Scarcity vs Scale Up
Editor’s note: This article comes from WeChat public account “ Deep sound “(ID: deep-echo), author Ya Lan.
SNH48 investors, Mi Wei media investors, the most understanding of the two-dimensional investors, the investors who understand the trends of the young-these labels belong to Chen Yuetian.
He used to be the head of the content area of the Innovation Workshop, leading projects such as SNH48, Mi Wei Media, Paint Dream Culture, Fan Animation, and Mo Ming Qi Miao. In 2015, Chenhai Capital was established, and successively invested in projects such as Tingdong Pictures, Mobi Magic, Taobao Bar, Renren Video, Time Haiying, Weinian Technology, China Film Annual, Caviar Culture and other projects.
Feasibility, sustainability, and scalability are Chen Yuetian ’s investment methodologies in the field of content and entertainment. At the current wave of technology, the “engineer man” who graduated from Fudan ’s software engineering major is using his professional background and strict logic Analyze and explore all-round new content and new consumption.
As a trendy excavator, Chen Yuetian will bring his 2020 opportunity insights at the “Shenxiang Annual Opportunity Summit”, with Yang Renwen, Director of Founder Securities Research Institute / Chief Analyst of Media and Internet, CMO Xiao, together with CHAO founder / CEO Huang Diandian, shared their systematic thinking on content, consumption and the combination of the two.
Before the summit, “Shen Xiang” had an in-depth interview with Chen Yuetian, discussing the investment in the winter period, cloud game opportunities, content and technology dance, video website export, investment in new trends, narrow How to break the circle, the investment logic of content and consumption, and other seven topics.
Chen Yuetian believes that at the eve of large-scale infrastructure innovation, the combination of 5G, AI and other technologies with the media industry is where new opportunities lie. In fact, the return on capital is now significantly higher in technology than in labor. The direct combination of capital and technology has made the importance of “people” constantly lower.
“This is the biggest trend. Everyone must realize that people are less and less important.”
Refinement of this mega trend has made cloud gaming a visible point of opportunity.
In terms of trend culture, Chen YuetianIt is believed that the narrow tide does not necessarily have to “break the circle”. The circle layer can achieve high adhesion and strong monetization, and it can be occupied for a long time. The investment of the circle can not be based on its traffic, but ultimately its income and realization. The main point of investment is whether the large market it is backing is large or small, and how scarce it is.
As for the combination of content and consumption, Chen Yuetian said that both investment content and investment consumption seem to be on the investment and supply side, but in reality they are very different. Obviously, physical commodities can see continuous large-scale production capacity, but the content is largely based on scarcity.
For more insights on content, consumption, trends, and cloud games, please welcome to the “Shenxiang Annual Opportunity Summit”. Here, we bet on China to further explore the incremental opportunities of the stock market and the reliable entry of the incremental market; here, we look at the world, attack the jade with the stones of other mountains, and attack the city with the advantages of China Mobile Internet and technology . You and I can’t be absent on such a wonderful business stage.
Meet the 2020 top catchers | Sounding the Annual Opportunity Summit
The following is a record of Chen Yuetian’s conversation after Deep Sound:
So-called winter investment
Shenxiang: A report on “New Normal, New Market, and New Crowd” will be released at the summit of Shenxiang. In fact, the words “cold winter” appear frequently in the capital circle in 2018 and 2019. It seems to be a “new normal”. How do you feel about this?
Chen Yuetian: It’s really not surprising that the winter is now up to now. I remember that it was particularly hot in 2010 and 2011. A large number of companies listed on the US stock market, and many people invested in the industry. As a result, I entered the industry in July 2011, and the winter began as soon as I entered the industry. At that time, there were some problems at home and abroad. The secondary market could not go up, the primary market would not invest, and there were problems in raising funds.
So I actually went through a year and a half of winter just when I started. The entire market slowly turned around in April 2013. A large number of listed companies before ChinaJoy acquired game companies, and only then slowed down.
Deep sound: When will the so-called cold winter come over?
Chen Yuetian: At least wait until after the Spring Festival. However, it still depends on the policy. The rear opening is better, and the gate is still a bit small. If the registration system is opened next year, the primary market capital may be better. In the secondary market, media stocks are slowly rising, and they were really too much down before.
Deep sound: In this “winter”, where is the difficulty in finding the project?
Chen Yuetian: It is not difficult to find a project. There are always so many entrepreneurs in China. The difficulty is that you continue to find projects, find new industries, new investment opportunities, and unique investment opportunities of your own.
After you find a project, you have to judge that maybe the money you invested in this company is the first money. Will someone in this market continue to give money? The reason why the VC industry exists is because some companies will lose money in the early stage, and then he takes equity financing to expand market share, generate monopoly, and become bigger and stronger. This is our VC investment opportunity.
At the same time, in this environment, the difficulty is to try to invest in the top companies to ensure that they can invest.
We need to do layout in the winter. In the end, we invested more in 2019 than in 2018.
An opportunity for cloud gaming
Shen Xiang: What are the system opportunities in 2020 when starting a business in the content field?
Chen Yuetian: The opportunity at this stage is to combine technology with media.
There are several technologies, 5G, AI, VR / AR, these technologies are moving forward. And you see the big logic of the media industry is a “constant change.” The “unchanged” is that everyone should consume content, just like eating and drinking, so everyone needs spiritual food. Therefore, people’s pursuit of stories and those emotions triggered by content stories are long-standing. It’s just that with the development of technology, technology spawns various media. This is the “change” part. How can technology-driven new media complete these stories well.
We recently cast a cloud game. Cloud gaming is a combination of 5G and the gaming industry. We also recently watched virtual idols, that is, the combination of AI and 3G and 4G technologies.
Deep sound: Recently, I have also seen a lot about the layout of cloud games. Where will the future competition point for cloud games be?
Chen Yuetian: The first is a technical solution, your cost. The solutions are various now ——Some are a single server streaming over the cloud, because it is a video streaming service itself; some is a virtual PC powered by a virtual machine. A part of the virtual PC is taken out for you to play games, but a part of the computing power is idle because it runs that OS (operating system).
The company we invested in is fully virtualized and will directly give you a game container. After the virtualization is done, the container will do streaming for you, so it does not have the redundant OS computing part. It The cost is very, very low.
The next step is to run the infrastructure and deploy a large number of CDNs (content distribution networks). Either find good partners or you can do it yourself. Therefore, this involves the front-end input of the hardware. It has to buy servers, it has to get computer rooms, and it has to distribute CDNs across the country.
Deep sound: VR vents were fleeting. Is it possible for cloud games to repeat this mistake?
Chen Yuetian: So we can’t just look at the supply of technology, but also the demand, see if this market is formed, and see if there is any product on the C-end that can run.
The core reason for us to watch cloud games is not just technology and product ready, but more importantly, there are some C-side platforms with daily users growing, and these users are also very willing to pay. The C-side market is growing very fast, and foreign manufacturers and Tencent are also doing it.
Dance with technology
Deep response: In the context of technological transition, how do pure content producers respond?
Chen Yuetian: In fact, you will find that the content on the video website is better or a group of people who were doing TV at the time; now it is doing well in the new media and can be done in the era of newspapers and magazines. The media environment is switched, and the producers are still the original ones.
But there is one thing that has not been completed, that is, the industrialized system of systematization, sustainability, and large-scale production that I talked about before, I still haven’t seen it.
Deep response: You mentioned two systemic opportunities before, one is large-scale infrastructure update, and the other is user scenario migration. At what stage of opportunity are you now?
Chen Yuetian: The eve of large-scale infrastructure innovation. Infrastructure is the underlying media technology. Media technology will lead to new media and new platforms. This thing requires technical preparation. 5G, AI and other technologies are constantly developing.
Deep sound: Will 5G really have such a big impact on the entertainment industry?
Chen Yuetian: Yes. Not only cloud games, such as VR and AR holography, the transmission of relatively large amounts of video information is based on such a basisIt can only be done in the infrastructure. In the 4G environment, you often have stutters, the scale of calculation has not yet reached, and the efficiency has not yet reached. There is no way to do it.
Deep-sounding: Will the technical ability become the necessary knowledge structure for content people in industries where the content is “people”?
Chen Yuetian: When we look at the entertainment industry alone, we will find it very special, but many objective laws may emerge from the entertainment industry as well. Other industries also need technology.
The bottom layer of economic development is that technology is constantly iterating, and the curve of technology has been going up, becoming steeper and more efficient. Another thing is that technology is constantly evolving, and the need for people is becoming less and less.
Some people have calculated the rate of return on capital. The rate of return on capital is now significantly higher in technology than in labor.
In such a big environment, the importance of “people” is declining. And the direct combination of capital and technology can make money on its own machine. This is the biggest trend. Everyone must realize that people are less and less important.
Exit of video website
Shen Xiang: What are the changes in the field of film and television content entrepreneurship?
Chen Yuetian: In the first half of 2019, purchases at the TV drama level were basically cut, and the platform was dragging money, and a large number of small companies could not afford it. And now people in the film and television industry talk about censorship all day and night, very sensitive. In 2019, small film and television companies died a lot, and large film and television companies are also supporting.
I think this is the case, it’s not particularly difficult for everyone. The end result is actually leaning on the strong. The small ones die, as long as the strong people can carry it, they will eat up the rest of the market share.
Deep sound: Where is the exit of the video website?
Chen Yuetian: We are doing analysis recently. In fact, there are only two modes, one is the traffic advertising mode, and the other is the membership payment mode.
The advertising mode of traffic depends on the amount of traffic and whether the traffic has increased. Therefore, at this stage, video platforms are actually more difficult to ensure that daily users and viewing time continue to rise.
Everyone hopes that members will receive the money. Members do rise, but if you match costs with such income, you must lose money. If there is no new model, it must be a loss.
Deep sound: What new model do you think?
Chen Yuetian: The new model is really a combination of IP and other industries, either with consumption or real estate. In the end, it basically followed the Disney model.
Deep-sounding: If a video site does something like Disney, it is equivalent to merging channels and content production.
Chen Yuetian: It depends on whether its content production system is internal to the company or borrowed from external ecology. But the back-end monetization must be done by yourself and cannot be given to others. The premise of this thing is that he must have a relatively strong IP system. At present, the IP system has not been integrated, and there is no IP system similar to Marvel Universe.
Investors continue to set foot in the new trend
Shen Xiang: Chen Hai is now positioned to invest in the consumption and culture of people aged 15-25. How can you keep up with the rhythm of young people?
Chen Yuetian: First, I try to understand myself. Second, the company’s new young students. Post-95 students usually have their own hobbies,
Deep sound: Hobby is a hobby. In business words and business, how do you judge that his hobby is a trend worthy of in-depth research or investment value? In addition, when we reported, we clearly felt that the cutting-edge trend of hard technology companies is predictable. If we overcome the difficulties, technology will enter the next wave. However, the trend culture is changing too fast and uncertain, and many trends cannot be precipitated. How do you find certainty in a trend?
Chen Yuetian: First, you continue to follow the team, follow the data, the data is rising, you don’t stop talking nonsense. Investors cannot always be based on their current perceptions, which are narrow-minded. So investors need to look at something objective. If you do n’t understand, do n’t force it. We have to set foot on the waves. The entrepreneur can stare at an opportunity, and he may have this opportunity in his life. But we investors have to set foot on the waves, and at that time we must do something to follow.
The other thing is to believe in young people. Most young entrepreneurs now are marginalized. They are not vested in the previous wave of dividends. The “non- vested interest” actually has a willingness to change his own life, and that willingness is a very important thing for entrepreneurial success. You have to trust these people, listen to him tell his story, why do this, listen to him to describe this need, and also do research.
Do you want to break the circle?
Deep sound: Most of the tide play is narrow in the beginning. The narrow things may be very sticky, but how does it scale and break through its ceiling step by step?
Chen Yuetian: I have summarized the methodology before, how to do it if we want to expand the capacity. There is a core, a little traffic inflow, you do some community operations, and make its core more extensive and larger, but it must be stronger, can not continue to inject traffic.
But recently I think that the circle layer can be the circle layer, and it doesn’t have to be enlarged. You can do good adhesion and monetization based on this circle, and you can occupy this circle for a long time.
Shenxiang: How does the valuation of such a project grow?
Chen Yuetian: You can’t look at its traffic, but ultimately it depends on its income and monetization.
The pit to be aware of is that the user has a need for this kind of thing at a particular age, and as the life status of a person changes, he may slowly leave the community. This habit was once in a period of time, but now it is gone. Therefore, the narrow community will face another problem. As everyone’s living conditions change, users are actually losing. Unless this thing continues to look quite trendy, there will be new users coming in constantly, so that the amount of lost users can be resisted, and the community can slowly flourish.
The investment point is-whether the large market it is backing is large or small, and how scarce it is.
Investment logic difference between content and consumption
Shen Xiang: What is the difference between investing in consumption and investing in content?
Chen Yuetian: There is a big difference. It turns out that everyone thinks that the investment content and consumption are very similar, it seems that they are all investing in the supply side. Here is the content provider, and there is the product provider.
There is actually a service provider. But services are obviously bigger and more decentralized. The threshold for the provision of physical products is actually lower than the provision of content products, because the capacity of the factory can be shared.
All the goods you see, as long as you can see them, they can be copied in China. It is hard to say that the supply chain is monopolized.
Why Huawei ’s mobile phones are doing so well now, and they ’re not much different from Apple ’s experience, because Apple ’s supply chain developed well in that year, and it was developed in China. Now that Apple, as an American company, does not have exclusive control over some raw materials and devices, in fact, the capacity of its factories is shared by other mobile phone manufacturers.
The physical goods are not scarce on the supply side and the production side, but the content is scarce. On the other hand, of course, the content market is small.
Therefore, it is clear that physical commodities can see continuous scale of production capacity, but the content is largely based on scarcity.
Shen Xiang: What are the system opportunities in 2020 when starting a business in the content field?
Chen Yuetian: The opportunity at this stage is to combine technology with media.
There are several technologies, 5G, AI, VR / AR, these technologies are moving forward. And you see the big logic of the media industry is a “constant change.” The “unchanged” is that everyone should consume content, just like eating and drinking, so everyone needs spiritual food. Therefore, people’s pursuit of stories and those emotions triggered by content stories are long-standing. It’s just that with the development of technology, technology spawns various media. This is the “change” part. How can technology-driven new media complete these stories well.
We recently cast a cloud game. Cloud gaming is a combination of 5G and the gaming industry. We also recently watched virtual idols, that is, the combination of AI and 3G and 4G technologies.
Deep sound: Recently, I have also seen a lot about the layout of cloud games. Where will the future competition point for cloud games be?
Chen Yuetian: The first is a technical solution, your cost. The solutions are various now ——Some are a single server streaming over the cloud, because it is a video streaming service itself; some is a virtual PC powered by a virtual machine. A part of the virtual PC is taken out for you to play games, but a part of the computing power is idle because it runs that OS (operating system).
The company we invested in is fully virtualized and will directly give you a game container. After the virtualization is done, the container will do streaming for you, so it does not have the redundant OS computing part. It The cost is very, very low.
The next step is to run the infrastructure and deploy a large number of CDNs (content distribution networks). Either find good partners or you can do it yourself. Therefore, this involves the front-end input of the hardware. It has to buy servers, it has to get computer rooms, and it has to distribute CDNs across the country.
Deep sound: VR vents were fleeting. Is it possible for cloud games to repeat this mistake?
Chen Yuetian: So we can’t just look at the supply of technology, but also the demand, see if this market is formed, and see if there is any product on the C-end that can run.
The core reason for us to watch cloud games is not just technology and product ready, but more importantly, there are some C-side platforms with daily users growing, and these users are also very willing to pay. The C-side market is growing very fast, and foreign manufacturers and Tencent are also doing it.
Dance with technology
Deep response: In the context of technological transition, how do pure content producers respond?
Chen Yuetian: In fact, you will find that the content on the video website is better or a group of people who were doing TV at the time; now it is doing well in the new media and can be done in the era of newspapers and magazines. The media environment is switched, and the producers are still the original ones.
But there is one thing that has not been completed, that is, the industrialized system of systematization, sustainability, and large-scale production that I talked about before, I still haven’t seen it.
Deep response: You mentioned two systemic opportunities before, one is large-scale infrastructure update, and the other is user scenario migration. At what stage of opportunity are you now?
Chen Yuetian: The eve of large-scale infrastructure innovation. Infrastructure is the underlying media technology. Media technology will lead to new media and new platforms. This thing requires technical preparation. 5G, AI and other technologies are constantly developing.
Deep sound: Will 5G really have such a big impact on the entertainment industry?
Chen Yuetian: Yes. Not only cloud games, such as VR and AR holography, the transmission of relatively large amounts of video information is based on such a basisIt can only be done in the infrastructure. In the 4G environment, you often have stutters, the scale of calculation has not yet reached, and the efficiency has not yet reached. There is no way to do it.
Deep-sounding: Will the technical ability become the necessary knowledge structure for content people in industries where the content is “people”?
Chen Yuetian: When we look at the entertainment industry alone, we will find it very special, but many objective laws may emerge from the entertainment industry as well. Other industries also need technology.
The bottom layer of economic development is that technology is constantly iterating, and the curve of technology has been going up, becoming steeper and more efficient. Another thing is that technology is constantly evolving, and the need for people is becoming less and less.
Some people have calculated the rate of return on capital. The rate of return on capital is now significantly higher in technology than in labor.
In such a big environment, the importance of “people” is declining. And the direct combination of capital and technology can make money on its own machine. This is the biggest trend. Everyone must realize that people are less and less important.
Exit of video website
Shen Xiang: What are the changes in the field of film and television content entrepreneurship?
Chen Yuetian: In the first half of 2019, purchases at the TV drama level were basically cut, and the platform was dragging money, and a large number of small companies could not afford it. And now people in the film and television industry talk about censorship all day and night, very sensitive. In 2019, small film and television companies died a lot, and large film and television companies are also supporting.
I think this is the case, it’s not particularly difficult for everyone. The end result is actually leaning on the strong. The small ones die, as long as the strong people can carry it, they will eat up the rest of the market share.
Deep sound: Where is the exit of the video website?
Chen Yuetian: We are doing analysis recently. In fact, there are only two modes, one is the traffic advertising mode, and the other is the membership payment mode.
The advertising mode of traffic depends on the amount of traffic and whether the traffic has increased. Therefore, at this stage, video platforms are actually more difficult to ensure that daily users and viewing time continue to rise.
Everyone hopes that members will receive the money. Members do rise, but if you match costs with such income, you must lose money. If there is no new model, it must be a loss.
Deep sound: What new model do you think?
Chen Yuetian: The new model is really a combination of IP and other industries, either with consumption or real estate. In the end, it basically followed the Disney model.
Deep-sounding: If a video site does something like Disney, it is equivalent to merging channels and content production.
Chen Yuetian: It depends on whether its content production system is internal to the company or borrowed from external ecology. But the back-end monetization must be done by yourself and cannot be given to others. The premise of this thing is that he must have a relatively strong IP system. At present, the IP system has not been integrated, and there is no IP system similar to Marvel Universe.
Investors continue to set foot in the new trend
Shen Xiang: Chen Hai is now positioned to invest in the consumption and culture of people aged 15-25. How can you keep up with the rhythm of young people?
Chen Yuetian: First, I try to understand myself. Second, the company’s new young students. Post-95 students usually have their own hobbies,
Deep sound: Hobby is a hobby. In business words and business, how do you judge that his hobby is a trend worthy of in-depth research or investment value? In addition, when we reported, we clearly felt that the cutting-edge trend of hard technology companies is predictable. If we overcome the difficulties, technology will enter the next wave. However, the trend culture is changing too fast and uncertain, and many trends cannot be precipitated. How do you find certainty in a trend?
Chen Yuetian: First, you continue to follow the team, follow the data, the data is rising, you don’t stop talking nonsense. Investors cannot always be based on their current perceptions, which are narrow-minded. So investors need to look at something objective. If you do n’t understand, do n’t force it. We have to set foot on the waves. The entrepreneur can stare at an opportunity, and he may have this opportunity in his life. But we investors have to set foot on the waves, and at that time we must do something to follow.
The other thing is to believe in young people. Most young entrepreneurs now are marginalized. They are not vested in the previous wave of dividends. The “non- vested interest” actually has a willingness to change his own life, and that willingness is a very important thing for entrepreneurial success. You have to trust these people, listen to him tell his story, why do this, listen to him to describe this need, and also do research.
Do you want to break the circle?
Deep sound: Most of the tide play is narrow in the beginning. The narrow things may be very sticky, but how does it scale and break through its ceiling step by step?
Chen Yuetian: I have summarized the methodology before, how to do it if we want to expand the capacity. There is a core, a little traffic inflow, you do some community operations, and make its core more extensive and larger, but it must be stronger, can not continue to inject traffic.
But recently I think that the circle layer can be the circle layer, and it doesn’t have to be enlarged. You can do good adhesion and monetization based on this circle, and you can occupy this circle for a long time.
Shenxiang: How does the valuation of such a project grow?
Chen Yuetian: You can’t look at its traffic, but ultimately it depends on its income and monetization.
The pit to be aware of is that the user has a need for this kind of thing at a particular age, and as the life status of a person changes, he may slowly leave the community. This habit was once in a period of time, but now it is gone. Therefore, the narrow community will face another problem. As everyone’s living conditions change, users are actually losing. Unless this thing continues to look quite trendy, there will be new users coming in constantly, so that the amount of lost users can be resisted, and the community can slowly flourish.
The investment point is-whether the large market it is backing is large or small, and how scarce it is.
Investment logic difference between content and consumption
Shen Xiang: What is the difference between investing in consumption and investing in content?
Chen Yuetian: There is a big difference. It turns out that everyone thinks that the investment content and consumption are very similar, it seems that they are all investing in the supply side. Here is the content provider, and there is the product provider.
There is actually a service provider. But services are obviously bigger and more decentralized. The threshold for the provision of physical products is actually lower than the provision of content products, because the capacity of the factory can be shared.
All the goods you see, as long as you can see them, they can be copied in China. It is hard to say that the supply chain is monopolized.
Why Huawei ’s mobile phones are doing so well now, and they ’re not much different from Apple ’s experience, because Apple ’s supply chain developed well in that year, and it was developed in China. Now that Apple, as an American company, does not have exclusive control over some raw materials and devices, in fact, the capacity of its factories is shared by other mobile phone manufacturers.
The physical goods are not scarce on the supply side and the production side, but the content is scarce. On the other hand, of course, the content market is small.
Therefore, it is clear that physical commodities can see continuous scale of production capacity, but the content is largely based on scarcity.
Shen Xiang: What are the changes in the field of film and television content entrepreneurship?
Chen Yuetian: In the first half of 2019, purchases at the TV drama level were basically cut, and the platform was dragging money, and a large number of small companies could not afford it. And now people in the film and television industry talk about censorship all day and night, very sensitive. In 2019, small film and television companies died a lot, and large film and television companies are also supporting.
I think this is the case, it’s not particularly difficult for everyone. The end result is actually leaning on the strong. The small ones die, as long as the strong people can carry it, they will eat up the rest of the market share.
Deep sound: Where is the exit of the video website?
Chen Yuetian: We are doing analysis recently. In fact, there are only two modes, one is the traffic advertising mode, and the other is the membership payment mode.
The advertising mode of traffic depends on the amount of traffic and whether the traffic has increased. Therefore, at this stage, video platforms are actually more difficult to ensure that daily users and viewing time continue to rise.
Everyone hopes that members will receive the money. Members do rise, but if you match costs with such income, you must lose money. If there is no new model, it must be a loss.
Deep sound: What new model do you think?
Chen Yuetian: The new model is really a combination of IP and other industries, either with consumption or real estate. In the end, it basically followed the Disney model.
Deep-sounding: If a video site does something like Disney, it is equivalent to merging channels and content production.
Chen Yuetian: It depends on whether its content production system is internal to the company or borrowed from external ecology. But the back-end monetization must be done by yourself and cannot be given to others. The premise of this thing is that he must have a relatively strong IP system. At present, the IP system has not been integrated, and there is no IP system similar to Marvel Universe.
Investors continue to set foot in the new trend
Shen Xiang: Chen Hai is now positioned to invest in the consumption and culture of people aged 15-25. How can you keep up with the rhythm of young people?
Chen Yuetian: First, I try to understand myself. Second, the company’s new young students. Post-95 students usually have their own hobbies,
Deep sound: Hobby is a hobby. In business words and business, how do you judge that his hobby is a trend worthy of in-depth research or investment value? In addition, when we reported, we clearly felt that the cutting-edge trend of hard technology companies is predictable. If we overcome the difficulties, technology will enter the next wave. However, the trend culture is changing too fast and uncertain, and many trends cannot be precipitated. How do you find certainty in a trend?
Chen Yuetian: First, you continue to follow the team, follow the data, the data is rising, you don’t stop talking nonsense. Investors cannot always be based on their current perceptions, which are narrow-minded. So investors need to look at something objective. If you do n’t understand, do n’t force it. We have to set foot on the waves. The entrepreneur can stare at an opportunity, and he may have this opportunity in his life. But we investors have to set foot on the waves, and at that time we must do something to follow.
The other thing is to believe in young people. Most young entrepreneurs now are marginalized. They are not vested in the previous wave of dividends. The “non- vested interest” actually has a willingness to change his own life, and that willingness is a very important thing for entrepreneurial success. You have to trust these people, listen to him tell his story, why do this, listen to him to describe this need, and also do research.
Do you want to break the circle?
Deep sound: Most of the tide play is narrow in the beginning. The narrow things may be very sticky, but how does it scale and break through its ceiling step by step?
Chen Yuetian: I have summarized the methodology before, how to do it if we want to expand the capacity. There is a core, a little traffic inflow, you do some community operations, and make its core more extensive and larger, but it must be stronger, can not continue to inject traffic.
But recently I think that the circle layer can be the circle layer, and it doesn’t have to be enlarged. You can do good adhesion and monetization based on this circle, and you can occupy this circle for a long time.
Shenxiang: How does the valuation of such a project grow?
Chen Yuetian: You can’t look at its traffic, but ultimately it depends on its income and monetization.
The pit to be aware of is that the user has a need for this kind of thing at a particular age, and as the life status of a person changes, he may slowly leave the community. This habit was once in a period of time, but now it is gone. Therefore, the narrow community will face another problem. As everyone’s living conditions change, users are actually losing. Unless this thing continues to look quite trendy, there will be new users coming in constantly, so that the amount of lost users can be resisted, and the community can slowly flourish.
The investment point is-whether the large market it is backing is large or small, and how scarce it is.
Investment logic difference between content and consumption
Shen Xiang: What is the difference between investing in consumption and investing in content?
Chen Yuetian: There is a big difference. It turns out that everyone thinks that the investment content and consumption are very similar, it seems that they are all investing in the supply side. Here is the content provider, and there is the product provider.
There is actually a service provider. But services are obviously bigger and more decentralized. The threshold for the provision of physical products is actually lower than the provision of content products, because the capacity of the factory can be shared.
All the goods you see, as long as you can see them, they can be copied in China. It is hard to say that the supply chain is monopolized.
Why Huawei ’s mobile phones are doing so well now, and they ’re not much different from Apple ’s experience, because Apple ’s supply chain developed well in that year, and it was developed in China. Now that Apple, as an American company, does not have exclusive control over some raw materials and devices, in fact, the capacity of its factories is shared by other mobile phone manufacturers.
The physical goods are not scarce on the supply side and the production side, but the content is scarce. On the other hand, of course, the content market is small.
Therefore, it is clear that physical commodities can see continuous scale of production capacity, but the content is largely based on scarcity.
Deep sound: Most of the tide play is narrow in the beginning. The narrow things may be very sticky, but how does it scale and break through its ceiling step by step?
Chen Yuetian: I have summarized the methodology before, how to do it if we want to expand the capacity. There is a core, a little traffic inflow, you do some community operations, and make its core more extensive and larger, but it must be stronger, can not continue to inject traffic.
But recently I think that the circle layer can be the circle layer, and it doesn’t have to be enlarged. You can do good adhesion and monetization based on this circle, and you can occupy this circle for a long time.
Shenxiang: How does the valuation of such a project grow?
Chen Yuetian: You can’t look at its traffic, but ultimately it depends on its income and monetization.
The pit to be aware of is that the user has a need for this kind of thing at a particular age, and as the life status of a person changes, he may slowly leave the community. This habit was once in a period of time, but now it is gone. Therefore, the narrow community will face another problem. As everyone’s living conditions change, users are actually losing. Unless this thing continues to look quite trendy, there will be new users coming in constantly, so that the amount of lost users can be resisted, and the community can slowly flourish.
The investment point is-whether the large market it is backing is large or small, and how scarce it is.