If there is no way statistically controlled within 5% target, and it is not far away from the upgraded regulation
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “Cherry big house” (ID: ytdfz8), Author: Cherries.
01
I saw a news of Wuhan’s housing price control the day before yesterday, the price increase of new and second-hand houses this year should not exceed 5%.
At that time, I felt that Wuhan is really smart.
Especially compared with Nanchang, he is too wise.
This is the correct posture to take the initiative to be a good student. Under the banner of unshakable regulation of housing prices across the country, who dares to relax the regulation is really stupidly hitting the gun.
As for how to achieve 5%, it is up to the urban and suburban areas to balance the average price. Originally, this round of market is also divided. Sell more suburban properties and lower the average price. Just fine.
No matter whether it can be adjusted to less than 5% in the end, at least the attitude is correct, and the goal is to be commended first.
Because the 5% target is the red line in the statistics that house prices can rise every year in various cities across the country, and if it exceeds it, it will be upgraded.
We reviewed the previous cities and suggested that the housing prices should be controlled within 5% of the cities. Typical examples are Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Xiamen.
But when the market started, everyone just bought a house and seemed to have forgotten this goal.
In the last hot spot, the real estate price actually far exceeds this target.
If it is statistically impossible to control it within the 5% target, then it is not far from the upgrade control.
Do you understand what I mean?
I recently heard from my classmates in Wuhan that the real estate in Wuhan Optics Valley East is very lively.
02
The property market in many cities is picking up. Even Zhengzhou, which has been frozen for four years, has thawed.
I looked at a comprehensive survey of 25 real estates in 7 areas from Mizhai to Zhengzhou and found that most of the real estates have a small Z. Compared with last year or the beginning of the year, most of the Z were around 500 yuan/square meter. /strong> The Z width of Guancheng District is too large.
With a few hundred yuan, the people in Zhengzhou’s real estate circle are very excited. The long four-year winter is finally over, and the warm spring is finally here.
But this is how the property market is. Everyone buys Z not to buy down, and not to buy when it goes down. Once it starts, immediately follow the trend to buy, afraid that there will be Z in the future, so the market will spread and the speed will be Speed up, so it is often the bull short and the bear long, the bear four years, and the bull one year.
The heat of Shanghai has also begun to spread to the Shanghai-circling areas, and the transactions in Kunshan, Huaqiao, and Jiashan are all on the rise.
BJ’s March second-hand housing transaction volume is expected to be 21,000 units. The figure below is as of yesterday, plus about 2,000 units today and tomorrow, and the entire first quarter is expected to be 52,000 units.
Didn’t many people ask me that BJ’s trading volume declined in January and February this year? Is the market dying? Some people were frightened when the illegal loans were checked in January and February. In addition, it is normal for the transaction volume to drop a bit during the Chinese New Year.
I have also seen some people predict that BJ’s house price will be D this year, and they will definitely slap their faces later.
Currently, there are only 45,000 sets of restricted-competition housing stocks that are not yet on the market, and most of them are outside the Fifth Ring Road. They have been quickly sold out, and there are fewer and fewer options later.
Newly-listed commercial houses are more of unlimited price, and land prices have risen again. It is difficult not to drive second-hand houses. The total inventory is still around 65,000 sets. Everyone still has a chance to choose and seize the opportunity.
This year’s market will be very good. I expect the annual turnover of second-hand housing to be between 200,000 and 250,000, because the demand that has been suppressed for three years needs to be released.
03
I saw Crane’s first quarter transaction data this morning, whether it is a quarter-on-quarter or a year-on-year basis, it is very eye-catching.
Of course, it’s not uncommon to be better than 2020. After all, there wereepidemic. But better than 2019 means that the market has indeed improved.
In the first two months, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in 80 key cities was 76.74 million square meters, an increase of 128% and 45% over the same period in 2020 and 2019, respectively.
Xi’an is worse than 2019 because the market in Xi’an is very hot in 2019.
Overall, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in 9 key cities across the country was 7.46 million square meters in March, a increase of 91% month-on-month and 72% year-on-year.
According to the specific daily transaction data, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Xiamen and other cities have started “Xiaoyangchun”, more than 100% month-on-month, and the rest of the cities also have different degrees of growth at the same time and month-on-month basis.
Only Dalian and Shenzhen have not yet turned positive year-on-year. Sales in Dalian continued to be sluggish, with a volume of only 70,000 square meters in March.
After Shenzhen imposed price restrictions on second-hand housing in February, bank loans adopted government-guided prices, which were much lower than market prices, which was equivalent to reducing leverage, and the market immediately froze.
04
I recently asked my assistant to run a lap all over Shenzhen. I haven’t finished the run yet. I will tell you about the situation after the Ching Ming Festival is over.
At present, there have been Shenzhen, Dongguan, Chengdu, and Wuxi proposals to establish a government reference price mechanism for second-hand housing.
Of course, only Shenzhen is the real power, because only Shenzhen has set a reference price for all communities and requires banks to lend at the reference price. Other cities have only proposed proposals and have not acted yet.
If you really do like Shenzhen, it will have a 100% impact on second-hand housing. Because it is equivalent to reducing leverage. House prices are essentially built on leverage. If you don’t have leverage, what else is there.
Shenzhen’s decline is not surprising, I said, the current round of Shenzhen’s market has been over, and it was crazy for a year last year. Are you still not satisfied? It’s time to adjust, otherwise it’s abnormal. What you want is a long cow instead of a mad cow.
Shenzhen is the first to enter the adjustment period every time.
Then other cities will follow.
Remember, the real estate cycle, the ups and downs cycle, the cycle that can’t be escaped.
Whether you can grasp the cycle and step on the correct cycle depends on whether you have the courage. If you step on the correct cycle, you can avoid a lot of detours, take the wrong cycle, and have to struggle for several years.
I have been busy doing courses every day recently. Yesterday my assistant went to Chengdu, and I had to make time to write a manuscript.
The course is almost finished. I hope to help you grasp the ups and downs cycle, teach you how to judge the cycle signals, and learn how to choose a house. After writing the manuscript, record it as a video.
Let’s look forward to it. It took me a lot of hard work and I will definitely not let you down.
In addition, the city analysis of third- and fourth-tier cities that I promised you to write has not been sent out because I want to research and write it again. This is more true and credible. I may have to wait after the Ching Ming Festival. After Qingming, I want to go to the third and fourth lines of Zhejiang to investigate.
Because of the recent report of Country Garden I wrote last week, the performance has declined very sharply. Yesterday I communicated with the executives of another leading real estate company. They said that Country Garden’s strategic direction is probably wrong, Only strong The third line will be better, and the poor third and fourth lines will become more and more difficult in the future.
So now the strategic direction of large real estate companies is to resolutely return to the first and second tiers and the strong third tier, and in the third tier, they are also concentrated in good locations, and the division of locations will be obvious in the future.
You really can’t buy a house indiscriminately.