Blockbuster? Wait again.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “ FUNJI Seed Melon Base ” (ID: FUNJIdata), the author’s own hunter.
2019 is the winter of film and television.
The good news is that 2019 is over.
The bad news is that the winter is not over.
Financial pressure on film and television companies has increased. Whether it is a movie or a TV series, it is difficult to make a profit. Because of this, the film side and the platform are becoming more cautious.
FUNJI (ID: FUNJIdata) It is found that in 2020, iQiyi, Tencent Video, Youku three video website episode reserves are 58, 37 and 28 respectively, the total reserve is relatively Compared with 2019, it has decreased by 30.1%; Tencent Video has fallen by more than 50%.
In terms of broadcast episodes, Tencent will broadcast 149 episodes in 2019, which is 10 less than 2018 and a decrease of 6.28%.
Not only is the number of episodes broadcasted and reserves declining, but the startup rate is also continuing to decline. Hengdian and other film and television bases were deserted, and the news of “group performance changing to live broadcast” was endless. Therefore, the general trend of the decline in total reserves will not change in the short term.
Of course, on the other hand, the entire industry has also completed a round of “decreasing and increasing quality” .
Apart from the changes in quantity, what other notable events will happen in the 2020 drama market?
The bigger and bigger the cake, the fewer and fewer episodes.
From the total number, of the three platforms, only iQiyi’s episodes have achieved “uptrend against the market”, and both Youku and Tencent episodes have declined. This is due to the downturn of the film and television industry on the one hand, and the exhaustion of Internet dividends on the other.
In the second quarter of 2019, China Mobile’s daily Internet activity was 1.14 billion, a decrease of 2 million from the previous quarter. It has become a reality that the current round of mobile Internet dividends has been exhausted.
Affected by this, the scale of China’s online video users has also reached a bottleneck period. Although the absolute number has increased year after year, the annual increase has been less than 7%. The proportion of users in the total number of Internet users has also reached a plateau. From the first half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, it has only increased by 0.1% in one year.
But even so, the number of paid members on the three platforms is still rising. On December 27th, after experiencing the VVIP turmoil of “Year of the Qing”, Tencent announced in the 2019 annual data report that the daily average coverage of the entire platform has exceeded 200 million, and the number of paid members has exceeded 100 million.
The establishment of fan consumption habits and the continuous output of high-quality content have also supported the continuous growth of the online video market.
The scale of China’s online video market will continue to grow in 2019. According to data collected by FUNJI, the scale of China’s online video market in 2019 is expected to be 254.5 billion yuan, an increase of 26.2% over 2018.
Although it has declined slightly compared to previous years, the absolute amount of growth is also likely to exceed 40 billion yuan. By 2020, this scale is expected to exceed 310 billion yuan. From 2014, the size of China’s online video market will skyrocket 10 times within 6 years.
It is precisely seeing this momentum. In 2019, Tencent, iQiyi and other platforms have launched “spot screening in advance” activities, and have achieved certain success. Although it has been “crushed” by fans and public opinion, for the video platforms that have been losing money for years, differentiated payments are likely to become more common in 2020 .
In terms of genre, currently FUNJI finds that among the 123 titles published by the three major platforms, including Uiarteng, the largest proportion is action suspense dramas, with a total of 38 titles, accounting for 30.9% of the total.
But even so, the number of paid members on the three platforms is still rising. On December 27th, after experiencing the VVIP turmoil of “Year of the Qing”, Tencent announced in the 2019 annual data report that the daily average coverage of the entire platform has exceeded 200 million, and the number of paid members has exceeded 100 million. The scale of China’s online video market will continue to grow in 2019. According to data collected by FUNJI, the scale of China’s online video market in 2019 is expected to be 254.5 billion yuan, an increase of 26.2% over 2018. In terms of genre, currently FUNJI finds that among the 123 titles published by the three major platforms, including Uiarteng, the largest proportion is action suspense dramas, with a total of 38 titles, accounting for 30.9% of the total.