On April 16, Bain & Company’s 2020 China private equity market report press conference was held online.

Bain believes that affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the number and amount of transactions in the first half of 2020 will drop significantly compared with the same period in 2019, but the new coronary pneumonia After the epidemic, the private equity market in China was relatively optimistic in the second half of 2020. With the gradual recovery of delayed transactions in the first half of the year, more and more companies are generating financing needs due to cash flow pressure, and the market will usher in a rebound.

At the press conference, Bain ’s global partners Li Chenghuan and Zhou Hao also stated that in industries where short-term demand was suppressed due to the epidemic, retaliatory consumption will Will appear.


Due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the market will continue to shrink in the first half of 2020

According to the “China Private Equity in 2020” released by Bain & Company “Market Report”, due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, in the first quarter of 2020, China’s private equity market continued to shrink. The transaction amount and volume in this quarter decreased by 55% and 7% compared with the same period in 2019. As the relevant isolation measures may continue at least until the end of April, the impact of market shrinkage will continue into the second quarter, as will the overall damage to travel and work efficiency.

Based on the above effects, Bain expects that the number and amount of transactions in the first half of 2020 will be significantly reduced compared with the same period in 2019, and the number of transactions in the whole year of 2020 Compared with the already low 2019, it will drop by about 1-5%, and the transaction amount will drop by about 15% -25%.

“In the past nine years, China ’s private equity market has risen rapidly and is one of the markets in the Asia-Pacific region that has achieved great success. But now, investors are aware that the market is undergoing oscillations Shock, we observed a similar situation when SARS broke out that year. “Said Li Chenghuan, global partner and co-author of the report at Bain.


After the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the market will usher in the second half of 2020 Express optimism.

Li Chenghuan said: “After the SARS epidemic, investThe activity began to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2003, especially the number of transactions in industries that were heavily affected by epidemic prevention and isolation increased significantly. Therefore, we have reason to believe that with the end of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, there will still be various strategic opportunities in the future market. ”

Bain believes that China ’s private equity market is relatively optimistic in the second half of 2020, and the rebound is driven by the rising demand for financing in the most affected industries, coupled with Delayed transactions and new transactions overlap.

The Bain report stated that the market situation in the second half of 2020 was relatively optimistic, with the gradual recovery of delayed transactions in the first half of the year, more and more Many companies have raised financing needs due to cash flow pressures, and the market will usher in a rebound.

“Although the Chinese market is adversely affected, from the current trend, all walks of life After successive recovery, severe decline in economic activity will not last long. Zhou Hao, Bain’s global partner and co-author of the report, said: “Investors should continue to focus on how to successfully break through the outbreak. Although current macroeconomic challenges continue to hit the market, the Chinese market will continue to grow against the trend. ”


Industries with suppressed short-term demand will usher in retaliatory consumption

Based on different trends in consumer behavior under the epidemic, Bain summarized six Types and representative industries:

The first category: short-term damage, long-term development hindered, such as some traditional retailers.

Second category: short-term damage, recovering as the overall economy stabilizes, such as catering services, express delivery, logistics, transportation, hotels and tourism, traditional retail and commercial estate.

The third category: short-term demand is suppressed, and retaliatory consumption will be ushered in in the future, promoting a rebound, such as: clothing and beauty, alcoholic beverages, household appliances.

The fourth category: short-term demand surges and long-term decline, such as: personal computers and monitors.

The fifth category: short-term demand surges and returns to pre-epidemic levels in the long term, such as: grocery and daily necessities, packaged food.

The sixth category: short-term profit, investors will closely track the structural changes that may occur in specific vertical industries,Such as: digital health care, Internet insurance, online entertainment, e-commerce and remote communication tools.

Li Chenghuan said that the overall Chinese consumer sector has already had a clear response to the situation since March, and the consumption of some non-essential goods has been suppressed, but there are also A rebound in retaliatory consumption appears, such as the beauty industry.

“With everyone ’s resumption of work, there was some obvious recovery in online sales in March. In consumer research, we see that everyone ’s resumption of work The rate is above 75%, the passenger flow in some core business districts has also recovered about 70%, and public transportation, etc. have already had some more obvious recovery. “Li Chenghuan said,” This type of consumption mentioned in the third category comes from In the long run, there may be a certain rebound or retaliatory consumption in the short term, and the medium and long term will tend to stabilize or have a certain improvement. “

Zhou Hao said that at present The shadow of the epidemic has not passed yet. It is normal to have a retaliatory consumption after the policy is liberalized, but it will stabilize later. “At least in the food and beverage industry that we have seen, there are many restaurants in the same restaurant compared with last year, which only reached about 80% of last year. A large part of it is still through takeout. The overall consumption of dine-in consumption is still Relatively small. This situation will continue in the coming months. “