Thanks to the support of a series of credit policies, the scale of new RMB loans and social financing, both of which were less than 1 trillion yuan in February, is expected to rebound in March.
Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, had previously spoiled at a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council: in the first quarter of this year, loans for the banking industry increased by 70,000 RMB 100 million, a year-on-year increase of RMB 1.18 trillion, which strongly supports the resumption of production and production of enterprises.
“According to the January-February loan increment of 4.25 trillion, the March loan increment may reach 2.8 trillion, which is significantly higher than last March ’s increment and Market expectations. Considering that there are some differences between the CBRC caliber and the central bank ’s caliber, the loans of the central bank ’s caliber may also exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in March. Relatively fast lending has supported the loan data, while loan lending by small and medium-sized banks is relatively weak. Real estate transactions have begun to pick up, and outstanding mortgage loans for January-February were able to complete the lending in March, and residential mortgage loans will be significantly improved.
The Bank of Communications Finance Research Center predicts that the financial data for March will still largely depend on the progress of the company ’s production capacity recovery. Although the recovery of enterprise production capacity has not yet reached 100%, however, with the cooperation of fiscal and monetary policies, the financing needs of enterprises in March will show a marked improvement over February. In addition, although the LPR did not fall further in March, the interest rate cuts abroad are still on the horizon, and the expectation of future interest rate cuts in the country is still strong. The real estate market affected by the prevention and control of the epidemic is also gradually repairing. According to a comprehensive estimate, the demand for credit financing in the first quarter will be around 6.4 trillion, and the credit supply in March may be around 2 trillion, with the credit growth rate maintained at 12.1%.
With the recovery of credit, coupled with the support of local debt, the scale of new social financing is also expected to rebound sharply in March. In February, the scale of social financing increased by 855.4 billion yuan.
Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities, expects that after a sharp contraction in February, the size of shadow credit may also rebound slightly in March, and the net issuance of corporate bonds will rise sharply At the same time, the net issuance of local government bonds and treasury bonds also reached about 600 billion yuan. Overall, the scale of new social financing in March was 3.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Huatai Securities expects that credit, government bonds, and corporate bonds will all have higher increments, and non-standard aspects of trust issuance will remain low in March, and trust loans will continue to maintain negative growth, while Bill acceptance was active in March, month-on-month and year-on-yearBoth are expected to grow substantially. Overall, social financing increased by 4.4 trillion yuan in March, and the stock growth rate was 11.2%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous value.
At the same time, the market expects that the growth rate of M2, which represents generalized liquidity, will continue to rise.
Guotai Junan believes that overall liquidity will be further loosened in March, coupled with the recovery of financing needs for credit and bonds, and currency derivation has also recovered, but the base in the same period of 2019 is not low. The growth rate of M2 may increase slightly to 9.1%.