On April 14, A-shares rebounded strongly, the Shanghai index returned to above the 2800 point mark, and the GEM index soared 3.24%. Has the market been out of the bottom range?
As a recent firm optimist in the market, Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of Anxin Securities, made it clear that the A-shares are on the right and there is no need to wait any longer.
Chen Guo believes that the market has recently unanimously expected to say goodbye to panic, but is still cautious and believes that the opportunity needs to be waited for. However, he believes that the biggest and most certain reality facing the current market is that the United States, Europe, Japan and the United States have clearly stated that they will continue to maintain zero interest rates for a period of time. Regardless of whether China lowers interest rates or lowers standards, global liquidity has become widespread. If China does not cut interest rates, foreign capital arbitrage will be even more violent, and foreign capital will be even more violent when buying Chinese assets. It is inevitable that the rise in water will increase. In the end, it will also be inevitable for Chinese institutions and residents to allocate assets to A shares.
He said: “According to the fact, go to its name. Many friends and I discuss how to stimulate behind the policy. Let ’s take a look at the current risk-free interest rate and the current balance of treasure. Now, M2, social financing, credit, so-called letting go of water, not stimulating, may just be a term and a concept, is it really that important? To stabilize employment, I do n’t think the domestic fiscal policy needs market worries. There are friends and me Discuss, will the economy recover in a U-shape or V-shape? In fact, this is a macroeconomic issue. Saying this is not necessarily a question of asset prices. On the other hand, no matter how liquidity drives the economy into U, V, W, L, liquidity may promote asset prices.
In this global liquidity feast, the difference between China and overseas is that the fundamentals are the best and the first to rise. I am sure that the marginal improvement will start now, and the policy is only to increase the marginal improvement. Foreign capital is eager to swarm in. Why, this time, we must still give up the bottom to foreign capital, or must we keep the high to ourselves? br>
Chen Guo clearly stated that the current best choice is to no longer wait for policies or overseas, just to buy firmly when the economy is down and market sentiment is down, now the market is the most critical It is a position, it should be heavy, not short and low. Then A-shares are the issue of overall valuation improvement, and then A-shares are the issue of rising first and then rising.
In a recent research report by Chen Guo, he pointed out that the essential contradiction at this stage of the A-share market is the revision of earnings expectations and the expansion of valuation, which is stronger .
According to the research report, domestic demand in the first quarter is in the stage of lockout, which has formed an economic bottom, and the correspondingThe quarterly report on the profitability of listed companies is also being digested. From a series of macro-leading indicators and meso high-frequency data, China’s economic fundamentals are improving on a chain basis. The market believes that there is extremely high uncertainty in the short term overseas. What we have seen is extremely high certainty: Humans will learn and adjust and progress, no matter how long the new crown will exist, the trend of the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is four words: marginal improvement.
Sentiment is accompanied by the rapid release of overseas risks during the epidemic period, the most panic time has passed, corresponding to the orderly increase of domestic policies, economic data presents marginal improvement, risk preference The gradual repair from a low level corresponds to the repair and expansion trend of valuation.
From the market level, the turnover rate of the main index has stabilized, the profit-making effect has gradually recovered, and the market as a whole shows signs of recovery. Although the short-term market may still be repeated, in the medium term, A-shares will show a volatile upward trend. In the short-term structure, we can focus on domestic consumption, new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure, and focus on high-quality companies that exceed expectations in the first quarter report.
It is worth mentioning that on March 19, the Shanghai stock index fell to 2646.80 points, the lowest level in the past year. At that time, Chen Guo judged this It will be the bottom of the market, when his optimism was not common among analysts. Since then, the A-share market has started a round of slow rebound. So far, the Shanghai Composite Index has recovered 2700 points and 2800 points successively.