Huang He’s Guide: In the past three months of 2021, many coffee brands have completed a new round of financing: the boutique coffee chain M Stand Completed the first round of financing of 100 million yuan, 10 stores were valued at over 700 million after investment; specialty coffee chain Manner received a new round of financing after December last year, with a post-investment valuation of US$1.3 billion; Canadian coffee brand Tim Hortons completed With a new round of investment from Sequoia Capital and Tencent, it plans to open more than 200 stores this year. In addition, companies from other racetracks have also continued to enter the domestic coffee market. Tongrentang began selling health coffee, new tea brands like Heycha and Naixue launched coffee drinks, Sinopec and Liancafe launched a new brand of Easy Coffee, and Oyo Hotel launched “Fenran”. “Coffee brand…
Enterprises of various backgrounds have entered the game one after another, and there are players in all price bands and consumption scenarios. What are the opportunities for the development of the domestic coffee market where masters gather? This article will analyze the development status of the coffee industry and investment and entrepreneurial opportunities, hoping to inspire everyone.
This article is from WeChat official account:Sanwan Food Research Institute (ID: sanwanshipin) span> , author: thirty thousand capital Roujia, the original title: “10 stores valuation of 700 million, there are new opportunities which experts gathered in the coffee circuit? “, the head picture comes from: Visual China
Main content of this article
Overview of the coffee industry;
The development of the coffee industry in Japan;
The development of my country’s coffee industry;
Operation model and development status of domestic coffee industry;
Investment and entrepreneurial opportunities in the domestic coffee industry.
I. Overview of the coffee industry
1. Coffee is one of the three largest non-alcoholic beverages in the world, and its consumption is concentrated in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan
Coffee is known as one of the three major beverages in the world(the other two are tea and cocoa). Daily coffee is made from coffee beans through different cooking methods. Coffee beans refer to the fruits of the coffee tree (called berries) benevolence. Generally speaking, coffee needs to go through the steps of planting, picking, green bean processing, roasting, and extraction to change from a mountain crop to a drink.
In terms of production area, the ideal coffee growing area is between 25° north and south latitude. The average annual temperature in this area is about 20°C, and the average annual precipitation is between 1000~2000mm. The three major coffee producing areas in the world They are located in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America.
In terms of coffee consumption, due to differences in the popularity of coffee culture and the purchasing power of residents, coffee consumption varies greatly among different regions. Coffee consumption is mainly concentrated in developed economies such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. Countries and regions, green coffee beans are mainly exported from developing countries to developed countries.
2. In the past ten years, the global coffee production/consumption CAGR is about 2%~2.5%, showing a steady growth trend
Global coffee production increased from 8.0520 million tons in the 2010/11 production year (October to September) to 2019/20 The production year was 10.1302 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.58%; global coffee consumption increased from 8.26 million tons in the 2010/11 production year to 10.555,000 tons in the 2019/20 production year, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.20%. The growth rate of global coffee production/consumption is relatively slow, indicating that the global coffee market has entered a more mature stage of development.
3. In the past 200 years, European and American countries have gradually evolved into specialty coffee after three waves of coffee.
The first wave occurred in 1940~1970, the rise of instant coffee represented by Nestlé. The initial development of instant coffee was mainly to solve the problem of overproduction of Brazilian coffee beans in the 1930s. In 1938, the Brazilian government jointly developed instant coffee with Nestlé, which transformed coffee from an agricultural product to a standardized product. Coffee began to circulate in the form of coffee powder. During World War II, coffee was used as an armament and cultivated people’s coffee drinking habits.
The second wave appeared in 1971~2000, the expansion of brand chain cafes represented by Starbucks. At this stage, drinking coffee has become a comprehensive experience of enjoying coffee and social leisure. Consumers’ demands for coffee are not only a single refreshing effect, but also leisure and social attributes begin to appear.
The third wave from 2003Years continue to the present, the development of specialty coffee. People pay more attention to the origin, variety, picking month, altitude, and processing methods. Roasting pays more attention to the original flavor of coffee beans, and hand-punching has become the mainstream.
4. The industrial chain is divided into three links: planting, deep processing and circulation, and product innovation is concentrated in the downstream circulation end
Upstream planting and initial processing, the final product type is green coffee beans. The processed green coffee beans will be packed into standard 60kg sacks, enter the trade link, and be sold to midstream roasting factories or traders. The cost of coffee planting mainly includes irrigation, fertilization costs and labor costs. Internationally, the production cost of major coffee producing countries is 12~13.5 yuan/kg. The upstream planting process is relatively scattered, and the participants are mainly small and medium coffee farmers, large planting bases and plantations.
The midstream deep-processing link refers to the process of roasting green beans to mature beans. The main participants are various roasting factories. Green beans are the main cost of this link. At the same time, there are transportation, gas, equipment depreciation, labor, etc. The roasting plant will increase the price by 50% to 60% on the basis of the total cost. Generally speaking, domestic cafes, hotels, etc. The prices of coffee beans purchased by B-end companies are concentrated in the range of 50 to 150 yuan/kg.
The downstream circulation links mainly include wholesale and retail. The diversification of product forms and channels in the retail sector accounts for a high proportion of the entire coffee industry value chain, and is a high-frequency zone where innovative models occur. The types of coffee products for end consumers are divided into three types: pre-packaged coffee, ready-to-drink coffee and freshly ground coffee. Major manufacturers focus on these three types of business to innovate their products to compete for the consumer market.
Second, the development of the coffee industry in Japan
1. Coffee was introduced to Japan along with the Western lifestyle and entered a period of rapid development in the late 1960s
In Japan, the emergence of coffee originated at the end of the 18th century. At that time, Dutch residents living in Nagasaki began to drink coffee, and coffee began to appear in Japan; in 1877, Japanese coffee began to be imported in bulk and commercialized; in 1888, Japan’s first A coffee shop opened in Tokyo, and the habit of drinking coffee continued to penetrate; in 1937, the number of coffee imports in Japan reached 140,000 bags; after that, due to the impact of World War II, coffee imports were interrupted until the liberalization of coffee imports in 1961, and imports were imported this year About 250,000 bags of coffee. However, during this period, compared with green tea, coffee was still not a mainstream beverage. Coffee consumers were mainly wealthy adult urban residents.
In the late 1960s and early 1970s, with the widespread penetration and dissemination of instant coffee and cafes, as well as the introduction of ready-to-drink canned coffee and the expansion of self-service vending machines, the consumption of coffee among the younger generation was promoted. Driven by multiple factors, coffee consumption in Japan has increased rapidly. In the past 50 years, Japan’s coffee consumption has soared. At present, Japan ranks third among global green coffee importers, second only to the European Union and the United States.
The rapid development of coffee consumption in Japan is mainly due to the following reasons:
1. With the westernization of living habits, people’s daily consumption has undergone significant changes.
2. Product innovation and market promotion, from the initial promotion of instant coffee to roasted and freshly ground coffee, diversified and suitable product forms for different scenarios meet the needs of different users.
3. The number of attractive coffee shops continues to grow, and coffee is gradually becoming professional without the support of teahouses. In 1982, the number of coffee shops in Japan reached 162,000.
4. Developed convenience stores and unmanned vending machines have promoted the development of canned coffee.The Japanese canned coffee market has continued to prosper since the introduction of vending machines in 1962. There are more than 5 million vending machines in Japan, half of which are used to sell beverages, including coffee.
2. The penetration rate of coffee in Japan is as high as 90%, with an average of 11 cups of coffee per person per week
From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of Japanese coffee in 2012 was as high as 89%, and in 2016 it was 90%. The penetration rate is stable, indicating that the coffee industry in Japan is mature and the market has reached saturation. From the perspective of the number of cups of coffee, the average person in Japan drank 11.1 cups of coffee per week in 2016, an increase of 11% compared to 2002.
It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of coffee consumption in Japan is mainly driven by middle-aged and elderly people aged 40 and above. The penetration rate of coffee and the number of cups cited by young users under 39 have shown a negative growth.
From 2002 to 2016, the penetration rate of coffee among young users aged 18 to 39 and the number of coffee drinks per week showed a downward trend; conversely, there was an upward trend among middle-aged people aged 40 and above, especially The growth rate is particularly obvious among the elderly over 60 years old.
As we mentioned earlier, in the 1960sFrom the 1970s to the 1970s, the Japanese coffee industry developed rapidly due to multiple factors. At that time, it was the youth of this group of people over 60.(1960s~1970s) , the coffee consumption habits developed in youth extend to old age, which also explains the addictiveness of coffee; on the other hand, Japan’s aging trend is serious, coffee can effectively reduce the incidence of heart and brain diseases, and drinking coffee is suitable for old age Human health needs.
From the perspective of coffee consumption scenes, coffee consumption in Japan is mainly at home, accounting for more than 50% of the total; followed by work/study places such as offices & schools; dining in cafes and other places The consumption of service places is relatively low, and the downward trend has been significant in recent years.
From the perspective of consumption of different types of coffee, instant coffee and roasted coffee beans are the main consumption, which also fits with the Japanese coffee consumption mainly at home. You can use roasted beans to make freshly ground coffee at home, or make coffee. Drink instant coffee that is easy to store. However, in terms of growth rate, the proportion of freshly ground coffee and canned ready-to-drink coffee has increased, while the proportion of instant coffee has shown a downward trend.
The enlightenment from the development and rise of the coffee industry in Japan:
With the development of the economy and the increase in income, the westernization of lifestyles, the penetration rate of coffee will continue to increase.
The promotion of innovative coffee products suitable for different scenarios and the convenience of purchasing channels will boost coffee consumption among new people.
Coffee is an addictive product, and the drinking habit developed in youth will continue into middle-aged and old age.
As the penetration rate increases, the home scene will also become the main consumer place.
Three, the development of my country’s coffee industry
1. Development history
my country’s coffee industry has entered a period of accelerated development, with multiple models and formats coexisting and developing.
As early as the end of the 18th century, French missionaries introduced coffee to Yunnan Province. Since then, my country has entered a long embryonic period of coffee culture. The development of my country’s coffee industry can be roughly divided into three stages.
Instant coffee emerged from 1980 to 1996. In the 1980s, instant coffee brands Maxwell and Nestlé successively entered the domestic market to launch instant coffee, marking my country’s entry into the era of instant coffee.
From 1997 to 2014, various types of cafes emerged and developed. In 1997, my country’s Taiwanese coffee catering brand Shangdao Coffee entered the mainland market; in 1999, Starbucks with Italian coffee culture entered China; in 2011, the rise of Korean coffee represented by Man Coffee; followed by a variety of local coffee in my country Pavilions appeared one after another.
From 2015 to present, new domestic coffee brands have emerged, and multiple models have flourished. In recent years, due to changes in consumer concepts, economic development and maturity of Internet technology, China’s coffee market has begun to expand rapidly, and various new models and new formats have emerged one after another. Different from European and American countries, which are gradually transitioning from instant coffee and brand chain cafes to specialty coffee, various coffee models such as premium instant coffee, specialty coffee, self-service coffee machines, coffee shops, tea and coffee, etc. have developed in parallel in the coffee industry in my country. Jointly seize the domestic market.
2. Investment and financing analysis
Offline coffee shops and specialty retail coffee are popular investment tracks in recent years.
From 2014 to 2020, the amount and amount of financing in my country’s coffee industry showed significant volatility. In terms of the investment company model, from 2016 to 2017, the investment model is dominated by the self-service coffee machine model, and from 2018 to 2020, it will be the coffee shop and boutique retail coffee model.
The retail format of self-service vending machines began to appear in coastal cities such as Guangdong in the 1990s, and it has been in my country for 30 years. When unmanned retail was popular in 2017, self-service vending machines were the three major types of unmanned retail (unmanned convenience stores, unmanned shelves, and self-service vending machines) (unmanned convenience stores, unmanned shelves, and self-service vending machines) One of the most mature models in span>, and coffee is a relatively mature and common category in self-service vending machines. Self-service coffee machine entrepreneurship projects have received greater attention, and self-service coffee machines represented by Lai Cup coffee and a la carte coffee bars have won Multiple rounds of financing.
However, unlike in Japan, self-service vending machines are one of its mainstream retail formats. my country’s retail channels are diversified. Self-service coffee machines are more of a supplementary retail channel in my country to meet people’s occasional instant shopping needs. The development of self-service coffee machines has been tepid so far, and there is no leading company with a large market share.
Since 2019, specialty coffee retail brands and offline cafes have been favored by capital. The boutique instant coffee brand “Three and a half” has completed 5 rounds of financing from 2018 to 2020; the convenient specialty coffee brand “TIME Cui SERE” Completed A+ round of tens of millions of financing; Yongpu Coffee completed two rounds of financing in 2020; Manner, a boutique cafe that focuses on take-out mode, received strategic investment from Capital Today and Temasek. Capital Today even became the largest shareholder.Self-participation in operations.
3. Consumer analysis
According to the statistics of the “2020 China Statistical Yearbook”, the number of people born in the 80s and 90s reached 325 million, accounting for 23.2% of the total population. These people are the main force in the workplace, have an economic foundation, and have strong spending power, and are the backbone of the society. ; The post-95 population reached 385 million, accounting for 27.5% of the total population. The post-95s generation was an Internet digital native who grew up in an affluent environment with a strong self-awareness. Most of them were handsome, impulsive consumption, daring to try new things, and consumption in the future. The main force.
49% of mobile Internet users have drunk coffee, and 77% have drunk instant coffee:
According to consumer survey data from Penguin Think Tank, 49.4% in 2019Of mobile phone netizens have used coffee. It can be seen that coffee has a high penetration rate among netizens, but the overall drinking frequency is low. Only 13% of users drink it every week, and 20.6% of users drink it only once in a few months. In terms of coffee consumption type, 76.8% of consumers have drunk instant coffee, 38.2% and 37% of consumers have drunk instant coffee and freshly ground coffee, indicating that instant coffee is still the most commonly consumed by consumers in the coffee market in my country Category.
49% of consumers are willing to pay less than RMB 10 per cup of coffee:
From the perspective of coffee consumption plan, 36% of mobile Internet users said they would buy coffee in the next year, 30% said they didn’t know, and 34% said they would definitely not buy coffee. Consumers who plan to buy coffee in the next year plan to consume an average of 8.7 cups per month. The average price that consumers are willing to pay for each cup of coffee is 14.5 yuan, and the price range of 5-10 yuan accounts for 28%, followed by The proportion of less than 5 yuan accounted for 21%, indicating that the current consumer’s purchasing power and purchase intention of the single-product coffee segment of less than 10 yuan are the most willing to buy.
39.8% of consumers plan to increase the purchase amount, and 6.5% plan to reduce the purchase amount:
39.8% of consumers who have a coffee purchase plan in the coming yearOf consumers plan to increase the purchase amount, and only 6.5% said they plan to reduce the purchase amount. It means that once users start drinking coffee, their habits are easier to maintain.
Among the consumers who plan to reduce coffee spending, more than half choose to use plain water or mineral water, traditional Chinese tea instead of coffee consumption, and only 16.1% of consumers choose to consume new tea instead of coffee, Among the plans to reduce consumption of new tea drinks in the coming year, 18.2% of consumers choose to use coffee instead of new tea drinks. It shows that the substitution effect of new-style tea on coffee is weak.
The proportion of male coffee consumers is slightly higher than that of females. 47% of consumers are 29 years old and below. The majority of coffee drinkers in my country are young consumers; In terms of income, consumers in second-tier cities account for 39%; in terms of income, 85% of consumers have monthly incomes below 8k.
According to data from online coffee consumers on Tmall, senior middle-class, cutting-edge white-collar workers and sophisticated mothers are the main consumers of coffee. The number of coffee consumers of Generation Z has the fastest growth rate, leading trends such as trendy play/art/interesting/novelty.
From the perspective of consumption time, coffee consumption is mainly concentrated in the afternoon. Compared with tea, the proportion of coffee consumption during breakfast is higher, especially for fresh coffee. From the perspective of purchase reasons, “activation and wakeup” is the main reason for people to consume coffee, and the main factor for buying tea is “quenching their thirst”, which shows the difference in the functional needs that consumers value when buying coffee and tea. Larger means that the alternatives of the two are weaker. From the user portraits of freshly made coffee and packaged coffee, high-income, young, and female users prefer freshly made drinks.
Four, the domestic coffee industry operation model and development status
The types of coffee products for end consumers are mainly divided into three types: soluble coffee, ready-to-drink coffee and freshly ground coffee. According to different product forms, each type can be divided into a number of different subdivision modes. .
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