This article comes from WeChat public account: interface culture (ID: Booksandfun) / span> , author: woods people
At the beginning of 2020, a sudden epidemic of new crown pneumonia disrupted people’s consumption rhythm. Due to epidemic prevention considerations, most Chinese people spend an unprecedentedly long Spring Festival holiday without leaving home. The Spring Festival in previous years was a rare golden period of consumption during the year, but except for a few online businesses, offline business has basically stagnated, especially in the tourism, catering and film industries.
Many people hoped for “revenge consumption” after the epidemic ended, and some analysts compared the new crown pneumonia epidemic with the SARS epidemic and pointed out that after the SARS epidemic ended in 2003, China ’s consumer market once again prospered and the economy resumed rapid growth The situation may happen again. However, financial writer Sun Xiaoyi believes that although there is a high probability that the Chinese consumer market will rebound, we still need to be alert to the long-term impact of repeated epidemics on people’s consumer mentality.
Graduated from The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sun Xiaoyin currently lives and works in Hong Kong, working in investment and financial review. In 2019, he published a book called “Ferocious Shopping”, which observes the thinking, behavior and social changes of Chinese people in the past 100 years from the perspective of consumption history.
In an interview with Interface Culture, he pointed out that the outbreak actually gave us a rare opportunity to reflect on consumerism. In the past few decades, consumption has become a certain social consensus and social rule, but the problems exposed by the outbreak remind us that we need to pay attention to other aspects of the needs, such as personal safety, Social stability and harmony, and a more humane social operation model.
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“Ferocious Shopping: The History of Chinese Consumption in the 20th Century” by Sun Xiaoyi, Dongfang Press 2019-2
If the epidemic is repeated, it will have an impact and change on consumer psychology.
Interface culture: When did you notice the new coronary pneumonia epidemic?
Sun Xiaoyi: There was a “suspected SARS” story in Hong Kong in mid-January, but it was not known at the time that it was a new type of pneumonia. At that time, I felt that this matter was more serious. I told some friends in the Mainland that they didn’t think it was a big deal. The last development exceeded my imagination, and it has now become a global event.
Interface culture: As a financial writer, what is your first feeling about the outbreak?
Sun Xiaoxun: The first reaction is to worry about the safety of human life. When this information lasts for a while, you will consider that this is certainly not good news for the Chinese economy. Once it is determined to be an infectious disease similar to SARS, economic activity will decrease.
Seniors here have told me that in financial institutions such as banks in Hong Kong in 2003, customers and staff were at least one or two meters apart, wearing masks, and rarely communicating. The cash was placed in a sealed plastic bag, and the customer quickly took it away. When there is no communication between people, economic activity drops to a very low level.
Interface culture: After the epidemic, how do you think the mentality of Chinese consumers will change? Will “retaliatory consumption” occur?
Sun Xiaoxun: Consumption is a ritualistic thing: I have to go to a shopping mall, look at clothes, shoes and bags, then watch a movie, then go to KTV … This is a set of procedures. Now this process cannot be done, and it becomes “buy things” based on basic needs. Of course, some individual industries are good, such as medical, biotechnology, and supplies. Now masks, removePoison water is selling well, but this is temporary. After the epidemic situation comes out, we still have to look at the situation in China as a whole.
After the epidemic improves, people ’s previously suppressed consumer demand and desire may rebound, but this rebound is limited compared to the past, because there are not as many people capable of large-scale consumption as before. Some middle class who have savings and investment and the epidemic will not have much impact on their personal financial status-I have read statistics, and there are reports predicting that almost 400 million people in China can be considered middle class in 2020. According to this broad definition, These middle-income groups can minimize the impact of the epidemic on personal finances— (revenge) consumption after the epidemic has passed.
We must also be alert to whether the epidemic will break out again when consumption rebounds and crowds gather. If the epidemic is repeated, there will be some shocks and changes to human consumption psychology, because the state of isolation will form a habit. Isn’t there a saying that it takes three weeks for a habit to form. If the saying is scientific, it means that people will not get used to the situation of crowd gathering immediately after a long isolation period, and Internet consumption may continue for a period of time. In that case, it will have a great impact on the catering industry, cinema lines, and tourism.
Interface culture: When it comes to changes in consumer mentality, I have seen some netizens recently said that the parents ’hoarding habits are actually very good. At this critical juncture, it is very important.
Sun Xiaoxun: The habit of stockpiling is not good. When you stockpile, it means that others cannot buy it. When the total supply is constant, this is a zero-sum game. I don’t think it is good to store goods, but to calculate a scientific quantity. I suggest you buy two or three bags of rice, but you do n’t have to buy too much. You have to keep some for others. You can support yourself for a month or two. Store your necessities a little. In case of emergency, you can reduce the number of trips To reduce the possibility of infection. There are really problems in the supply of some places. For example, in some urban communities in Hubei Province, you ca n’t go out if you do n’t buy good things in advance. This kind of stockpiling is meaningful. But if you are in a big first-tier city, don’t be too nervous for the time being.
The hoarding mentality of the previous generation is not this. Their growth environment is different from that of the 80s and 90s. Because they are really hungry and have not experienced enough consumer goods, they have this kind of pain. They will be very sensitive to this and love to store things when problems arise. There are not many young people who are particularly willing to hoard rice and materials, at least not as actively as the previous generationThat’s because they don’t have these in their collective memory.
If the epidemic lasts for a relatively long time, an effect similar to the above will be formed, and a collective memory will be formed. I believe that in the period after the epidemic has passed, the number of people wearing masks on the streets will increase, and people ’s hygiene habits will improve. The formation of a habit will cause a change in consumption concepts. Under certain social conditions, a new consumption culture will be formed.
China is still a consumption-driven society regardless of consumption upgrades
Interface culture: Since you wrote “Ferocious Shopping”, what new observations have you made about the Chinese consumer market?
Sun Xiaoyu: Consumption is the end phenomenon, and its starting end is the macro economy, especially the inflation of money and credit. This is a very simple interactive relationship.
According to official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP growth rate has fallen from 10% in 2010 to 6% in 2019. In 2010, consumption accounted for less than 40% of China’s economic growth, and it will account for 80% in 2020. It can be seen that consumption accounts for an increasing proportion of China’s economy. If people do not consume, the impact on the economy will be greater. This is why the country hopes to stimulate domestic demand, and hopes that people will consume, even if they lend you money for consumption.
We can also look at consumption from a financial perspective. First of all, in terms of payment cycle, (Payment cycle refers to the period from the decision to purchase to payment) , from 2015 to 2018 The average length of China’s payment cycle rose from 56 days to 86 days. This shows that the time it takes for us to pay through a mortgage loan has become longer, because the money in the pocket of ordinary people is not enough, so the payment cycle has become longer. Second, according to statistics from the central bank, China ’s household leverage has risen significantly. This increase is related to the growth of the payment cycle. According to bank card credit data, more and more people choose the minimum repayment option, which shows that the pressure on cash flow is increasing, because the money is not enough, only the repayment period can be extended.
Furthermore, Internet consumer loans have grown at an alarming rate. For example, the cumulative loan of micro particle loans has exceeded 300 billion yuan, and the total account of Ant Financial’s consumer loans is more than 600 billion yuan. In addition, various small loans are difficult to count. These consumer loan cycles are very short. Obviously, they are not used to buy a house, but are used to buy consumer goods, such as shoes, clothes, mobile phones, and bags.
Interface culture: In recent years, China has faced greater economic pressure, which has led many people to question whether the “consumption upgrade” that has been hot in recent years is a false proposition. What do you think about this?
Sun Xiaoxun: More than ten years have passed since the 2008 Olympic Games. Housing loans have become a huge burden for many people, and consumption has begun to be suppressed. The upgrade of consumption is not a comparison of numbers, but a mentality: I still want to consume so much, but still have to satisfy vanity, but I don’t have to buy it so well. It is a kind of consumerism with Chinese characteristics.
The psychological foundation is greedy for vanity-I consume it for others, and let others see me as glorious, but at the same time my financial situation is deteriorating, I can only reduce the level of purchase. Such a concept of “level” shows that people still agree with what is “higher” and what is “lower.” Consumerism is a symbol, a concept that you hope to convey to the outside world as a person of your identity, your taste, and different people rely on it to distinguish social classes.
China is still such a consumer-driven vanity society. The premise of the existence of symbolized consumption in a consumer society is human nature-I want to get the praise and admiration of those around me. When a social consensus is formed and it becomes a social rule, it will become a very vital mechanism. It will continuously renew itself and push the society forward.
Interface culture: In recent years, many people have compared China with Japan in the 1980s. The similarities between the two are in the mass production and consumption of material wealth. What do you think of this comparison? Can we use the history of Japanese society to predict China’s future?
Sun Xiaoxun: The situation is different. Daisho Kenichi has a book called “Low Desire Society”. Today, Japan’s senior citizens aged 65 and over make up 20% of the total population and have entered a low-incidence society. When Japanese consumption was booming, the proportion of elderly people was about 8%. Japan ’s bubble economy burst in the early 1990s. The reason why Japan was able to transition smoothly is because the Japanese have a sense of trust and social development is more robust than China, so they can withstand the impact of insufficient consumption. China’s low desire society is “my desire is actually quite high, but the reality is very skinny and I can’t do it.” The growth of China’s civil society is inadequate. Once consumption declines and economic problems occur, there is no shield to buffer, which will have a great impact on China’s entire society.
Interface culture: In your book, you also cited the concept of “low society” at the Miura exhibition, referring toAt present, the Chinese middle class is also showing a certain “downstream” trend. Is it possible to talk about this concept again in Chinese? To a certain extent, is “middle-class lower-liquidization” also a global trend?
Sun Xiaoxun: Yes, the global middle class is being degraded, but my interpretation is not the same as that of Miura. In my opinion, the downsizing is the relative decline in the proportion of income-the proportion of the total wealth of the middle class in the total wealth of society is decreasing, and at the same time the rich are richer.
But there is one thing that is different in China. Strictly speaking, whether the middle class is a “class” is a problem, because the class is not a simple addition of individuals. China’s middle class is just an economic group in the sense of pure income, more accurately it is the middle income group. How is China’s middle class defined? Some people say that there is a house and a car. If house prices cannot rise steadily, the total assets of the middle class will shrink and the proportion of debt will increase. This is a bad prospect for the middle class. The middle class is also a group of people deeply affected by consumer culture. They have this source of information and have this pursuit. People always want more self-identity after food and clothing. This means that your time and money will be invested in places that have nothing to do with production, which obviously does not help raise income.
The Chinese economy has entered the era of stock games. Therefore, I suggest that you get rid of the illusion of “middle class”, control the desire to consume, and the desire to increase income. You should invest money and save, and do not buy meaningless goods. When you have to spend money, you can think of every expense as an investment. The economy is cyclical, with four distinct seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter, but few can survive the winter. There are generally two points in time when a person wants to seize an opportunity to achieve freedom of wealth. One is the outlet of the technological revolution, and the other is the end of the debt cycle. Now we should think more about how to retain wealth, let the wealth appreciate steadily, avoid excessive consumption, and let ourselves survive the debt cycle. This is the practical significance of consumption history.
Only if the middle-class group of people are alive and truly stable, will this society be better in general. Because they are the backbone of society and the channel connecting the upper and lower levels, they can reflect the thoughts of the poor and the rich, and they are the striving for the convergence of resources, so this stratum is very important.
The consumer society will end, and the society after it will be another form
Interface culture: The epidemic will increase the downward pressure on China’s economy. Will this force China’s economic transformation?
Sun Xiaoxun: Since 2013, China ’s economic growth has experienced a significant decline, and this trend will not change. It may bottom out after a few years, but certainly the bottom is not now.
I think China needs to change its whole thinking. The consumer society was unhealthy from the beginning, and its premise was the rise of real estate. From 2008 to now, the world has been doing quantitative easing, but some countries have seized the opportunity to realize industrial transformation and upgrading. For example, India has done a good job in software development and outsourcing, although India has many problems of its own. As the leader of the quantitative easing trend, the United States has vigorously developed high technologies such as artificial intelligence in the past decade. At present, securities companies use artificial intelligence to view stocks. Many other industries have also invested in the application of artificial intelligence. Its underlying research and development began in 2008. Artificial intelligence has learned and evolved for so many years. By 2015 and 2016, at least in finance Field, the application of artificial intelligence is very common. The U.S. used the financial tsunami to realize technological updates during this period, and unknowingly realized industrial upgrading. This is worth studying in China.
Interface culture: In “The Ferocity of Shopping”, you proposed that from the late 1980s, the freedom of material choice is deeply bound to the national economic growth, and it has become a people’s vision of an ideal country. Will this vision continue to inspire Chinese people from now on?
Sun Xiaoying: Everyone hopes that there are many material choices that can satisfy their wishes. This is normal and will be a vision in the future. As long as the shape of the global consumer society is not over, this vision is not unique to the Chinese, but for all people worldwide. But apart from that, the Chinese may have more demands on other aspects, such as personal security, social stability and harmony, and a more humane social operation model, not just consumer demand. Human needs are multi-faceted. When your needs in one area have reached the extreme, you may look back at other areas. What is the significance of consumption when people are constantly pursuing things on the consumer side and find that even basic security of life and personal safety are problems? If the social infrastructure is insufficient, this consumption is unsustainable consumption, and this consumption mentality is distorted-I have nothing else to pursue except this, this is a malicious, retaliatory consumption.
In the future, we may really stop and reflect on what else can we do besides consumption? Can we give civil society more room to grow and make the society more hierarchical? On the basis of consumption, should people have faith and need some internal pursuit instead of basing everything on material, other people’s evaluation and simple pleasure? Because of the epidemic, can we have thisSuch reflections and a slight shift of attention to the relationship between people and social harmony, I think Chinese society will be more complete.
After the pneumonia epidemic began, many people stayed at home, but their relationship with their families has improved, and everyone has shared their hardships. There may be a lot of human life and death in the epidemic, and all kinds of lasting events. After these experiences, people may reflect on it, pay more attention to the feelings between people, and focus on human nature, values and beliefs. I think this is the most important regulating product in the consumer society. It can reconcile social contradictions and keep the society from going to the extreme of consumption. I think it should develop like this, it’s just a matter of degree and speed.
Interface culture: After reflecting on consumerism, what do you think consumers will be like in the future?
Sun Xiaoyu: I think China will be divided into different consumer groups in the future. People in some places still consume first and keep buying, but some big city residents who are more particular about the quality of life and have a higher level of knowledge will pursue something else. Just like many Japanese people now pursue a more concise lifestyle and live a more elegant and more “Buddha-like” life, they are not incapable of spending, but want to change a living method. Simple life and modest consumption will become popular in some of the most cutting-edge urban groups in the future. In fact, there are already some “little fresh” like this, not too much consumption, and pursue something different. This cultural phenomenon will occur, so the situation in China will be richer than in the past.
The shape of the whole society may also change in the future. Is it true that consumption is “more is better”, and is it still the only criterion for this? I find it difficult to say, maybe the whole human ideology will change afterwards. The consumer society is a social stage. It does not happen for no reason. Something that starts will definitely have an end point, and one day the consumer society will come to an end point. The later society is another form. As for what that pattern is, we can’t see it yet. The pollution of the consumer society to the environment and the meaningless consumption of materials are terrible, and one day this model will not continue.
When the world reaches this stage, human beings may think that pursuing money and consumption is not necessarily the best way. Maybe everyone will turn to pursuing other things, such as morals, knowledge and other personal inner things. This is not impossible, but now we are all talking about numbers. For example, it is a habit to watch GDP growth and watch the stock market trend. Before the consumer society, no one paid attention to the income of ordinary people. Social stability was maintained by religious things, and by the coordination of farming civilization itself, which was built on the cultural soil of the time. Consumer societyThis set has been overturned before, and the social mechanism of paying money and shopping dependence has been established. This kind of game rules will come to an end when it reaches a stage, but certainly not now. Maybe we haven’t seen it in our lives. It will take decades or even longer to make a complete change.
This article comes from WeChat public account: interface culture (ID: Booksandfun) , author: woods people