New energy vehicles have now stood firm at the starting point of real growth, and a healthy and sustainable new energy vehicle industry is taking shape.
Currently, we are in the midst of a major transformation in the automotive industry. We are lucky because we can try to continue Track and research to perceive the general trend of industry changes, and share and communicate the big opportunities that may be hidden in it.
In 2020, the stock price of the new energy vehicle sector will continue to be racing. I believe that many Tesla and car owners have made money back from the stock income. The model of buying stocks and sending cars is too fragrant. Up!
So for some lemon spirits who have not grasped this round of opportunities, can they prepare for the next wave of opportunities through the day after tomorrow?
Through the demonstration in the text, I found that the new energy vehicle industry has just stood firm at the starting point of growth, and there is still much to do in the future! Although the stock price has been declining recently, it makes people feel at ease. It’s healthier to fall, and all good opportunities come out.
1. Index resumption: Ten years of foreshadowing, once peaking
New energy vehicles kicked off from the government’s launch of the “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” plan in 2009. After a three-year cultivation period, the annual domestic sales of new energy vehicles in 2011 was 8,159 vehicles, which was much lower than expected.
But this has not shaken the government’s determination to develop new energy vehicles. The industrial development plan released in July 2012 still insists on achieving annual sales of 500,000 vehicles in 2015, 50 times in 4 years, and achieving annual sales of 2 million vehicles in 2020. , 4 times in 5 years.
The capital market is generally more difficult to respond to this target. If the government does not have new measures to further stimulate the market, the planning target can only be a castle in the sky.
Finally at the end of 2012, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles used in conjunction with the industrial development plan began to be put on the table, and the purchase tax exemption policy was not absent. Since then, a relatively long-term rise in the new energy vehicle industry has begun.
However, any early-stage support policy for any industry will have an exit mechanism. Starting in the second half of 2016, the supporting role of subsidies began to collapse, accelerate the decline, cheat compensation, and chaos in the industry, and the double-point New Deal has not yet succeeded.
The entire industry has entered a three-year bear market. Compared with the beginning of 2012, the excess income has returned to zero. Where did it come from and where it went? It has been a lively experience in ten years.
This can’t help but torture the soul, does new energy vehicles have a future? ? ?
But everything turned around: starting in the second half of 2019, the new energy vehicle industry began to stage a bottoming out. The epidemic in 2020 is only an intermission during the rapid rise of the sector, and the cumulative excess return in one and a half years was as high as 150%.
Ten years of foreshadowing, once at its peak, typical stocks have experienced a huge expected transition from life hanging by a thread to unlimited prosperity.
Source: Wind, Dolphin Investment Research
(Note: According to the data on March 19, 2021, the top ten constituent stocks of CS new energy vehicles are Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, Pioneer Intelligent, Ganfeng Lithium, Ningde Times, BYD, Sanhua Intelligent Control , Inovance Technology, Enjie, GEM, accounted for 50% of the total, and most of the battery industry chain targets.)
Talking about this, you should probably be curious about why new energy vehicles will rise again in 2020? Will this round of rise be the same as the previous round, where will it go back and forth?
2. The core question: Why will the new energy vehicle industry explode in 2020?
Through the above review of the driving factors of stock prices, in fact, the industrial logic of the previous ten years is very clear. The biggest driving factors of the industries that the government takes the lead and key support is undoubtedly the government policy.
The traceability and predictability of government policies are relatively poor, and if the industries that rely on policy support cannot quickly increase their profitability and viability, once the policy support is withdrawn, their performance and valuation will be very bad. awful.
So starting from the second half of 2019, when the industry’s previous core driving factor subsidy policy did not produce positive expectations, what is the logic for the outbreak of new energy vehicles again?
First of all, I think there are three main points of core variables:
1. First of all, the core driving factors of the industry have changed, from subsidy policy to market supply, and a healthier new energy vehicle industry was born;
2. Next is the addition of the intelligent trend. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles are more suitable carriers.
3. The above two reasons are inseparable from the catalysis of a common event, that is, Tesla is domestically produced. Don’t underestimate the impact of a car company on an industry. In fact, Tesla’s contribution to the domestic new energy car industry The driving force is indispensable.
Next, let’s analyze it in detail:
(1) First of all, industry drivers have quietly changed, shifting from subsidy policy to market supply
The early government subsidies are like baby walkers in the growth of new energy vehicle companies. New energy vehicles rely on subsidies to make a profit.
But after the subsidy is gradually withdrawn, how can new energy car companies improve their ability to make money in order to survive?