Since promoting localization in 2019, Tesla’s influence on the domestic capital market has increased day by day.
Editor’s note: This article comes from ” Finance “ new media, author: Tu Wei .
Tesla has been a bit sad and happy recently: On the one hand, it is a strong rebound in stock prices brought about by multiple positive overlays. On the other hand, the domestic version of the Model 3 was exploded and a “reduction event” aroused a lot of attention.
Tesla’s stock price opened sharply higher on Tuesday (March 2) after the stock price surged 11.32%. The intraday stock price rose nearly 9%. Previously, affected by the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic worldwide, U.S. stocks plummeted, and Tesla’s stock price has fallen for five days.
The delivery window of Model Y is approaching, which is one of the important reasons why Tesla’s stock price rebounded rapidly. According to foreign media reports, the first batch of Model Y models will be delivered as early as late March, and its parking lot at the Fremont plant in California has already stocked a large number of new Model Ys that have just been rolled out. In addition, in April this year, Tesla will announce the content of its independently developed power battery project, which also provides certain expectations for the rise of Tesla’s stock price.
Since the promotion of localization in 2019, Tesla’s influence on the domestic capital market has been increasing day by day, especially recently, with the changes in the information of Tesla’s independently developed battery projects, A-share related concept stocks have appeared several times Large fluctuations. A “Schrödinger-type” battery continues to stir the new energy sector.
Meanwhile, domestic Tesla has fallen into a “reduction incident”, and some delivered domestic Tesla Model 3s may have lower versions of self-driving hardware models instead of hardware models on the environmental information on-board list. . On March 3, Tesla responded on its official Weibo that this was mainly due to the supply chain affected by the epidemic, and it would provide related car owners with free replacement hardware services.
Tesla continues to benefit in spring, battery suspense stirs new energy sector
After the first delivery time of the new car has been changed, the Model Y released in March 2019 may become the model with the shortest delivery cycle for the brand. Foreign media reports that the first delivery date of Model Y has been advanced to March 15, 2020. Previously, the model was originally scheduled for delivery in the fall of 2020.
Tesla’s Model Y is positioned as a compact SUV, with an overseas version priced at $ 39-60,000. The official website information shows that the domestic Model Y includes two types: long battery life and Performance high performance. The official website booking prices are 488,000 yuan (RMB) and 535,000 yuan (RMB).
The early delivery of overseas versions means that the delivery date of domestic Model Y may also be significantly advanced. It is reported that the share ratio of domestic and overseas versions of parts reaches 75%, and it should not be difficult for domestic consumers to buy the car in 2020. “Finance” new media conducted an interview with Tesla about whether the domestic version of the Model Y will be shortened like the overseas version. As of press time, no relevant response has been received.
In addition to Model Y, Tesla also recently has another major project-independent research and development and production of power batteries.
On February 27th, electrek reported that the Tesla Power Battery Self-Production Plan “Roadrunner” was officially launched, and the production line is located in the Fremont Desert area of the United States. The day before the news was announced, Japan’s Panasonic announced that it would end its cooperation with the Tesla Super Factory 2 solar cell joint production in New York in May this year, and plans to withdraw completely before the end of September. Previously, Panasonic was the only lithium battery supplier for Tesla for many years.
On the same day that Panasonic announced that it would break up with Tesla, Ningde Times announced that it plans to issue non-public shares to no more than 35 specific objects and raise 20 billion yuan in monthly funds for power batteries and energy storage. Construction and R & D of battery projects. In January this year, Tesla announced that it would establish a partnership with Ningde Times, a battery supplier, but both parties did not disclose much about the procurement scale and battery type. The market generally believes that Ningde Times will supply lithium iron phosphate batteries for Tesla.
Signs of Tesla’s independent production of new energy vehicle power batteries start with the acquisition of supercapacitor manufacturer Maxwell. The dry electrode technology from Maxwell has enabled it to produce cheaper, higher energy density batteries. Tesla’s goal is to reduce the cost of lithium batteries per kilowatt-hour below the $ 100 mark. A report from a foreign professional energy agency shows that the average global price of lithium batteries for automobiles in 2019 was $ 156 per kilowatt-hour, down 13% from the previous year.
It is understood that during the upcoming “Battery Investor Day” event in April, Tesla will arrange to display the Model X and Model S with new batteries installed.
It is worth noting that as of now, Tesla has not announced the specific material composition of its self-developed batteries. Since recent times, Tesla ’s changes in battery technology “tongues” have allowed domestic Tesla related concepts. The stock’s stock price is on a “roller coaster.” In the secondary market, Tesla’s concept stocks went from the initial “cobalt and lithium fly” to “throw cobalt and throw away lithium”, and then to super capacitors quietly took over. Tesla’s every move affected the fate of related concept stocks Ups and downs.
Take the concept of cobalt ore stocks asFor example, on February 18th, Reuters reported that Tesla will use cobalt-free batteries for research and development. On February 19th, the Wind Cobalt Mine Index fell sharply by 4.55%, and many stocks that have risen in the previous period have fallen to their limit and have not yet reached See improvement.
In fact, Tesla ’s influence on A shares did not appear recently. Wind data shows that the Tesla Index has been on the rise since the second half of last year, and the cumulative increase of many stocks has remained above 100%.
After several rounds of fluctuations in the sector, the organization’s point of view began to become cautious. Guo Qian Securities Tan Qian’s team believes that Tesla battery technology is valued or has value in the secondary market, but there has not been any improvement in industrial fundamentals and technical breakthroughs in the short term. Huatai Securities’ Huang Bin team also said that if Tesla’s next-generation battery technology enters the commercialization stage, whether Tesla produces its own batteries also needs to consider the performance leadership and cost.
Ding Dao, an industry analyst, told Caijing New Media that the automotive industry chain is a product of an industrial cluster under the cooperation of multiple parties. We must develop together with a win-win attitude for the entire industry. do”. In addition, Tesla’s self-developed battery requires time, but also requires practical tests. There is a certain possibility of failure. Several other industry insiders said that currently the power of speech for the development of new energy vehicle power batteries is mainly controlled by several industry giants, and the capital hype also has its own logic. Can get long-term support.
Domestic Tesla encounters “reduction gate”, the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored
Compared to the wind and rain in the capital market, Tesla has attracted attention due to the issue of “reduction” in the localization process.
Recently, according to media reports, some domestic Model 3 owners reported that the vehicle controller code actually installed on the models they purchased does not match the environmental protection information with the models on the vehicle list. After inquiry, the environmental protection information sheet is provided. The model is Hardware 3.0 (HW3.0) hardware, while the actual installed model is Hardware 2.5 (HW2.5) hardware, which is a relatively backward hardware model for autonomous driving computers.
HW3.0 was released on Tesla Autonomous Driving Day 2019.The chip used is Tesla’s self-developed FSD chip, while the HW2.5 chip is Drive PX2 chip provided by chip supplier NVIDIA. In computing power, there is a large gap between the two, the former is about 21 times the latter. The most intuitive performance is that HW3.0 can identify traffic separation pier (ice cream cone), while HW2.5 does not have this ability.
In fact, although HW3.0 has more prominent autonomous driving capabilities, its cost is better than HW2.5 hardware control. Thanks to the production of its core components in China and independent research and development, its cost is about 20% less.
March 3, needleRegarding the issue of reduction of car owners, Tesla responded publicly on Weibo that the Shanghai Super Factory resumed work and production on February 10. During the period based on the supply chain conditions, some of the standard battery life upgrade model 3 installed hardware is HW2.5.
(Screenshot of Teras Weibo announcement)
In addition, Tesla also stated that it will provide free replacement of HW3.0 for owners of controllers with HW2.5 Chinese-manufactured upgraded version 3 of the controller hardware as planned. Without the optional FSD function, there is basically no difference between the two versions of the hardware in terms of driving experience and safety in use.
FSD function, namely fully autonomous driving capability. After Tesla entered China, the Autopilot function was adjusted. The new car is only equipped with the basic driver assistance function at the L2 level. Its official website information shows that if it is required to have automatic lane change, automatic assisted navigation driving, intelligent calling, etc FSD function, you need to pay another 56,000 yuan to purchase.
A person in relevant legal circles told Caijing New Media that if it is confirmed that Tesla did unilaterally change the parts and components of the delivered vehicle without notifying consumers in advance, it is a breach of contract.
It can be seen from the Tesla announcement that an important reason for the emergence of the “reduction gate” is the impact of the epidemic, but the impact of the epidemic on Tesla is much more than that. Tesla’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last month mentioned for the first time the risk factor of “health epidemics”, and the new coronavirus epidemic could have a significant adverse impact on the company’s business.
Tesla said that it is unclear whether the global supply chain, especially the auto parts supply chain, will be affected and how it will be affected if the epidemic continues for a period of time. . “Tesla may experience costs or delays related to such events that we have no control over, which may have a significant adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
However, some organizations have seen a turnaround from the crisis. JP Morgan analysts said investors will be able to buy Tesla stock at a bargain price in the ongoing market turmoil associated with the new crown pneumonia epidemic. For Tesla, JPMorgan Chase gave a target price of $ 1060, which is also one of the highest target stock prices given to Tesla by Wall Street analysts. As of this TuesdayAt the close, Tesla’s latest share price was $ 745.51 per share.