On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales situation from January to August 2021. Data show that since reaching a small peak in February, the growth rate of investment in real estate development across the country has continued to slow down. At the same time, due to the traditional off-season of sales in August, the superimposed control policies have become stricter, and the sales volume in a single month is less than that of the same period last year. 
6 consecutive development investment growth rates Monthly narrowing
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 980.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year; The growth rate was 15.9% in August, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.7%. Among them, residential investment was 7397.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0%.
In February of this year, development investment reached a new high since March 2004 at a growth rate of 38.3%. The growth rate of development investment began to slow down in March, and development investment began in August. Investment growth continued to slow down.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, pointed out that the continued tightening of credit and the continuous decline of new construction area on a year-on-year basis played a downward driving role in development investment. The amount of development investment has fallen back to the level of the same period last year.
According to single-month data, the real estate development investment in August was 1316.5 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year, basically the same as last year. In addition, from January to August, the newly-started floor space of houses was 1355.02 million square meters, down 3.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to decline.
Pan Hao pointed out that the decline in the growth of newly started area is mainly related to the continued tightening of credit, and on the other hand, it is also related to the land transaction volume from January to August. According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, the planned construction area of land transactions from January to August this year decreased by 26% year-on-year. The decrease in land transaction area may continue to affect the growth rate of newly started area, which in turn will have a downward driving effect on development investment. Pan Hao believes that with the adjustment of the second batch of centralized land supply rules and the gradual entry of land into the market, the land transfer volume during the year is expected to maintain the momentum of restoration. 
August productHousing sales area fell, down by 15.6% year-on-year
In terms of sales, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 114193 million square meters. A year-on-year increase of 15.9%; an increase of 12.1% over the January-August period of 2019, an average increase of 5.9% over the two years. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 16.5%, the sales area of office buildings increased by 3.7%, and the sales area of commercial buildings increased by 2.1%. The sales of commercial housing was 1,19047 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.8%; an increase of 24.8% over the first eight months of 2019, an average increase of 11.7% over the two years. Among them, residential sales increased by 24.5%, office building sales increased by 3.5%, and commercial business housing sales increased by 3.3%.
According to the monthly transaction data, the sales area of commercial housing in August was 12.54 million square meters, down 15.6% year-on-year, and the sales area was similar to the same period in 2018.
According to the Shell Research Institute, the national commercial housing sales volume has maintained a historical peak for 14 consecutive months before July 2021, and the high base has led to 8 The month-on-year growth rate has declined; in addition, under the regulatory policy aimed at the “three stability”, the tightening of regulatory policies in many places has led to a recent sales correction trend. According to statistics, in August the real estate market regulation policies were issued 36 times. Since April, the frequency of regulation and control has continued to increase, and regulation has continued to increase. 
Returns from sales are funds of real estate enterprises The main source, “the impact of corporate operation difficulties on the industry still needs to be observed”
From the perspective of the funds in place by real estate companies, sales proceeds are the main source of funds in place. However, the continued upward trend in housing loan interest rates drove the downward growth in sales return, which put pressure on real estate companies’ funds in place.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the amount of funds in place for housing enterprises from January to August was 13,346.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. In terms of breakdown, domestic loans were 1691.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1%; the use of foreign capital was 5.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5%; self-raised funds were 4,077.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; deposits and advance payments were 5,099.7 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3%; personal mortgages Loans amounted to 2,149 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4%. Among them, the growth rate of domestic loansThe rate of decline continues to expand, and real estate companies’ funds in place continue to be under pressure, which is related to the management of bank loan concentration.
According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, the mainstream first home loan interest rate in August in 72 cities was 5.6%, and the second set interest rate was 5.9%, maintaining a continuous increase. The tightening of the credit environment has inhibited the growth rate of sales receipts, and at the same time, sales receipts are the main source of funds in place for real estate enterprises, which intensifies the pressure on funds for real estate enterprises.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that, as a whole, real estate credit has continued to tighten in recent months, which has gradually affected house purchases and real estate investment. From the data point of view, the rise of personal mortgage loans has slowed down significantly, and the impact of credit tightening on housing companies has become more and more obvious.
It pointed out that the real estate market has gradually subsided after experiencing the peak after the epidemic. From the perspective of market trends, the real estate market will gradually stabilize in 2021. If second-hand housing credit continues to tighten , The property market downward adjustment will accelerate.
Regarding the judgment of the market outlook, Pan Hao believes that due to the continuous pressure on the corporate financing side, stable cash flow support is required in various aspects such as debt repayment and land acquisition. Therefore, Sales collection has become the lifeline of real estate business operations. Combining with the above-mentioned market judgment of “high-level correction”, facing the traditional “golden nine silver ten” sales nodes, real estate enterprises have launched certain measures to deal with market uncertainty, ensure the achievement of annual sales tasks, stabilize the return of funds, and prepare bargaining chips for land acquisition at the end of the year. The promotional measures are routine operations. However, in the face of the delivery node before the end of the year, in order to protect the interests of early home buyers, most old projects will not adopt excessively extreme price reduction measures as a whole, and the more likely choice is to launch a promotion policy for the less powerful properties of the product. On the one hand, Clean up long-term inventory, on the other hand, also concentrate on customer drainage or reserve. Of course, there are also some real estate companies that are under greater pressure on cash flow and carry out greater promotion, but most of the operations are staged choices.
It is worth mentioning that the recent price cuts of existing properties in Hengda, and the risk of potential debt default. In this regard, the National Economic Operation in August 2021 held on the same day At the press conference, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui mentioned at the press conference that some large real estate companies have encountered some difficulties in the production and operation process, and the impact on the development of the entire industry needs to be observed. From the perspective of the operation of the real estate market, since the beginning of this year, various regions and various departments have adhered to the principle of “housing to live without speculation”, and continued to stabilize housing prices, land prices, and expectations, and the overall operation has remained stable.