During the Chinese New Year in 2020, mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market will decline by about 50% –60%, resulting in about 50–60 million high-water inventory levels.
Editor’s note: This article comes from Tencent Technology , author Silicon Valley Analysis Lion.
February 3 news, according to the latest report given by Tian Ming International’s well-known analyst Guo Mingzhang, there are no small challenges in the mobile phone industry in the first quarter of 2020. For example, Apple has cut its iPhone shipments this quarter 10% (at least one million).
In the report, in the first quarter of 2020, the mobile phone industry, mobile phone brands and the industry chain are facing three potential risks, namely:
1. China ’s mobile phone shipments will be lower than market expectations;
2, 5G mobile phones contributed less than expected to the Android brand replacement demand;
3, iPhone supply was affected by the outbreak in 1Q20, so shipments were lower than expected.
Guo Mingji believes that the above three potential risks, risk 1 and risk 2 are demand issues, and the outbreak of the epidemic is only accelerating these two emergence. Risk 3 is more like a supply-side problem. Specifically, during the Chinese New Year of 2020, mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market will decline by about 50% –60%, resulting in about 50–60 million high-water inventory levels. China’s mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market in 2019 are about 360-380 million units, due to lower-than-expected demand for 5G replacements and the negative impact of consumer outbreaks on consumer confidence. It is expected that China’s mobile phone shipments will decline by 15% in 2020 to 310-330 million units (vs. Market consensus of 330-350 million units).
At present, destocking is the top priority of the current Chinese Android brand, so each brand will launch an active promotion. If all goes well, the inventory level may fall to the normal level in the second or third quarter of 2020. The process of transformation will be detrimental to the shipment of new Chinese brands and related industrial chains.
Guo Mingming also said that Samsung is the most active brand to promote 5G in the high-end Android mobile phone market. Huawei ca n’t use GMS to stop selling in overseas markets. It is reasonable to deal with Samsung. However, Samsung ’s mobile phone shipments were in 4Q19 and January 2020. Mobile phone shipmentsInstead, both declined by 5-10% to 69 million and 23 million units respectively, which means that 5G is not helpful for high-end mobile phone replacement demand and brand value, so the key to the replacement demand is not as important as 5G cannot create innovative user experience Therefore, even if the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones grows rapidly due to the replacement of 4G mobile phones, the overall mobile phone market is still in decline, which is not conducive to the growth of brands and industrial chains.
As for Apple, iPhone supply was affected by the outbreak in the first quarter of this year, and its shipments will be reduced by about 10% to 36-40 million units (vs. 38 million units in 1Q19).
Before that, the forecast report given by Strategy Analytics, another market research agency, stated that the Chinese smartphone market will decline by 30% in the first quarter of this year, which will be the largest decline in recent years. This is mainly due to the impact of the new coronavirus. In 2020, the global smartphone market will decline by 2%, and China’s smartphone market will decline by 5% than expected. Among them, Q1 will be the most affected and will decline by more than 30%.
The global and Chinese smartphone markets have become saturated, and they are also declining, especially in the off-season such as Q1. IDC data in Q1 2019 show that global smartphone shipments were 310 million units, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. China The smartphone market shipped 88 million units, down 3%.
In other words, an additional decline on the original basis. A 30% drop in domestic smartphones means that I will ship less than 25-30 million smartphones in Q1 of 2019. For Huami OV and Apple, Samsung, etc. It’s even worse for the company.
Apple will launch 7 new products in the first half of this year
Last week, a report from Guo Mingying said that the potential impact of the epidemic on Apple, such as the potential mass production risks caused by delayed start-ups and lack of labor for new product suppliers, shipments and time May not be as good as expected, such as new product verification, mass production time and Apple’s new product design and development may be delayed.
The report also revealed 7 new Apple products that will appear in the first half of 2020, including 4.7-inch LCD iPhone, iPad Pro, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, small wireless charging pad, UWB tag and high-end Bluetooth headset.
In addition, Guo Mingxuan also said that Apple plans to release an iPhone with Touch ID power button design in the first half of 2021. This iPhone will be equipped with an LCD display, which also implies that it will be a low-cost iPhone. According to a report released by Guo Mingzhang last month, this device does not have a Face ID component, so its screen gap is narrow. The Touch ID power button design adopted by the new iPhone is capacitive, and Apple will also adopt a “new design”To improve the user experience.
China’s mobile phone market is fiercely competitive Huawei continues to lead the way
Summarizing the latest reports of market analysis companies such as Strategy Analytics, Counterpoint Research, and Canalys, the global shipments of Samsung mobile phones in the whole year of 2019 were 300 million units, with a market share of 21.8%. The market share is 17.6%, which is an increase from 14.4% last year; Apple ’s global iPhone shipments were 198 million units, and the market share was 14.5%. The monthly sales of Huawei mobile phones surpassed that of Apple for the first time in June and July 2017. In 2019, Huawei’s annual sales of mobile phones exceeded Apple for the first time.
Specifically, in the Chinese market, Huawei will continue to be the top leader in the Chinese smartphone market with a market share of 38.5% in 2019. After Huawei, the second to fifth places are: OPPO (17.8%), vivo (17.0%), Xiaomi (10.5%), and Apple (7.5%). The above five smart phone manufacturers have monopolized more than 90% of the market share, and the market share of other smart phone brands has been extremely compressed, which together accounted for 8.7%.
In terms of global 5G mobile phone shipments in 2019, Huawei ranks first in the world with 6.9 million units and a market share of 36.9%, followed by Samsung with 6.5 million shipments Taiwan, with a market share of 35.8%, ranked third is vivo, with 2 million units shipped, accounting for 10.7%.
In the top five list, there are also Xiaomi and LG. The shipments of the two are 1.2 million and 900,000 respectively, and the market share is 1.2% and 0.9%. 5G mobile phones are focused on sales, so they do not appear in the top five, as is Apple.