“People tend to overestimate what happened in one year, but underestimate what will happen in the next ten years.”
Shen Translation Bureau is its compilation team, focusing on technology, business, workplace, life and other fields. New foreign technologies, new perspectives, and new trends.
Editor’s note: Investors are the people who are closest to the prophets. In this important year 2020, Silicon Valley’s top investor Fred Wilson wrote his own thinking and predictions for the next ten years. In his eyes, the next ten years What will happen to the world? What new areas are worth watching? Read them together. The article was translated from Fred Wilson’s blog AVC, and the original title was What will happen in the 2020s.
One of my favorite words from Bill Gates: “ People tend to overestimate what happened in one year, but underestimate what happened in the next ten years. ”
For humans, the next decade is very important. In the next ten years, we need to find answers to questions that have been lingering in our hearts.
I am an optimist. I believe that people have the courage to face challenges and the wisdom to find solutions. So, I am optimistic about the beginning of 2020. Here is my outlook for the next ten years.
1. The climate crisis is imminent, just like the eve of the outbreak of the two world wars. Addressing the climate crisis requires countries and institutions to mobilize funds in various fields to re-allocate funds to combat global warming.
In the next ten years, we will see: Capital will be reallocated; carbon emissions tax policy will be tightened, and most countries in the world, including the United States, will levy carbon emissions; subject to climate change In severely affected areas, real estate prices will plummet; in areas that benefit from climate warming, real estate prices will rise; in the future, a large amount of capital will be invested to protect key areas and infrastructure; nuclear energy will be used globally The domestic revival, especially those smaller reactors that are easier to build and operate more safely, will be very popular; by 2030, global solar installed capacity will increase from the current 650 GW to more than 20,000 GW. All these things will cause capital markets to pay more attention to and finance climate issues, while funding for other areas will decrease.
2. Automation will continue to reduce the operating costs of many services and systems that we rely on to survive and produce. Who will get such a huge consumer surplus will determine the political landscape for the next decade. We will see more and more scrutiny of capitalism, and experiments to redistribute wealth and income more equitably will generate a new generation of world leaders who will be welcomed in this wave.
3. With its technological strength and ability to adapt to new changes quickly, China will become the world’s dominant global superpower. Instead, the United States will become increasingly focused on internal affairs and isolationism.
4. Countries will issue and promote their digital / encrypted versions of fiat currencies. China will become the first country to eat crabs and benefit the most. The United States is slow to act because of regulatory constraints, allowing other countries and regions to take the lead in the crypto space. Crypto asset exchanges in Asia will not be subject to the cumbersome regulatory restrictions of Europe and the United States. By using decentralized financial technology, they will become the main capital market for all types of financial instruments.
5. Decentralized Internet will appear. The initial form of presentation is decentralized infrastructure services, such as storage, bandwidth, and computing. The development of decentralized consumer applications is slow, and killer consumer applications will not appear until 2025.
6. Ten years later, the plant-based diet will dominate the world. Eating meat will become a rare dish, just like eating caviar today. Most of the world’s food production will be transferred from farms to laboratories.
7. Exploration and commercialization of outer space will be led by private companies because governments are reluctant to invest in this area. In the first few years of the next decade, there will be a wave of hype and investment in space business, but the return on investment is slow. By 2030, people will be at the trough of the illusion of space business.
8. Large-scale government and company monitoring will become the norm. It is expected that in the next decade, people will increasingly turn to new products and services to protect themselves from monitoring. In the next ten years, the largest consumer technology products will appear in the field of privacy.
9. We will finally say goodbye to the era when baby boomers have the right to speak in the United States and around the world. Millennials and Generation Z will take charge of a large number of companies or institutions in 2030. Shareholders, voters, and other stakeholders will no longer value people’s age and experience, but more vision and courage.
10. The continuous progress of genetics will be a great success in the next ten years, and cancer and other incurable diseases will be better recognized and treated. Fertility will also change significantly. However, genetics also creates new diseases and ethical / ethical issues that disrupt society. Balancing the gains and losses of genetics will be our biggest challenge in the next decade.
The above ten predictions are enough for now, and enough for me. I hope this article has given you some thought. This is the purpose of this article. These predictions may not all be correct, but it is important that you think about them.
Translator: Yang Zhifang