Photo by Luis Quintero on Unsplash, this article is from WeChat public account: Xiao Ma Song (ID: xiaomasong999) < / a> , author: pony Song (founder strategic marketing consulting, strategic marketing consultant to get APP)
SARS in 2003 was particularly frightening at that time. To put it bluntly, it was afraid of death, because SARS had a particularly high mortality rate, and there were terrible sequelae even if cured, but SARS was not highly contagious.
Nokia virus is another case, with low mortality but extremely infectiousness. SARS is not good for sick individuals, but it is good for the whole; the new crown is relatively less scary for the sick individuals, but it has great lethality to society as a whole.
I thought the new crown might be similar to SARS, but at present, the impact of the new crown on the entire world is much higher than SARS.
Let me talk about some recent thoughts.
1. If it is February, even the most pessimistic expectation is better than the most optimistic expectation now. China has achieved “victory”, but it feels uncontrollable overseas, so as long as there is global exchange, the epidemic will be difficult to eliminate. Then don’t expect too much business activity this year to return to normal, even if it is normal at home and overseas, it is difficult for economic activity to return to normal in the short term.
This is also Zhang Wenhong’s judgment. He believes that the end of the epidemic this summer is basically impossible, and it is likely to face the risk of re-epidemic in the coming year, unless a specific medicine or vaccine is developed.
2. Due to the reduction of going out, parties, and dinners, consumers will reduce spending in many ways, and the corresponding business income will be reduced. A large number of non-income businesses will reduce employee income and even lose their jobs. In response, unemployment will lead to further reductions in consumption. This year may be a difficult year for many businesses and individuals.
Great PlagueThe economic adjustment brought by the epidemic is the plague of enterprises. Poorly-established companies will die silently and bring a large number of unemployed. At the same time, we will see a sociological choice and survival of the fittest.
Warren Buffett still stands still, because he insists on long-term value, he can’t die anyway, the book loss is not a loss, so wait for a few years. If you make an investment, you must not only have the determination and judgment, but also the ability to make continuous off-market money. In this way, you can also provide funds when you lose money on the market. All-in betting is a bad strategy at any time.
The same is true for enterprises. Entering a business may be fatal without considering risks, and you may miss good opportunities if you consider too much risk. This is the different ways of living and different ways of death. It depends on what you value, and if you lose it, you are willing to bear it. That adventure is right.
3. Is the consulting industry better? Definitely not good. The consulting company is famous for its many business trips. The advertising industry is not much better. Party A has no money. How can Party B have money to collect? In addition, exhibitions, road shows, and other activities have basically stopped, and this type of company has nothing to do. Outdoor advertising is expected to be greatly affected, and it may not be easy for everyone.
Are our business affected? There are impacts. One is that the consultant’s business cannot travel, and there is no way to charge it. The other is that several customers who originally wanted to sign a contract or discuss cooperation have cancelled their trips. It is estimated that the situation will change and many will not sign again.
So what? A simple way is to wait, As long as it is affordable, waiting is also a strategy . If it’s okay, learn from everyone, improve yourself, let yourself die, and wait for the opportunity to grow up.
During the great disaster, it was people’s physical fitness, and the economic cold winter was the corporate physical fitness. Maybe we can’t stick to the last one, but we may last longer than most companies.
4. Of course, people always consume, such as games, and can play without going out; for example, eating and drinking Lazar, they must do without going out, or even more; such as education, children cannot play at home every day, etc. .
So some companies are in heaven, not because they are strong, but because they have good luck, such as convenience foods and fast foods, which have been selling crazy these months; we have a customer called Goldsmith, which is an enterprise in the Xiaomi ecological chain. As a walking machine and a treadmill, the production could not be produced at all, and the orders soared. The company that had previously done online teaching and online conferences is a year of great development.
Some companies are making rapid progress. For example, people immediately learn to broadcast online; some people change immediately.The menus and products are suitable for take-out, even if they are not as good as those that are lucky, and can at least recover some losses; some companies immediately change their sales channels and sell from communities, WeChat, live broadcast and other channels.
Of course, there are those who make quick money by investing in masks. It is said that they have become banknote printing machines.
Some companies are really helpless, but some companies can obtain some orders and income by changing their business models, depending on whether you will quickly adapt and change at this time.
5. Some companies were unwilling to participate in new channels and did n’t want to learn. That ’s not to the point of death. But today, if you do n’t do it, you have to learn it too. Otherwise, you can only wait for death, you take care of it. Competition on the Internet channel may be intensified, because a large number of companies waiting to be fed in have rushed in. In the past, it was a question of making more money and earning less. Now it is a question of who is dying and who is living.
In the past, I always said that I was not suitable for live broadcast, not for video, and sometimes I just found myself a lazy reason. My middle-aged uncle who did n’t have any face value did not go to test short videos Well, Douyin also has more than 200,000 fans. Whether it works or not, let’s talk about it first, even if we are going to die, we have to struggle.
6. Dinosaurs once ruled the earth. Why would such a powerful creature become extinct? Because of the huge environmental changes, an external force that is a hundred times stronger than it will happen, then it will be short of skill. At this time, those creatures with more flexible survival strategies can continue. For example, creatures such as water bears can withstand 150 high temperatures and 200 degrees below zero. They can live for decades without eating or drinking. They are not powerful, but they can survive.
Enterprises are the same. Some companies are very powerful, but their living conditions are very single, and the normal operation of the society is no problem. They are giants. But when a huge variable appears, some companies will collapse, such as aviation and tourism companies this year, they are dinosaurs.
7, But you can’t underestimate people’s creativity and adaptability. The longer the time, the more countermeasures people will come up with . This is the second demand law in economics, so there is almost no real rigid demand. As long as enough time is given, people can find a good enough alternative.
So even from now on we will all be living in the community, people will have a way to carry out business activities. Moreover, we also have a developed express delivery and takeaway system. We have the most advanced and popular non-cash payment method in the world. This is China’s huge advantage in this epidemic.
I see factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Employees are separated from each other with plastic wrap, which is the specific response we come up with.
8. If there is sufficient cash reserves, this time is actually the time to search for price depressions.
What’s in the depression? Strategic resources, supply chain resources, high-quality talent, stocks of high-quality companies, houses, etc. From another perspective, this is indeed a “good opportunity.”
During the extraordinary period, we have overcome the difficulties and wished everyone a “live.”
This article is from WeChat public account: Xiao Ma Song (ID: xiaomasong999) , author: pony Song (founder strategic marketing consulting, strategic marketing consultant to get APP)