During the rise of traffic, a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities were born.
Editor’s note: This article comes from WeChat public account “New List” (ID: newrankcn) , Author The editor of the new list, reproduced with permission.
In recent years, new business vocabulary has emerged endlessly, live e-commerce, social e-commerce … huge opportunities that seem to be hidden behind each. But looking back at the Internet content entrepreneurship set off by the rise of the public account, seven years have passed, and the success model has not been as many as expected. How big is the value behind these commercial buzz words, Li Feng, founding partner of Fengrui Capital, brought some of his thoughts to the 2020 New List Conference.
The following content is organized from the live speech and confirmed by the guest himself:
There have been a lot of changes in the past year. Today, I was fortunate to be invited to share with you. As investors, we are basically sitting on the second line, neither operating on the front line nor directly seeing the latest changes, we can only see some indirect feedback.
In the past 4 or 5 years, all the well-known words I listed have appeared in all fields related to traffic and business, such as live e-commerce, social e-commerce, new retail, private domain traffic. Like today’s short videos and live broadcasts, they are huge bonuses, gospels for entrepreneurs, and opportunities for new companies. There are also challenges for investors.
The reason is that too many words are changing too fast, and before they can clearly see their advantages and disadvantages and opportunities, they have changed to the next word, so investors are also very anxious.
We have witnessed some hot topics in the past few days. I talk about two things that I am quite impressed with.
The first is the famous New Year’s speech by Luo Zhenyu.
The second is the New Year’s Eve Party at Station B.
Then last Sunday, my child and I discussed the financial management knowledge in the homework. He took out 500 yuan to invest in me. I was investing. Let him use 500 yuan to buy his father’s investment. “Company” stock, what is a good company? I said, “Choose what you know and used”, so he finally chose 3 companies, one of which was station B. How to choose a good company, I will say later.
I just mentioned Station B. Chen Rui used to be anxious and the new platform was rising. He wanted to know what to do. I said it didn’t matterYes, you will eventually. As for how to do it, let’s explore it later.
01. Changes in traffic from Weibo to WeChat: two types of content finally precipitated
Let’s start with a chronological example. The first one, everyone has experienced, also started from WeChat. Let’s see what happened in the WeChat ecosystem in the past 6 or 7 years? Mapping to today in order, what are the things worth referring to?
The mobile Internet around 2011-2012, the first thing that almost everyone surfs the Internet is to use Weibo, everyone ’s actions are pull down, 50 clicks, look for a long time, and 50 article.
At that time, the first wave of traffic dividends appeared on Weibo, represented by 100,000 cold jokes. Weibo has gone through the first stage of rapid growth. After the huge traffic dividend, a lot of ecology related to Weibo has also emerged. For example, selling things on Weibo is the online red e-commerce.
However, at that time, the Chinese Internet giants always had their own moats. Weibo was not allowed to put Taobao links until Ali voted on Weibo. At the hottest stage of this stage, in 2015, there was a current listed company, Ruhan.
Let’s talk about WeChat. When there was no WeChat public account in the circle of friends, you were pleasantly surprised. Because you see the filtered information, you feel that the efficiency is much less than the repetition rate of those 50 Weibos. You think that friends have helped you filter the information.
At that time, many people did n’t have many WeChat friends, so the filtered information was very effective. At least, some problems were solved for a long time.
Next comes the era of the new list, which is the era of WeChat public account. When the official name first came out, everyone was ecstatic, because there were never so many extremely powerful people and people with special skills to help you write things. So in the early days of the public account launch, there were several phenomena:
1. As a consumer, you are ecstatic and subscribed to numerous WeChat public accounts. At that time, a new list appeared.
2. Following this huge traffic bonus, the first wave of e-commerce on WeChat came out. We call them WeChat, peer-to-peer, and community. Beginning in August 2012, there was a WeChat public account, followed by a large number of public account numbers. In the past four or two years, the proportion of public accounts that sell goods directly should have dropped a lot, and some people just advertise.
In 2014, you may subscribeThere are many public accounts, but now, your habits and user behavior are definitely different from those of six or seven years ago. Now you still have the precious public name, there are probably only a few categories left:
In the first category, you have an emotional account, regardless of the creator or the content direction;
In the second category, you are very convinced that the author, this column and this institution after screening will often write professional content that will convince you and be interested.
The rest is that you occasionally brush up some of the popular models that everyone is spreading, or the less popular ones that you are interested in.
Take the six or seven years of WeChat that you are most familiar with as an example. You are a user, a creator, or even a business model creator. The user behavior of these roles has changed.
Users ’mentality will undergo a change. When any new media form begins, they will join it very actively, but after a long or short period, and no longer than 3 years, they will be very Quickly change from this type of media form and content to what they like and what they agree with on professional content, instead of browsing and subscribing in a broad sense.
The reason is very simple. Every time such an opportunity appears, it will stimulate a large number of new creators and incremental users. A little trouble.
For users, this trouble is information overload. To screen for similar content, users have to pay huge time and energy costs. Slowly, due to efficiency-oriented, users will tend to be sympathetic or professional, he believes that the content has trust and professionalism. account number.
02. Selling logic: people who are willing to buy and watch should be the same kind of person
Besides the performance of the commercial side, although in 2014-2015, almost all public accounts tried to bring the goods once and sold their e-commerce, just like Weibo and Ali opened in 2014-2015, all the Weibo No. Both try to sell the same. But to this day, whether it is Weibo or WeChat public account, not many people sell well.
There may be two reasons:
First, if you use WeChat public account, or any other form of new media to carry goods, you can have the opportunity to monetize the traffic while the user remains sufficiently fresh.
From the perspective of our investors, there are huge opportunities for entrepreneurship, but there is a small challenge behind monetization. Almost all people who buy things because they read an article are paying advertising fees for people who like content. . In other words, people who buy things and people who like content are two kinds of people, at least not exactly one kind of person. Although there are duplicates, bringing goods and selling goods leads to insufficient crowd overlap and loss of efficiency.
But we also see another kind of phenomenon, just look at the graphic part of WeChat public accountIn this case, there is already a type of business model that has been basically verified successfully today, that is, payment of knowledge. The reason is simple. Everyone who likes to read this content happens to be someone who likes and is willing to buy this knowledge paid product. This is the business logic of paying for knowledge.
Second, from the logic of the final settlement of each wave of new media business, not all categories and industries will be suitable for the content form of this media and the traffic characteristics of this platform. If we look for suitable points from the perspective of the content that users like, what they want to buy, and the increase in user time, the best-performing category of goods and services is the opportunity to innovate business models.
So, in this round of WeChat public account, knowledge payment is the business model that can both disseminate articles and sell goods most efficiently, assuming that we call knowledge also goods. Knowledge-based pay-for-sale is the most efficient, because its content, goods, and this new media form and new traffic are all the same thing.
Looking at what happened today and the simple phenomenon mentioned at the beginning, we can see why it can be used as a representative of knowledge payment.
The answer to station B is the same. Today we see a lot of phenomena on fast hands and vibrato. They are very similar to the 100,000 cold jokes on Weibo from 2011 to 2012, or various so-called entertainment content. , But we said to Chen Rui at the time that no matter how long or short the user spends, they will eventually return to inspiration and content efficiency, instead of staying only in entertaining content, users will not just spend time in a new media The entertainment content of the form.
The second point is that during the rise of traffic, a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities were born, such as Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya. We know that both of them will sell goods, and cosmetics are particularly good, but this is because videos are cosmetics The best form of display, but not the era of graphics.
There is also a short video phenomenon. If we apply what happened on Weibo and WeChat, it will be very interesting. We have invested in a company, “No Music”. At that time, the first wave of live broadcast, that is, the era of Yingke, they happened to dig a creative singer on campus. At that time, all the live broadcasts were younger brothers and sisters. After the users were tired, they wanted to see something else. They thought that the creative type Singers can broadcast live on the live broadcast platform. Later, it was found that the content of live broadcast is relatively inefficient for users because they cannot browse, and they cannot browse on multiple channels at the same time.
So, “Don’t Music” went on fire a little bit, and later they did something on the short video. For the whole year starting from the beginning of last year, among the ten hottest songs of the year, The two or three capitals are their favorite. The key point is that, in the form of short videos, the performance of songs / MVs on the platform of Douyin is the content presented by the platform itself, and the convergence is very consistent.
Like the WeChat public account, the graphic era has a relatively successful and long-term business model of paying for knowledge. In short videos,There are some industries whose forms in front of the audience include the content itself, the goods and services it sells, which produce a high degree of consistency and a high degree of user experience. For example, we pay to celebrate the rest of the year. At this time, people who are willing to see and buy are a class of people. On this basis, some new business models will appear.
Music may be one of them.
In the past, after music was digitally destroyed, the market did not establish a new cycle of the music chain. Now short videos are appearing, and everyone is willing to watch this kind of semi-entertaining and content-oriented video. They have shot a lot more like everyone MTV singers in life push songs, which has a higher user experience than short videos.
Second, users found favorite songs and singers, they can go directly to the cloud music to find, through the copyright payment allows singers to directly get the cost on the same link.
In other words, I heard this song, or this singer, I can directly find this song and download it, and pay a little money as the copyright fee. In the form of short videos, the user’s favorite content, favorite objects, and methods he is willing to pay can happen to be completed online, and this media’s performance form is very suitable for this form to be re-formed into a closed loop.
Finally, like the graphic age and the early years of audio, that is, four or five years ago, we had almost the only innovative business model like payment of knowledge. The survival of the business model now and in the last new media era is Same, why? Because five years ago, knowledge payment happened to be content that users like to read and products that they were willing to buy were equipped with new media and new traffic. These things are combined, and there is almost no loss of efficiency, so it is an innovative model.
The final conclusion is simple, so many new words come out, but in the end, every reallocation of user time will generate new traffic opportunities. But every time a new traffic opportunity starts, it looks like a lot of opportunities. It seems that everyone can make money for a long time and everything can be sold.
But the final result is not the same. In the end, it must be consistent with the “high consistency” I just said. The form of content, the form of goods and services, and the characteristics of the paying group have the advantage of consistency. Consistency of the likes of goods, the most efficient people can get the longest dividends, and can innovate industry and business models.
This is probably a bit of a one-sided opinion that we have obtained by observing each traffic and business model for more than 5 years. All traffic times and bonuses are great opportunities for entrepreneurs. Only such opportunities can make everyone Start from 0 and quickly grow larger, completing at least the first small accumulation.
Besides the performance of the commercial side, although in 2014-2015, almost all public accounts tried to bring the goods once and sold their e-commerce, just like Weibo and Ali opened in 2014-2015, all the Weibo No. Both try to sell the same. But to this day, whether it is Weibo or WeChat public account, not many people sell well.
There may be two reasons:
First, if you use WeChat public account, or any other form of new media to carry goods, you can have the opportunity to monetize the traffic while the user remains sufficiently fresh.
From the perspective of our investors, there are huge opportunities for entrepreneurship, but there is a small challenge behind monetization. Almost all people who buy things because they read an article are paying advertising fees for people who like content. . In other words, people who buy things and people who like content are two kinds of people, at least not exactly one kind of person. Although there are duplicates, bringing goods and selling goods leads to insufficient crowd overlap and loss of efficiency.
But we also see another kind of phenomenon, just look at the graphic part of WeChat public accountIn this case, there is already a type of business model that has been basically verified successfully today, that is, payment of knowledge. The reason is simple. Everyone who likes to read this content happens to be someone who likes and is willing to buy this knowledge paid product. This is the business logic of paying for knowledge.
Second, from the logic of the final settlement of each wave of new media business, not all categories and industries will be suitable for the content form of this media and the traffic characteristics of this platform. If we look for suitable points from the perspective of the content that users like, what they want to buy, and the increase in user time, the best-performing category of goods and services is the opportunity to innovate business models.
So, in this round of WeChat public account, knowledge payment is the business model that can both disseminate articles and sell goods most efficiently, assuming that we call knowledge also goods. Knowledge-based pay-for-sale is the most efficient, because its content, goods, and this new media form and new traffic are all the same thing.
Looking at what happened today and the simple phenomenon mentioned at the beginning, we can see why it can be used as a representative of knowledge payment.
The answer to station B is the same. Today we see a lot of phenomena on fast hands and vibrato. They are very similar to the 100,000 cold jokes on Weibo from 2011 to 2012, or various so-called entertainment content. , But we said to Chen Rui at the time that no matter how long or short the user spends, they will eventually return to inspiration and content efficiency, instead of staying only in entertaining content, users will not just spend time in a new media The entertainment content of the form.
The second point is that during the rise of traffic, a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities were born, such as Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya. We know that both of them will sell goods, and cosmetics are particularly good, but this is because videos are cosmetics The best form of display, but not the era of graphics.
There is also a short video phenomenon. If we apply what happened on Weibo and WeChat, it will be very interesting. We have invested in a company, “No Music”. At that time, the first wave of live broadcast, that is, the era of Yingke, they happened to dig a creative singer on campus. At that time, all the live broadcasts were younger brothers and sisters. After the users were tired, they wanted to see something else. They thought that the creative type Singers can broadcast live on the live broadcast platform. Later, it was found that the content of live broadcast is relatively inefficient for users because they cannot browse, and they cannot browse on multiple channels at the same time.
So, “Don’t Music” went on fire a little bit, and later they did something on the short video. For the whole year starting from the beginning of last year, among the ten hottest songs of the year, The two or three capitals are their favorite. The key point is that, in the form of short videos, the performance of songs / MVs on the platform of Douyin is the content presented by the platform itself, and the convergence is very consistent.
Like the WeChat public account, the graphic era has a relatively successful and long-term business model of paying for knowledge. In short videos,There are some industries whose forms in front of the audience include the content itself, the goods and services it sells, which produce a high degree of consistency and a high degree of user experience. For example, we pay to celebrate the rest of the year. At this time, people who are willing to see and buy are a class of people. On this basis, some new business models will appear.
Music may be one of them.
In the past, after music was digitally destroyed, the market did not establish a new cycle of the music chain. Now short videos are appearing, and everyone is willing to watch this kind of semi-entertaining and content-oriented video. They have shot a lot more like everyone MTV singers in life push songs, which has a higher user experience than short videos.
Second, users found favorite songs and singers, they can go directly to the cloud music to find, through the copyright payment allows singers to directly get the cost on the same link.
In other words, I heard this song, or this singer, I can directly find this song and download it, and pay a little money as the copyright fee. In the form of short videos, the user’s favorite content, favorite objects, and methods he is willing to pay can happen to be completed online, and this media’s performance form is very suitable for this form to be re-formed into a closed loop.
Finally, like the graphic age and the early years of audio, that is, four or five years ago, we had almost the only innovative business model like payment of knowledge. The survival of the business model now and in the last new media era is Same, why? Because five years ago, knowledge payment happened to be content that users like to read and products that they were willing to buy were equipped with new media and new traffic. These things are combined, and there is almost no loss of efficiency, so it is an innovative model.
The final conclusion is simple, so many new words come out, but in the end, every reallocation of user time will generate new traffic opportunities. But every time a new traffic opportunity starts, it looks like a lot of opportunities. It seems that everyone can make money for a long time and everything can be sold.
But the final result is not the same. In the end, it must be consistent with the “high consistency” I just said. The form of content, the form of goods and services, and the characteristics of the paying group have the advantage of consistency. Consistency of the likes of goods, the most efficient people can get the longest dividends, and can innovate industry and business models.
This is probably a bit of a one-sided opinion that we have obtained by observing each traffic and business model for more than 5 years. All traffic times and bonuses are great opportunities for entrepreneurs. Only such opportunities can make everyone Start from 0 and quickly grow larger, completing at least the first small accumulation.