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Here, there is a big outbreak of new crowns worldwide. Most of the Hollywood movies originally scheduled to be released from March to May have been delayed. Hundreds of movies and American dramas that are currently in the shooting stage have also fallen into a shutdown state, and the global film industry has fallen into an unprecedented frozen state.

In mainland China, where the virus first spread, the outbreak has been effectively controlled. Continue to develop in accordance with the current good situation. It is believed that the cinemas in most provinces and cities will officially enter the resumption industry before the cinemas officially stop working for three months.

Since late February, both national film distribution and projection associations and many provincial and municipal film associations have issued relevant guidance documents such as Preparation for Return to Work and Guidelines for Return to Work. It can be said that in terms of internal conditions, many studios are fully prepared.

It is true that rents and salaries of employees are paid day by day, and there is no date for resumption of work. In addition to normal maintenance of the projection equipment, it is also a waste to do more sanitation and disinfection in advance at this stage.

Therefore, it is obviously more important to make the first batch of films first than to issue guidelines for resumption of epidemic prevention and standardize the sanitation and projection specifications of the movie studio.

Classic rescreening is responsible for opening the road

Since the previous year, the re-screening of classic films has become a force to be reckoned with in the cinema market.

At the end of 2018, the 30th anniversary of “My Neighbor Totoro” re-screened at the box office and achieved 172 million, making it the 7th best score in the animated film of 2018; Last June, Spirited Away, was an astonishing 486 million box office The winner of the 2019 import film awards and the second best-selling box office of imported animation; November ’s “Marine Pianist” ’s box office of 143 million in the mainland, and“ Beautiful Life ”at the beginning of this year ’s box office of 60 million, all exceeded market expectations.

It can also be seen from the statistical list that from 2011 to the present 9 years, the re-release box office of several key films has accumulated more than 2.6 billion box office. Considering the extremely low cost of re-screening movies, It does have a high market value.

On March 13th, the M1905 official blog released a news saying that China Film Coordination has coordinated a film party and organized classic film exhibitions at home and abroad, including “The Price of Madness”, “The Tomb of the Thief Princess” and other late 1980s. Classic movies have been numbered in 2020, which also means that these re-screening movies may become a major help in the recovery period of the film market.

However, a few hours after the Weibo post, the original author and later reposted content from Sina Movies, Sina Entertainment and other channels have deleted the content. Judging from the current information of Sir, it is true that the re-screening of Chinese and foreign classic films will indeed be an important part of the theater resumption stage, but the specific film list may still be adjusted.

A few months ago, re-screening of classic films such as “Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone” was also on the agenda. Compared with new films, classic film re-screening eliminates the complicated process of resubmission and review, on the other hand, the cost of publicity of the film is also lower, and even some films can be completely “naked” into the market, which greatly reduces Regaining pressure.

The most important thing is that for domestic classic films such as China Film and other state-owned film companies that enjoy copyright, the relevant state departments can also adjust the split ratio of normal films, reducing the split ratio to 15% or even less than 10%, so as to resume work. Early theater support. Of course, the implementation of this policy also needs to increase the normative restrictions on the studios, so as not to let the theft of box office floods.

Limited volume of imported tablets

Looking back at the movie market in the Mainland in the past two months, because of the pneumonia epidemic that caused the withdrawal of the movie, in addition to the Chinese New Year’s document on January 25, Qixiong, the original filming of several award-winning season films in February also attracted much attention.

Different from the previous 2-3 award season films released in February-March, China Capital, which is getting closer and closer to the Oscars, continues to make efforts this year. A total of 5 films were originally planned to be introduced after the award season .

But it is undeniable that both the “Jojo’s Whimsical World”, “Little Lady” and “Marriage Life” that have been finalized, or “1917” “A Good Day in the Neighborhood” that have not been finalized before have already been completed. Missing the golden release period, the current high-definition resources have been fully released. Except for “1917”, which has the advantages of a large screen, it is difficult for other films to achieve 100 million + box office results.

As for other Hollywood commercial genres released in February-February this year, the overall word-of-mouth performance is relatively average, and it is difficult to obtain more than 200 million films after the release. From this point of view, although there are currently 13 imported warehouse tablets under the backlog, we predict that the total box office performance will not exceed 1 billion, and its contribution to the recovery of the mainland film market in April and May may be within 30%. .

Similarly, with the full range of withdrawals from “Quiet Land 2” on March 20 to “Fastness and Passion 9” on May 22, if North America is scheduled to “Black Widow” on May 1 File, then before the arrival of June, there will be no new Hollywood blockbuster introduction.

Obviously, in addition to classic re-screening movies and imported warehouse films, the mainland movie market in the early stage of the resumption of labor still needs domestic film as a boost.

Domestic films hold the flag

It is undeniable that the first batch of films released after the epidemic is bound to be greatly discounted at the box office. On the one hand, in the initial stage of the market recovery, the enthusiasm of the audience will not be too high to form the so-called retaliatory viewing, and the box office market will continue to slump for a whileAt this time, the results of films released at this stage will not be too high, and given the slightly different epidemic lifting of bans in different provinces, the first batch of films released will not be truly “nationally released.” On the other hand, from the lifting of the epidemic to the fixed file and then to the public release, the release period for the first batch of released films may even be less than one week, which also poses greater challenges to the publishers of the films.

So who will take over the banner after the re-opening and warehouse films have “opened the ice”? From the analysis of the above film list, no matter whether it is a re-screened film or an imported film, there are currently no 500 million + or even 200 million + box office seed players. Therefore, the task of saving the 51st-tier market seems to fall on the shoulders of domestic films. .

The May 1st gear has always been the most special one in the small holiday schedule.

Because of May Day’s seven-day long vacation before the holiday reform, May Day is also the most important date for many filmmakers and audiences. 2013 “To Youth”, 2014 “You at the Same Table”, 2015 “How to Sing and Sing”, “Beijing Meets Seattle 2” in 2016, “Bomb Demolition Expert” in 2017, and “Later Us” in 2018 They are all heavyweight works in the May 1st gear.

In addition, the annual Marvel blockbuster movie in Hollywood summer is generally released during May Day. From 2012 to 2019, “Avengers”, “Iron Man 3”, “The Amazing Spider-Man 2″, ” Avengers 2 “Captain America 3” “Guardians of the Galaxy 2” “Avengers 3” “Avengers 4” are all introduced to the mainland at the same time or quasi-synchronously, but with the indetermination of “Black Widow” in 2020, the Mainland In terms of schedule, Hollywood blockbusters will probably miss May Day for the first time.

Therefore, strong domestic films are also the key to helping the mainland film market prepare for a complete recovery. Some Chinese New Year films that are withdrawn are also expected to return to the theaters during this period. There is a five-day holiday, which can fully support the release of 1 billion + million movies and 3-4 500 million + movies. If there are two live-action movies withdrawn during the Spring Festival, two of them may also be a good choice.

For movies that have been mass-proclaimed, the heat will gradually dissipate over time, which is why they have encountered force majeure films such as “Catch Monsters” and “Fanghua”. Both re-released smoothly in half a year and achieved good box office results. The same is true for the key films of the Spring Festival this year.

There is only one and a half months away from May. Although the filmmaker may still not be able to officially declare the files within March months, it is essential to do the file fixing, deployment planning and formal submission for review. jobs. If you wait until the market really lifts the ban before you start thinking about whether you should set a file for May, you may have been seized by other videos. Don’t be afraid to be the first person to eat crabs.

Overall, the impact of the current epidemic on the global film market is lagging behind the mainland by about 40-50day. Regarding how to gradually unfreeze the market that has been completely zero for more than 2 months and return to normal, no one has copied the work. The movie bureau, film producers and theaters also need to work together instead of pushing each other, so that the movie market can regain its power. New year.