[Editor’s Note]

Population is an important factor affecting economic development, which in turn affects the flow of population and even the birth rate. As the population data for 2021 is announced in various places, the news combs the main population data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in the past ten years, trying to weave a “ten-year map of China’s population” for readers’ reference.

“It’s not necessarily a bad thing for the population outflow area. If there is a limit to the total industrial economy developed by the local area, then the outflow of population will be beneficial instead. Raise the per capita level.” Lu Ming, a distinguished professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University, said in an interview with reporters.

According to the news, about half of the 27 provinces that have released population data for 2021 experienced negative growth in their resident population last year. If the provinces that have not yet released data will basically continue the previous trend in 2021, then in the 10 years from the end of 2011 to the end of 2021, there will be 6 provinces with negative growth in permanent population.

Lu Ming emphasized that as long as the pattern of economic opening remains unchanged and the process of economic modernization does not stop, the existing trend of economic concentration in some advantageous regions will continue to evolve. , the trend of population concentration in these places will definitely appear. In those areas where the population has moved out, the growth rate of economic aggregate and fiscal revenue is relatively slow, which needs to be supported by transfer payments from the central government.

He also reminded that this is a long process, and the existing household registration system and social security system have not fully met the state of free movement of the population across the country.

News: Under the background that China’s population is about to enter negative growth, will the population continue to gather in developed regions? If the population moves further to developed areas, more areas will inevitably experience a decrease in the resident population. What impact will this have on the regional economy? What kind of regional economic policies will be needed in the future?

Lu Ming: Since China’s reform and opening up, especially since the mid-1990s, China has fully implemented the economic policy of opening to the outside world. Since the international trade in today’s world is dominated by the combination of sea and inland shipping, this kind of economic openness is relatively conducive to the formation of better development conditions in coastal areas and along the Yangtze River.

In terms of trends, the economy is indeedTo the coastal urban agglomeration, especially to the central city around the agglomeration. After the modernization of the economy in the central and western and northeastern regions, the development of a large number of service industries was concentrated in central cities and provincial capitals. In the process of economic concentration, the population will flow to the places where the economy is concentrated. Otherwise, the fruits of economic development cannot be shared by those places with relatively poor geographical conditions.

In other words, it is precisely these migrants who share the fruits of modern economic growth and move from places with poor geographical conditions to places with better conditions. important way. Therefore, as long as the pattern of economic opening remains unchanged and the process of economic modernization does not stop, the trend of economic concentration in some advantageous regions will continue to evolve, and the trend of population concentration in these regions will certainly emerge.

When the population is concentrated in some areas, there must be some places where the population will flow out, mainly in the rural areas of China, so this is actually a process of urbanization. For rural areas, the industrial structure is mainly agriculture, tourism, natural resources, etc. The economic aggregates of these industries are limited, so it is not necessarily a bad thing for people to move out.

In those areas where the population has moved out, the growth rate of economic aggregate and fiscal revenue is relatively slow, which needs to be supported by the transfer payment from the central government. From the perspective of local economic development, it is necessary to pay attention to how to develop industries with relative comparative advantages, and avoid the situation that the development of industries that blindly increase GDP violates local comparative advantages and competitive advantages. Development is not good.

The central government’s fiscal transfer payment, in addition to equalizing public services, can also help the outflowing areas to develop local industries with comparative advantages. For example, in places suitable for the development of agriculture, it is necessary to improve the infrastructure and production technology related to agriculture, and in places suitable for the development of tourism, it is necessary to develop infrastructure supporting the tourism industry. In this way, the economy can be concentrated in a small number of regions, and at the same time, it will not evolve into a particularly large development gap between regions.

News: In the past ten years, Zhejiang’s resident population has surpassed Anhui and Hubei, and Jiangsu has surpassed Sichuan. Is this relatively strong growth of resident population related to the regional economic agglomeration effect?

Lu Ming: The large population growth in Zhejiang and Jiangsu is mainly due to the fact that economic development depends on geographical conditions. Yangtze River DeltaThe region is the region with the best natural conditions for economic development in the whole of China. The coastal areas themselves are better developed than the inland areas, and there are also differences within the coastal areas. The development conditions of the Yangtze River Delta region are relatively better than those of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.

This is because the Yangtze River Delta region has the golden waterway of the Yangtze River, which enables cities along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially the areas in the south of the Yangtze River, to have very good shipping conditions and transportation capacity. , and cooperate with the ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Zhoushan. Therefore, the population growth of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is actually based on the economic growth momentum brought by this unique condition. At the same time, it must be noted that within the two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, not all places have achieved population growth. Compared with southern Jiangsu, the development conditions of northern Jiangsu are not so good, and the population growth of some cities in northern Jiangsu is negative. Within Zhejiang, the closer it is to Hangzhou and Ningbo, the more positive the population growth trend is, and the farther away the growth is relatively small. So in essence, it is still the result of natural geography and economic geography.

News: There has been a significant decline in the permanent population of the three northeastern provinces in the past ten years. How do we view this population flow?

Lu Ming:The negative population growth in Northeast China is essentially the fact that since the 1990s, the whole of China has turned to export-oriented manufacturing as its comparative advantage Due to the high degree of openness of this kind of economic development, it is highly dependent on port conditions. In addition to a few ports like Dalian in the Northeast, the ports in other places will freeze, and some provinces even have no access to the sea at all. There are also no good conditions for inland shipping in the Northeast. In general, the conditions for developing an export-oriented, export-oriented economy will be inferior to regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

In addition, the starting point of China’s economy is the planned economy. The planned economy period created the glory of the Northeast’s economy. After the reform and opening up, the economic and geographical changes in the rise of the southern economy have caused Outflow of Northeast population. But it should also be noted that the process of outflow itself is accompanied by the process of urbanization. In fact, many of the outflow areas of Northeast China are rural and small county towns. The population of core large cities, such as Shenyang, Dalian, and Changchun, is growing positively.

It should also be noted that even if it is an area with negative population growth from the perspective of urban jurisdiction, the population of its central urban area is also growing, such as Harbin. Therefore, the population outflow from the Northeast is not everywhere, but “concentrated shrinkage”, that is to say, it shrinks in general, but it is directed to a few large cities and central cities.This is actually in line with the law of economic development.

From the perspective of the Northeast region and some population outflow areas, everyone is generally worried that after the economic growth slows down, in terms of finance or taxation, infrastructure, public services, etc. There may be insufficient resources, and these will have to rely on fiscal transfers to ease the pressure. However, it is not necessarily a bad thing for the population outflow areas. If there is a limit to the total amount of industrial economic development in the local area, then the outflow of population will help to improve the per capita level.

However, it must be admitted that this is a long process, and the existing household registration system and social security system have not yet fully met the state of free movement of the population across the country. From the perspective of the structure of population flow, a large number of the outflows from the Northeast region are young people, and the remaining ones are more elderly people, which will bring great pressure on the elderly in this region, which can only be solved through financial transfer payments.

In addition, there is the issue of national defense and security. Some areas where the population flows out, possibly border cities, should retain a certain population to ensure national defense security. Issues like national defense and security require special treatment. The state of population outflow can be alleviated through the support of the state to improve the local quality of life, the level of public service provision, etc. However, this type of city does not account for a high proportion in China, which is a special case.

News: Anhui’s resident population dropped by 1.63 million from the end of 2005 to the end of 2010, and has rebounded by about 1.4 million in the last 10 years. Is there some economic factor at play?

Lu Ming: The geographical location of Anhui, generally speaking, belongs to the places where the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration can radiate, but it is also in the The periphery of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Anhui’s population growth is mainly in the Yangtze River metropolitan area along the Yangtze River. Northern Anhui and Southern Anhui are relatively unsuitable for developing large-scale manufacturing, and there is also a negative population growth. Therefore, the inflow and outflow of population has a significant relationship with geographical conditions. Each province has a core area of ​​population inflow, usually with better geographical conditions, such as coastal and riverside, or provincial capital cities, large cities and surrounding cities, such as Hefei in Anhui, whose population is growing positively. If it is far away from the coast, far away from the river, and it is not the core city and its surrounding areas, it is basically a negative population growth. The same is true of Guangdong. The core cities in the Pearl River Delta region have positive population growth, but there are also negative population growth in the fringe areas of northern, western and eastern Guangdong.

News: What do you think of the “robbing people” in some places?

Lu Ming:In recent years, there have been cases of “robbing people” in some areas. Personally, I believe that the success of “robbing people” is still the result of whether a place’s economic development has growth momentum. If a place has the possibility of industrial agglomeration, then the population can grow, but if a place lacks conditions for industrial agglomeration, then the population is negative growth. Population is mobile. Given the total population of a country, as long as there are places where the population flows in, there must be places where the population flows out.

From the perspective of the national pattern, the population is concentrated in coastal areas, riverside areas (mainly along the Yangtze River), and central cities; in some small and medium-sized cities, even In areas with negative population growth, the population is more concentrated in the central urban area. This trend can be seen from the census data. From a case-by-case perspective, in some places, even in traditional rural areas or small county towns, if you really find industries that are suitable for your own development and develop well, then there can be local population agglomeration, or positive growth. Individual cases and general laws can coexist completely.

In cities such as Chengdu, Xi’an, etc., there is a situation of “robbing people”, and it is necessary to consider whether it is consistent with the opportunity of economic development. In addition, what kind of means to “rob people” is also very important, whether to use public services to favor those who “want to rob”, or to make more efforts in the equalization of public services, such as canceling the traditional existing influence on education level discrimination? I personally think that from the perspective of the development of the market economy, we should pay more attention to the latter and the equalization of public services.

From the perspective of attracting the population, in terms of the reform of the points system, the state has also clearly put forward the direction of the reform. As the main standard, and gradually reduce or even cancel the discriminatory effect of the education level itself on the points settlement. Some of the current “robbing people” policies may instead strengthen the discrimination against this part of the migrant population who are not highly educated. This should be prevented.

Currently, it has transformed from the traditional mode of economic growth to the more and more people yearn for the comprehensive quality of life in a city. Therefore, if you really want to “grab people”, it is better to improve the air quality, public service level, governance level, efficiency of work and other aspects of a place. This is the real “grab people”, using the quality of life to “grab people”, Instead of giving subsidies or giving priority to settlement opportunities for certain groups of people, as has happened in previous years. otherwise, may actually increase discrimination.