Article from WeChat public account:Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch), author: Guotai Junan strategy team, cover: vision China
On October 18, the national total retail sales of social consumer goods released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the zero growth rate of the society in September was 7.8%, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month.
This figure is slightly higher than the market’s forecast of 7.7%, mainly because the car sales are picking up slightly more than expected.
According to this, according to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the car production and sales data in September this year has significantly rebounded compared with August, and the year-on-year decline has also narrowed compared with last month.
Although the absolute sales continued to decline, a little improvement also brought some warmth to the auto sector that has been depressed for 15 months.
Winter in the Chinese auto market, is it finally over? Looking forward to the fourth quarter and 2020, the market still holds strong differences on the auto sector, and the Guotai Junan strategy team analyzed that there are two core arguments:
1. Fundamentals: There is no disagreement at the bottom of the car sales data, but what is the slope of the repair?
2. Policy: After experiencing high expectations in the previous period, can there be more than expected policy launches? How much is the possibility that a limited-limit purchase will be fully liberalized?
In the in-depth report “Cars: Opportunities in Disagreement” published in the previous issue, the strategy team reiterated one point on the basis of answering these two questions – winter is coming, will spring be far behind?
01 Cancel car purchase, policy warmer exceeds expectations