperation among operators

Operators are the core role of the charging pile industry. Operator-led is also the main operating mode of the charging pile industry at this stage.

In terms of competition, the charging pile industry is highly concentrated, and leading companies are leading the general direction. However, in recent years, the market share of the three leading companies of Special Call, Star Charging and State Grid has declined slightly. On the one hand, the company no longer blindly invests in construction. The slowing down is also due to the joining of more competitive new players.

The major operators have gradually established their own SaaS software service platforms, which can simultaneously face users and merchants, but the willingness of each company to share data is not strong, resulting in low interoperability of vehicles and piles, and forcing greater operational capabilities Weak companies exit.

As for new competitors, Huawei’s DC charging module and the joint venture charging pile construction and operation company established by CATL need to pay attention to. The two powerful technologies, manufacturing capabilities and cost advantages are expected to accelerate breakthroughs in battery and charging technology, and may also reduce the price of charging facilities through market competition.

In terms of cooperation, the current coordination of various charging pile operators is mainly reflected in the monthly reporting of data to the China Charging Alliance to connect to the national electric vehicle charging infrastructure monitoring platform, promote inter-industry interconnection and avoid competition Prices are further reduced and profitability weakens.

(2) The coexistence of self-built piles by auto companies and cooperative pile construction models

Tesla is a representative of self-built charging piles by auto companies. As of the first quarter of 2020, Tesla has built 1,917 super charging stations worldwide and more than 17,000 charging piles. The cumulative sales of Model S/X/3 electric vehicles are 986,000, with a vehicle pile ratio of 58:1, and Lots of space. TesThere is also this logic in pulling such a high estimate.

In my country, as the production capacity of the Shanghai factory rises, the importance of Tesla’s global layout has become increasingly apparent. On November 6, 2020, Tesla officially released Weibo stating that by the end of this year, nearly 650 super charging stations will be built in my country, with a total of more than 7,000 super charging piles and AC charging piles covering major cities across the country. And the connecting lines between cities, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta have higher distribution density.

More new energy car companies cannot achieve the scale of Tesla. It is a wise choice to adopt the model of cooperating with operators to build piles. For example, car companies install private charging piles for users who have the installation conditions for private charging piles, and provide 1 to 2 years of operation and maintenance and warranty periods. Professionals do professional things, which can easily provide car owners with a better charging experience.

The development of operators in public charging piles also requires the cooperation of car companies. The first is the intercommunication of physical interfaces, which requires a unified standard between electric car manufacturers and charging pile manufacturers; it can also integrate the vehicle behavior data of car companies, including car owners Intercommunication with operators on driving habits, driving trajectories, car duration, and surrounding environment to break information shackles, achieve full coverage of charging data, vehicle data, grid data, environmental data, and user data, and promote a more reasonable and more refined layout of charging piles Operations and more professional services. However, the distribution of benefits will become a key link in whether cooperation can be promoted.