The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April on the 12th. The market generally expects that the CPI increase in April may have shrunk year-on-year and return to the “3 era”.


The year-on-year increase in CPI in April may return to the “3 era” In March, the CPI rose slightly. In March, the CPI rose by 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below 5% for the first time this year.

What is the increase in CPI in April? According to Wind information statistics, the average forecast value of 16 research institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in April was 3.7%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 4.6% and the minimum value is 3.1%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the CPI increase in April will be reduced by 0.6 percentage points from March, and will return to the “3 era” after an interval of 6 months.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index” in April 2020 was 123.42, a decrease of 5.93 points from the previous month; an increase of 7.40 points from the same period last year.

The pork price, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, on April 29, the price of pork (lean meat) in 36 large and medium-sized cities was 29.92 yuan / kg, since 2019 For the first time since mid-October, it fell below 30 yuan per catty, down 13.6% from the previous high.

“Food prices have generally declined significantly since April. Pork supply has improved significantly, and pork wholesale prices have continued to fall.” Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the current Domestic grain supply and demand are stable, especially grain, wheat and other staple food reserves are sufficient and the self-sufficiency rate is high. The price of grain will not be significantly affected by the global spread of the epidemic and insect disasters.

“The price of international crude oil fell sharply, and the price of commodities fell, which was gradually transmitted to consumer terminals, bringing down the cost of domestic fuel oil and some industrial consumer goods, and promoting non-food prices. “Liu Xuezhi pointed out that due to the tail-lifting factor of 3.24% in April, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the April CPI year-on-year increase will decline further, possibly between 3.5% and 3.8%, with a median value of 3.6%.


What is the future trend of CPI increase?

From May 1 to May 9, the “Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index” was 119.13, a decrease of 2.46 points from last week and an increase of 4 from the same period last year Points. The prices of vegetables have dropped overall, the average wholesale prices of pork and eggs have continued to decline, and the prices of fruits have increased month-on-month.

“In the future, there will be a sufficient supply of vegetables, and the supply of meat is facing the peak season,” Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told reporters that considering seasonal factors, it is expected to be 5 In June, the year-on-year increase in CPI will fall to 4% or below.

“At present, domestic production and supply are recovering faster. In terms of food prices, due to the continuous recovery of hog production capacity since October last year, and the addition of base factors, the price of pigs in the second half of this year will be It will fall sooner. In addition, the price of fruit will also fall faster year-on-year in the middle of the year, which will help the CPI fall. “Huachuang Securities expects that this year’s CPI will decline in a slide style, with the annual center around 3%.

Yan Pengcheng, Director General of the National Economic Integration Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference on April 20 that, overall, the impact of the epidemic on China ’s consumer prices is short-term The foundation for the stable operation of China’s prices is still solid. With the further recovery of the production and living order of the whole society, the CPI increase is expected to continue to decline, and the whole year will show a trend of “high before low”.

(Originally titled “CPI announced in April today, year-on-year increase or return to” 3 times “”)