What luxury fashion retailers did not expect is that the huge blow from Hong Kong has not yet ended and they will encounter “black swans” again.

With the reduction of tariffs to narrow the global spread, in recent years, domestic consumers have become more and more accustomed to buying luxury goods in China. Major luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci and Hermès have also increased their store openings, but now the new crown-like The outbreak of viral pneumonia, Dow Jones analyst Pierre Brian warned in a report released on Monday that luxury retail environments around the world, especially in major cities in mainland China, are not optimistic.

Pierre Brian said that due to health concerns, many Chinese tourists canceled the Chinese New Year holiday plan, and shopping desire was sluggish. In recent years, luxury brands that have put eggs in the basket of China have seen a decline Especially in the severe epidemics of Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, according to fashion business news data monitoring, the flow of luxury shopping malls in these cities has dropped by 80% compared with last year. Earlier data showed that sales of luxury brands in the severely affected areas during the SARS outbreak in 2003 fell by about 40%.

More alarming for the luxury goods industry is that new coronavirus pneumonia has spread to other parts of the world, and Thailand, Singapore, the United States, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, France, Vietnam, Canada, and Germany have also appeared. Confirm the patient. According to Liang Zhuowei, director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Diseases Epidemiology and Control, the new pneumonia epidemic will not turn around until April to May, and will only slowly decline in June and July.

The impact of

is also directly reflected in the capital market. As of the close of Monday, the share price of LVMH, the world ’s largest luxury goods group, fell by 3.68% to 401 euros. %, Cartier’s parent company Richemont shares fell 1.17%. According to a report from equity brokerage Equita, the entire luxury goods industry developed well before the outbreak, with an average market value of 24 times the expected profit in 2021, which is 80% higher than the STOXX 600 index.

The picture shows the stock price fluctuations of LVMH, Kering Group and Hermès in the past 5 days.

It is worth noting that the LVMH Group pointed out in its last quarterly earnings report that even with the global economic slowdown, more and more young and affluent consumers in mainland China are still driving demand growth.

According to the fashion business news data, in the first three quarters as of the end of September last year, LVMH sales rose 16% year-on-year to 38.398 billion euros, of which sales in the third quarter increased 11% to 13.3 billion euros Higher-than-expected analysts’ growth of 8.8% and sales of 12.7 billion euros.

Driven by the strong growth of core brands Louis Vuitton and Dior, sales of the LVMH fashion leather goods division rose 19% to 5.448 billion euros in the third quarter, and have recorded double-digit growth for the 12th consecutive quarter, compared with the first three quarters Rose 22% to 15.873 billion euros, becoming the group’s main source of growth. Although LVMH never releases specific sales data for its brands, the group chairman Bernard Arnault disclosed earlier this year that Louis Vuitton had sales of 10 billion euros last year, and Dior’s annual revenue has successfully advanced into the 5 billion euro club.

Given the fact that offline physical retail is temporarily stranded,Ank SKP opened seven new stores in one breath, three main brands Prada, two Miu Miu and two Church’s. Other brands included Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Givenchy, Céline, Dior and Hermes.

The longer the epidemic lasts, the greater the impact on the industry. How to overcome this crisis has become a top priority for major luxury fashion groups. Coach CEO Joshua Schulman said in an interview with the media in 2018 that the Chinese market is expected to become the brand’s largest source of revenue in the world. Yang Yan, president and CEO of Coach Greater China, also said in an exclusive interview earlier that the brand will continue Increase investment in China.

Now it appears that, with the worsening retail environment and the new pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong, luxury fashion retail giants will gradually spread their focus to other markets to spread risk. Louis Vuitton will open Japan’s largest flagship store in Shinsaibashi, Osaka on February 1st. On October 30 last year, Louis Vuitton also opened a new flagship store, Louis Vuitton Maison Seoul, in Seoul, South Korea. This move is considered a bet on Hong Kong Strategy for tourists to flow to Seoul.

LVMH ’s full-year results to be announced after the close of Paris on Tuesday will be key. It may calm the market to some extent and convince investors that the luxury fashion industry is still full of sustainable growth momentum. Although LVMH has never announced the results of specific countries or regions, its sales in Asian markets including China account for 30% of total revenue, which is inseparable from the contribution of Chinese consumers.

However, the luxury goods industry is characterized by rapid changes, even in the promising Chinese market.