This article is from WeChat public account: I am a scientist iScientist ( ID: IamaScientist) , author: Ren Chao (Associate Professor, School of architecture, University of Hong Kong research areas for the spatial planning of urban climate, ecologically sustainable environmental design, IPCC first Contributing authors of the six reports), the original title: “Excessive Rain Causes 100 Million Locusts to Rage, Can Drought Reduce the Disaster? 》, Edited by Yuki, head picture from: IC photo

Mighty Army of Locusts

Just beginning in 2020, there are two major events that are enough to put an entire country in danger, one is the “new coronavirus epidemic” and the other is “desert locust invasion.” Because of the menacing desert locust army in Somalia, Africa announced a “national emergency” on February 2 (1) .

The sky of locusts | fao.org

Desert locusts are known as one of the most dangerous migratory pests in the world for their rapid migration and reproduction capabilities. According to estimates,There are about 40 million locusts per square kilometer, and they can eat nearly 35,000 rations in one day. (2) . In addition, they have a very strong ability to reproduce. Each breeding generation increases the population by 20 times. Each generation can survive for three months and can fly up to 150 kilometers in the wind every day. The army of locusts that started in East Africa has already flown across the Red Sea into Europe and Asia, and Pakistan and India have also been severely affected. (3)

The suitable living environment and conditions are the reasons for this locust army. In 2019, climate change will cause the Indian Ocean to warm up. A few degrees of warming will affect cyclone activity and bring rare rainfall to Africa. The continuous rainfall for several months caused flooding and high temperatures, which not only provided a soft and soft soil environment for desert locusts to lay eggs, but at the same time rain irrigation promoted the growth of vegetation and provided the locusts with the food they needed. The surge has created the ravages of hundreds of billions of locusts today (4).

Desert Grasshopper Larva | news.un.org


What happens in the face of drought?

If rainfall has created an army of locusts, then drought probably won’t bring insects, right? In fact, drought may not be a good thing for locusts, but it will allow another insect, mosquito, to rise. Whenever the climate of a subtropical country becomes dry, it is the time for mosquito breeding. (5) .

Because of continued drought, vegetation cover will decrease, The surface soil gradually exposed. Once rainfall occurs, it is easy to form water and soil loss, and the creeks and rivers that flooded will eventually form countless small puddles or even dead pools. These puddles lack fish, and without natural enemies, mosquitoes can naturally breed in large numbers without any fear, and then diseases caused by mosquito bites may erupt, such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, etc. (5) .

Take malaria as an example, it has played an important role in the history of human replacement. It is not as fast as other plague diseases, but it will slowly torture infected people and drain their last strength. Many environmental historians nowadays consider malaria to be one of the important factors leading to the extinction of Greece and Rome. (Although malaria was still an unknown disease at the time) .

For example, Alexander the Great, who was invincible, but died suddenly under the age of 33. One of the speculations about his death was malaria. This is because he died of high fever, only ten days later. He was in Babylon City at the time of his death, and it was June, when the local malaria season was high.

Alexander the Great Sculpture | Wikimedia Commons

If you look at the history of Europeans invading Africa, you will find that before the large number of cheap quinine sales, the “meeting gifts” Africa gave to the invaders were tropical diseases, including dengue fever, yellow fever, black urine, and other Intestinal parasites. In the early 19th century, Belgians enthusiastically developed the Congo, but only seven percent of them can stay for three years. Most people will die from malaria or other diseases. “Remarks”> (5) .

Even today, according to the World Health Organization, one child dies of malaria every two minutes.It is worrying that malaria cases in some countries have been increasing in recent years. (6) .

Climate change poses health risks

From a statistical point of view, climate change may fluctuate a little, but the chain reaction and impact behind it must not be underestimated. A temperature increase of only one degree may cause 300,000 people in the world. (7) . A report from the World Health Organization (WHO) has assessed the health impacts and impacts of climate change in detail. There are two main types:

1. The direct impacts are mainly environmental pressures such as high-temperature heat waves, pollution, and floods;

2. Indirect effects are that global warming may reduce living standards, expand the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria, and bring health problems such as malnutrition and worsening diarrhea. (8) . The greatest impact on climate change is in people in low-income or underdeveloped countries and regions, because medical facilities and health levels are lower, and health and disease risks are naturally higher.

Seeing these report numbers reminds me of a lecture by the MIT meteorologist Lorentz on the “butterfly effect” at the American Academy for Scientific Development in 1972, “When a Brazilian butterfly flaps its wings, There is a tornado in Texas. “Now, the climate change we face is like the flapping wings of a little butterfly. Even with the fastest computer, it may be difficult to accurately predict the possible consequences.

So climate change cannot be underestimated. Maybe it is that little fluctuation that will cause an immeasurable disaster someday in the future.

References:

(1) UN, Desert locusts start to breed in Horn of Africa is worrying, UN News, January 29, 2020, https: // news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1050042

(2) Peng Lifang, City of the Future: Locusts Coming Insect Control? Ming Pao, Supplement, January 29, 2020

(3) Desert locust: Life cycle. Locust Handbook. Humanity Development Library. [2020-02-29].

(4) Sun Linong, Somalia declared a state of emergency after being attacked by desert locusts in East African countries, Europa News Agency, Sina.com, February 4, 2020

(5) Huntington, E. Climate Change and History, Di John, Wang Xiaoran (Eds.) History of Climate Change, 2014: Beijing: Jincheng Publishing House

(6) World Health Organization, facts about malaria, June 28, 2019, https://www.who.int/en/news-room/facts- in-pictures / detail / malaria

(7) Stern, N. Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, 2006, UK

(8) McMichael, A.J., et al., (eds.) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, 2003


This article is from WeChat public account: I am a scientist iScientist (ID: IamaScientist ), author: Ren Chao (Associate Professor, School of architecture, University of Hong Kong research areas for urban climate spatial planning, environmental design of sustainable ecological, IPCC Contributing author of the sixth report), the original title: “Can Excessive Rain Cause 100 Million Locusts to Rise, Can Drought Reduce the Insect Disaster?”