Is it too optimistic?
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “New Smart Car” (ID: AI- Drive) , author electric plaster. Original title “Swiss Investment Bank Predicts: Volkswagen Will Be the First Manufacturer to Profit by Selling Electric Vehicles”
Xinzhijiatuo has always been a tedious job of selling electric cars without government subsidies. After a bit of research, you will also find that Tesla’s occasional profitability is also due to the sale of carbon credits.
Last week, GM, which brought in a new electric platform and $ 20 billion in capital, set a flag that its electric cars must be profitable, but the US giant did not give a specific timeline. However, the latest report from UBS, the Swiss investment bank, states that in 2022 Volkswagen will be the first company in the world to make a profit by selling pure trams.
UBS predicts that by 2025, pure electric cars and SUVs will account for 15% of global sales. Tesla’s stand-alone position will be affected by major manufacturers, especially Volkswagen.
UBS forecasts are also very popular with investors. You need to know that Volkswagen is more arrogant than GM, and they will spend $ 36 billion on their own electric family by 2024.
It should be noted that UBS’s forecast is still more negative than that of the public, but the latter believes that pure electric vehicles will account for more than 25% of its global sales in 2025. However, compared with Morgan Stanley, UBS’s forecast is already very bold. The former believes that pure electric vehicle sales will account for up to 11% of global car sales in 2025, and most of the industry forecast numbers fall on this point.
For example, market research company IHS Markit believes that by 2025, pure electric vehicles will be able to share 14% of the cake in the European market, but its global share will be much lower.
The UBS report is not optimistic about the future of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), and believes that its share will shrink to a poor one by 2025 1.4%. After all, this type of vehicle has a small battery, with a battery life of only about 30 miles. Once the battery is exhausted, the internal combustion engine will drag a heavy battery. In the European market, this small battery will also make it difficult for vehicles to pass increasingly stringent European emissions regulations.
In the report, UBS also pointed out that their survey shows that Tesla is still the most popular electric vehicle brand among users, and is the first choice for 36% of potential electric vehicle users, while Model Y and Cybertruck are Tesla. Pull the Dinghai Shenpin to consolidate its leading position. However, the situation of this Tesla family may change soon.
“The main reason why users choose Tesla is because brands like Audi, BMW, or Mercedes-Benz do not have good products now, but we will have a good show in 2021,” UBS wrote in the report. During the Geneva Motor Show, BMW released the i4 pure electric concept car, and Audi and Mercedes are also making big moves.
UBS also pointed out that investors are cautious about electric vehicles, because they not only burn money in the future, the demand is not stable enough, and the up-front cost will lower the profit margin. However, Volkswagen has won pole position in this competition. Their ID.3 models for the mass market will be officially launched this summer, while the ID.4 SUV model will be launched next year.
Of course, there are also reports that ID.3’s mass production has encountered many problems, such as large-scale software problems. However, UBS still believes that ID.3 can become a new source of profit for the public.
“To stand out in the electric vehicle market, not only must it have a good range (280-310 miles), but it must also bring the price to the same level as a gasoline-powered vehicle. Tesla is so successful. In our view In the future, Volkswagen will become the next manufacturer to produce explosive electric vehicles, and their manufacturing capabilities need not be doubted. More importantly, Volkswagen will be the first to truly make money in the electric vehicle market with its own products. After all, not only are the high-end brands not large in scale, they will not be able to catch up with Tesla technically in the short term, so this task has to be undertaken by the public. “UBS wrote in the report.