Capital “Gods” game to the end
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “glycopyrrolate Department of Finance hotspots” (ID: glh_finance), Author: cut oranges.
The stock market is frantically arranging people amidst violent turbulence, and the throne of China’s richest man is frequently changing hands.
On March 3, Zhong Sui-sui became the richest man in Asia; on March 9, Ma Huateng defeated the US$63.1 billion Zhong Sui-sui with a net worth of US$64 billion and regained the throne of China’s richest man.
The secret of Xiao Ma’s success is just two words-“Fighting”.
In 2020, there will be a global flood, and the wealth of the rich will rise. When the richest man sees which company’s stock price rises higher; now, the liquidity turning point is coming, and the comparison is who will fall less.
Last year, Zhong Suisui’s two companies, Nongfu Spring and Wantai Biotechnology, went public one after another. In particular, the stock price of the former has soared, and the owner’s wealth has also risen. At the time of the best X, Zhong Suisui’s net worth was as high as 92.3 billion U.S. dollars, surpassing Facebook Zuckerberg and ranking fifth in the world’s richest people.
This year, Nongfu Spring’s share price retreated from a high of HK$68.75 and has fallen by more than 35% so far; Wantai Biotech also lost all its gains this year yesterday, a higher level It has fallen by about 37%.
Recently, the collective correction of “core assets” has greatly reduced Ma Huateng’s net worth. However, compared with Zhong Suisui’s loss of one-third of his wealth, Tencent’s 11% drop has allowed Xiao Ma to successfully climb to the top.
The big drop is a whetstone for testing the quality of the rich, and it is also a yardstick for testing the size of foam.
01 Highly listed, crazy bubble
When liquidity is loose, the market will always give high valuations to newly listed companies.
In 2020, the popularity of global IPOs is second only to the eve of the financial crisis, and the total size of the A-share market has reached 470.7 billion yuan, a new high since 2010. Everyone is rushing to go public at this moment, nothing more than in order to enjoy the benefits of a valuation premium in an environment where currency is over-issued.
It’s just that, driven by the power of “grouping”, whether the company or investors, it seems that this kind of market generosity is mistaken for the company’s own value. As for institutions, they understand, but it does not prevent them from “adding fuel to the fire.”
So you can see that among the newly listed companies last year, many high-quality companies filled with bubbles have emerged, such as Nongfu Spring, Arowana, and Amico.
Analyze rationally, Nature porters with strong marketing ability, “Moutai in oil” necessary for meals, and hyaluronic acid gods with a gross profit of 92%, regardless of the track It is the quality of the enterprise itself, which can undoubtedly be equated with the word “high-quality”.
The A-share market has always had the problem of insufficient high-quality assets. It is hard to come up with a core asset. On the premise that the market is not bad, it should be more expensive.
It’s just that these stories are too big. The company called its own endorsements, securities firms published research reports to tout, and a large number of unexplained media followed up, and the market sentiment suddenly became crazy. Few people cared about the so-called rationality of valuation. They are all overwhelmed, and the behavior of investing in high-quality assets has become pure hype.
When the market as a whole goes up, all kinds of monsters will come out and declare that they are “good companies.”
There is no shortage of rational people, but after all, the stock price is still a game between longs and shorts. When the general environment is good, the long side is always right.
As Lin Yuan said, There is a bubble in Baotuan stocks, but not to hold it is against the market!
History has proven countless times that people who oppose trends often die miserably.
After staying in the stock market for a long time, I feel more and more that the truth of many elderly people is not ridiculous. Mr. Buffett said, Never go short, because even if you are right, you may not last until the end.
Is Tesla bubbled?Only then did I know who was swimming naked.
03 Conclusion
In the book “Securities Analysis”, Graham’s definition of “investment” is: based on a detailed analysis, and on the premise of confirming the safety of the principal, pursuing satisfaction The behavior of profit, all behaviors that cannot meet the above conditions are speculative behaviors.
Bao Tuan has a certain degree of rationality. High-quality enterprises, growth tracks, and mature business models are all first-class investment targets.
However, if the limelight is overwhelming, it should also experience periodic cold winters.
Similar to the evolutionary law of natural ecology, before regaining a new life, a batch of bubbles must be blown off as a whole, and then a batch of “pseudo core assets” that have been refilled should be eliminated.
It’s the old saying, the sky will be bright, and the darkness will be strong; the hurricane will pass over the hill, but the grass will remain.