The article is from the WeChat public account: Extraordinary fritters (ID: ffyoutiao) , author: shrimp dumplings, from the title figure: Figure worm
Beijing house price cuts hit a hot search some time ago. It is said that compared with the highest point in 2017, Beijing house prices in November 2019 fell by about 18.5%, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses also fell.
However, this doubled and discounted behavior is not well bought, especially for the huge population of Beibei. The house price drop from 60,000 to 58,000 is almost the same as Lamborghini’s second 5 yuan coupon.
Migration population refers to adult children of childbearing age who have left the county or city where their household registration is located and live in a different place for work and living purposes. Unlike migration, although it is divided into permanent and short-term migrants, this type of migration does not permanently change the place of residence.
According to the data in the “Blue Book on Social Integration of Floating Population: Assessment Report on Social Integration of Urban Floating Population in China No. 1” released in 2018, the number of floating population has increased from 6.57 million in 1982 to 247 million in 2015. With the economic growth slowing down, population flows have also stabilized, and in 2018 this number became 241 million.
But this is still a big number, equivalent to two Japan.
I can imagineMost of the composition of the floating population is from the agricultural population to urban labor. The accumulation of human capital brought by this labor concentration has made great contributions to economic development and urbanization. As the population entering the city slows down, in order to maintain urban expansion, many cities have introduced policies and measures to attract population inflows. It is expected that the population will change as the population moves, and housing will be settled to drive GDP.
But the sky is always unsatisfactory, and the decline in the size of the migrant population that began to appear in 2015 also shows that house prices do seem to have a negative impact on their long-term residency.
For most migrants, the ratio of renting a home is still higher than buying. After all, the average price of China’s commercial housing in 1998 was only 2062 yuan per square meter, and by 2018 it had become 8,736 yuan per square meter, an increase of 3.2 times. This is only an average, and the increase in first- and second-tier housing prices is even more impressive.
Rental rents have a subtle relationship with house prices, mainly manifested in rising house prices and rising rents, and falling house prices and rents may not necessarily follow.
Rising rents mean a higher cost of living, naturally squeezing other consumer desires. I can still watch a concert in the past and buy a bag for my girlfriend by the way, and pay one to three rents to eat your salary that you have accumulated for several months. I am afraid that the special gift package in mobile games will hesitate a few . Buying a house is even more unrealistic. After all, the soul of the hometown can still tolerate the flesh. They may eventually move to cities with lower housing prices. In short, their willingness to stay long-term will not be high.
But from another perspective, the higher the house price, the higher the income in general. The higher the monthly household income, the greater the chance of buying a house. The income level has a positive effect on the willingness to stay. To influence. In China, housing is never the pile of reinforced concrete itself, but a product of urban public services. For migrants who are already driving in the morning, it doesn’t make much sense to go again.
If it is difficult to accurately explain the migrants ’willingness to stay from the perspective of house price changes, other factors such as income and public services must be considered.
For example, when house prices are directly proportional to income, will an increase in income increase personal consumption expenditure? Rising house prices crowd out consumption, can that increase income? The direction in which house prices influence the desire of migrants to stay long-term is uncertain, and it mainly depends on urban policies and personal choices.
Finally, there are also geographical reasons for choosing to settle. The range of the floating population is mainly inter-provincial, and from the perspective of willingness to stay, the housing ownership ratio of the floating population across counties in the city