The retail price limit of domestic refined oil met the first “four consecutive drops” in the year. The national development and Reform Commission announced on August 9 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current oil product price formation mechanism, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) will be reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on August 9, 2022. The price increase is equivalent to a reduction of 0.10, 0.11 and 0.11 yuan for No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel respectively< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > after this price adjustment, the retail price limit of refined oil has undergone 15 adjustments since 2022, including 10 increases and 5 decreases. After the rise and fall offset each other, the cumulative increase of gasoline and diesel was 1610 yuan / ton and 1550 yuan / ton respectively, and the price of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel increased by 1.26 yuan, 1.34 yuan and 1.32 yuan respectively< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > among them, after the four consecutive landings in late June, the high prices of gasoline and diesel have been “cooled down”, with a cumulative decline of 1110 and 1070 yuan, and the price of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel reduced by 0.87, 0.92 and 0.91 yuan respectively< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > the short-term consumer oil cost has decreased. According to the calculation of Zhuo Chuang information, a commodity information agency, after this round of price adjustment, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, it will cost about 5 yuan less to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline than before. In terms of fuel consumption, take a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 l per 100 kilometers as an example. Within the time before the next price adjustment window opens (24:00 on August 23), the fuel cost of consumers will be reduced by about 7 yuan. In the logistics industry, take the heavy-duty truck with a monthly mileage of 10000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers as an example. Before the next price adjustment window opens, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will drop by about 195 yuan< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > according to Ma Jiancai, an analyst of jinlianchuang energy, in addition to the high price markets in Tibet and Hainan, the price level of No. 92 gasoline will be 8.40-8.55 yuan / L, the price level of No. 95 gasoline will be 8.9-9.1 yuan / L, and the price level of No. 0 diesel will be 8.1-8.2 yuan / L, which is significantly lower than that before June 28. Recently, the domestic wholesale and retail price difference has slightly decreased compared with the previous period, and the profit space of gas stations has narrowed slightly. However, the weakening of downstream demand has intensified the competition in the terminal market, and the preferential power of gas stations has not decreased. It is understood that at present, the preferential range of gasoline in main gas stations is mostly 0.4-0.8 yuan / L, and that of diesel is mostly 0.3-0.5 yuan / L. the preferential range of social gas stations is significantly higher than that of main gas stations, and the preferential range of gasoline and diesel is about 0.6-1.5 yuan / L< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > considering the current fundamentals of the crude oil market, the “five consecutive drops” of product oil is already on the way< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > MA Jiancai predicted in the analysis report that because the current international market weighs the two major factors of supply and demand, investors will continue to wait and see, and the probability of a new round of price adjustment “five consecutive falls” is high< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > Li Yan, crude oil analyst of Longzhong information, said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of product oil price adjustment will start with a downward trend. At present, the market is still worried about the economic and demand prospects against the background of the interest rate increase. In addition, the negotiation on the Iranian nuclear issue is expected to take a new turn, and there is potential room for supply increase. It is expected that the next round of price adjustment and reduction of refined oil will be more likely< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > Yang Xia, product oil analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, believes that in the next cycle, we should pay attention to the support of US crude oil futures at US $90 / barrel and guard against the risk of falling. From the macro perspective, the market is worried that the risk of recession is significantly lower than before, which can be seen from the rebound of risk assets, and the pressure on the oil market in the short term is reduced. However, from the fundamental point of view, the demand has started to shrink, especially the gasoline demand in the United States and Europe has declined, and the market’s fear of recession has become a reality. Although OPEC + controls output to support oil prices, the reduction in demand cannot be changed, and the international oil price is mainly weak and volatile. At the beginning of the new round of price adjustment cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is in the negative range, which means that there is a possibility of “five consecutive falls” in the new round of product oil retail price limit adjustment.