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3. What is the status of African swine fever? Will the impact on meat prices continue?
It is generally believed that the rise in meat prices is inextricably linked to the spread of African swine fever in the country. On September 18, Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the recent rise in pork prices was “affected by factors such as the African swine fever epidemic” [xvii]; Caixin believed that rising pig prices and pork shortages were “sequelae of African swine fever” [xviii].
On August 1, 2018, Shenyang, Liaoning, was diagnosed with the first African swine fever epidemic in China. Subsequently, the epidemic spread across the provinces from north to south and east to west. As of July this year, China has a total of 32 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) African swine fever has occurred, and 143 African swine fever cases have occurred. More than 1.16 million pigs [xix]. However, public opinion believes that the actual epidemic situation is even more serious. According to information released by the Ministry of Agriculture in August this year, the number of live pigs on the market decreased by 38.7% compared with the same period of last year [xx]. Nearly 100 million live pigs.
Nuclear Record recorded the cases of African swine fever since August last year, and released all the cases of African swine fever that were released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs since last year. The spread of plague (pictures 1 and 2 respectively). Among them, the darker the administrative district, the more the number of outbreak cases; the serial number on the map represents the place and time of the outbreak.
As can be seen from Figure 1, since the first outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018, 87 cases of African swine fever have been reported in mainland China by the end of 2018, and a total of 23 provincial-level administrative regions have reported African swine fever. . Among them, the province with the most outbreak cases is the first outbreak in Liaoning Province, with a total of 10 outbreak cases; followed by Anhui and Hunan provinces, with 8 and 7 African swine fever cases respectively. From Figure 1, it can be further seen that most of the high-incidence areas of the epidemic are concentrated in the northeast and central provinces with the largest outbreaks of pig breeding, and the western and Hainan provinces rarely experienced epidemics in 2018.
Figure 1
However, swine fever has not been effectively controlled because of the end of 2018, but has spread throughout the country. This situation continued until the beginning of 2019. The outbreak of Hainan in April marked the emergence of African swine fever in all provinces in mainland China. It is also from that time that the number of swine fever cases nationwide has begun to show a downward trend. As can be seen from Figure 2, as of September 2019, a total of 44 swine fever cases have been reported in mainland China, the number is less than half of the number reported in August-December 2018; swine fever outbreaks in northeast and southeast coastal provinces The number has decreased significantly, with new cases mostly occurring in Northwest, Southwest, and Hainan Provinces, and most of the time concentrated in the first half of 2019. Guangxi and Hainan have the most cases, with 6 cases each; Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong and other nine provinces and autonomous regions did not report any new Africa from January to September 2019. Swine fever case.
Figure Two
Agricultural experts told Xinhua News Agency that [xxi], April to July is the period of high epidemic situation, and the epidemic situation will enter a relatively stable period after September. However, it will take some time to fully restore normal pork supply and prices. “I hope the society and the people will be able to be patient.”
References:
[i] http://bgt.mofcom.gov.cn/article / c / d / 201909 / 20190902900543.shtml
[ii] http://www.mrm.com.cn/jdddinfo.aspx?NewsId=17298&CateId=50
[iii] http://jgjc.ndrc.gov.cn/list.aspx?clmId=695
[iv] http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2019-09/13/content_5429713.htm
[v] http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2019-05/16/content_5392357.htm
[vi] http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2019-08/30/content_5425959.htm
[vii] http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2019-08/22/content_5423375.htm
[viii] http://www.moa.gov.cn/govpublic/xmsyj/201909/t20190929_6329363.htm
[ix] http://www.zj.gov.cn/art/2019/7/15/art_1545738_37497.html
[x] http://dara.gd.gov.cn/tzgg2272/content/post_2571885.html <