This article is from the WeChat public account: Get a car agency (ID: gaocheshe) , author: cat Ning community new drivers, from the cover: Oriental IC
Originally, today should be the first day of formal resumption of work after the delay of the Spring Festival holiday. However, because the severity of the epidemic is different in various regions, many companies have extended their holidays after the Lantern Festival or switched to online work, such as our company.
As a self-media practitioner, as long as you have a computer and a network, it is actually the same where you work.
For other industries, such as the automobile manufacturing industry, which rely on manpower to operate, a large amount of direct or indirect economic losses may be caused by delaying the start of construction.
Taking SARS in 2003 as an example, even at the time when the domestic automobile manufacturing industry was actually developing at a high speed, the terminal market was in short supply, and many factories had returned to work during SARS. Sales are still down 16.85%. (outbreak period in April)
However, compared with the past, the economic losses caused by this year ’s epidemic are absolutely overwhelming, especially in Hubei area.This) .
On the one hand, the production side is blocked.
In order to prevent the epidemic from spreading further due to the peak of the return journey, the State Council extended the Spring Festival holiday, which caused many factories to postpone the resumption of work. One of the most direct consequences was the obstruction of capacity.
Take Dongfeng Honda, for example, according to China Daily, Dongfeng Honda has built three factories in Wuhan, with a total annual production capacity of about 632,000 units. If we do not consider other factors to make a rough estimate, the daily production capacity of Dongben in Wuhan can reach about 1755 units. In addition to some scattered costs such as manual wages and machinery, every day of work stoppage, the economic loss incurred can be imagined.
I also checked the stock index of Dongfeng Group by the way. From the announcement of the extension of the Spring Festival holiday on January 27, to the opening of January 29, Dongfeng Group’s stock fell by 9.46%. The reason is also very simple. Dongfeng has multiple factories in Hubei Province and occupies most of the production capacity. In addition, the sales of Peugeot and Citroen models of Dongfeng are largely dependent on local consumers in Hubei. Affected.
Although there is no guarantee that the drop of 100% is due to the delay in resumption of work, from the timeline perspective, the delay in resumption of work is at least one of the influencing factors.
In addition, after the announcement of the delayed resumption of work, Tata Motors also said that the outbreak of the outbreak may cause Jaguar Land Rover’s profit forecast for fiscal year 2020 to drop by nearly 3%.
Uncomfortable competitors. Would OEMs in other regions be better? I don’t see it.
Be aware that Hubei also has many auto parts factories, such as Webast (Skylight supplier) , Johnson Controls (Seat supplier) , TRW (Airbag) , MAHLE (Filtration system) etc. Their delayed resumption of work will also affect the production capacity of factories in other regions to a certain extent, and also because supplier parts cannot be followed up in time, affecting some models R & D progress.
There is a case for the economic impact of the supply chain disruption on OEMs.
As early as 2010, People’s Daily Online reported that Honda’s parts and components factories in China triggered a large-scale strike due to workers’ wages, resulting in the suspension of the East and Guangben factories. According to the estimates of Honda managers at the time, the total daily loss has exceeded 240 million yuan. It also does not include the loss of upstream parts and components supporting plants, and the loss of downstream dealers.
For another example, Hyundai officials recently said that due to the disruption of the supply chain, the company plans to suspend production of the Palisade SUV in South Korea this weekend. Not only that, Ssangyong Motor Co., which is also South Korea, will also close its South Korean factory from February 4th to February 12th due to problems in the Chinese supply chain.
Further, if you continue along this line, there may be a situation after that- New car listing nodes are slowing down, and new cars are coming together. This may result in increased publicity costs and poor publicity.
On the other hand, consumer purchasing power on the sales side has weakened.
This link is actually very easy to understand. The general logic is that consumers go out because of the epidemic, there is no staff circulation in 4S stores, and because of the economic impact, consumers’ purchasing power is impacted, which leads to sales decline.
So from an economic perspective, postponing the resumption of work is like a butterfly flapping its wings. The chain effects and economic losses caused by it are incalculable.
Of course, from the overall perspective, this delay in resuming work is correct and necessary. After all, compared with the safety of the people, this economic loss is acceptable. And the state has issued a lot of corresponding policies, such as reducing loan interest rates, increasing credit loans, etc., to minimize economic pressure on enterprises.
In addition, the crisis is also accompanied by opportunities. Many brands have derived “Internet +” means such as online car watching and live video car selling, such as Weilai and Tesla. This may stimulate the automotive industry in the future and lead to different sales methods.
Furthermore, waiting for the epidemic situation to be resolved, the long-sufficient purchase desire may have caused the automobile market to usher in a wave of car purchases, and those dealers who are backed up by inventory may also be relieved.
So in general, although the road ahead is difficult, there is still light. After all, we have not faced any difficulties.
Come on, everyone.
This article is from the WeChat public account: Get a car agency (ID: gaucheshe) , author: cat Ning new drivers association