This article is from the public account: really called Lu Jun (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , author: Rousseau, thematic map from: vision China
Two special types in the property marketSpecial phenomena appear in two cities that should be integrated: Hangzhou and Shanghai.
One
I went on a business trip last week and met some friends in Hangzhou. The first sentence I said was: The Hangzhou property market is so magical. Seriously, I have seen all kinds of peculiar phenomena in the property market, but I still feel a little thrilling about the current Hangzhou.
The real estate market in Hangzhou has entered a fanatical status quo, and now the first-hand house has become a treasure in the eyes of all Hangzhou people. First-hand room. Hangzhou property market has created some directional vocabulary, such as ten thousand people shaking, such as playing a new disk.
The reason for this phenomenon is because of the special dual-limit mode in the Hangzhou property market.
What does it mean that the sale of a piece of land stipulates the highest selling price of a first-hand house, and also stipulates how much the most expensive land can sell. However, in the dual-limit mode, it is often stipulated that the future highest first-hand house price is higher than the current first-hand house sold. So for home buyers, this is the room for increase. The houses on the side will be more expensive than they are now, so why not buy them.
And the developers also saw such a signal, it is so obvious, there is no risk in taking the land, because when the land obtained is developed into a first-hand house, the later plots will also be priced higher , So there is no risk in taking the land. It must be sold. Therefore, the land is also madly robbed, and every time the land price is taken to the highest value of the land price limit.
This is the speciality of the current Hangzhou property market, the madness of the land market and the madness of the property market.
Because of this, there is a subtle butterfly effect in the back, precisely because there is no need to worry about decontamination, so the most recent period is the stage of collective decline in the product power of the Hangzhou property market. Almost no developers concentrate on making products, and so are those familiar with you. The phenomenon of rights protection in Hangzhou is one after another, and the most magical thing is that a project is often in line with rights protection, while queuing to buy a house, and the unsold houses are poured into the sales office for various attempts. Lottery tickets, while thinking about whether you can make your lottery tickets more worthy through rights protection.
It does n’t matter what product you buy, it does n’t matter how big it is, the key is to buy it.
For practitioners, products, marketing, and brands are all put aside. Getting the land is the most important thing. This is an easy task. It is also the first thing to do if you have no time to think about right or wrong.
Two
So in this mode, it is indeed no longer qualified to talk about whether the product quality is upgraded or whether the demand is improved. For the psychological expectations of buying, it is just necessary to buy a house in Hangzhou. Because of this, many times Hangzhou has become a city that despises Shanghai in terms of housing prices. I have heard too many people say to me: Shanghai houses are just like that, and there are more than 10 million houses in Central.
Yes, the more embarrassing reality for the Shanghai property market side is: The absence of the first set of buyers.
What is the first buyer? It was the first time that buyers who bought a house in Shanghai were absent, and the proportion of the most unwilling buyers in Shanghai was insufficient. As a result, the trend of the Shanghai property market was indeed a little tangled. In Shanghai, we do see that transactions have picked up and volume has risen, but behind the entire transaction structure, we have seen a certain degree of unevenness. This year’s centralized supply of products in Shanghai Central, the red plate can still see hot sales, but such projects are indeed too few and too few, Qiantan, The Bund, Binjiang … such a strong location can be, and most of the projects have been opened 70% off is pretty good, and there are still many projects worrying about where their customers come from.
Is Shanghai ’s first-hand house signal not strong? Actually, it ’s not necessarily that. This year ’s pricing for pure new disks has improved to a certain extent compared to last year. The overall product power has also forced Shanghai ’s strongest quality in the past three years. But the entire market has not yet entered the status quo of a comprehensive recovery.
In the final analysis, the Shanghai property market was forced to enter the improvement cycle after the lack of customers, and the hot sale of the city center project also illustrates one thing. Location improvement has become the current main theme.
When a first-hand house suddenly appears in an area that has been deprived of supply for a long time, the power of such replacement has become the most sturdy driving force in the property market. The suburban projects are now facing another embarrassment. The projects in the central ring have entered a small area to control the total price, so there is a mismatch in the total price of the suburban projects. Can choose the phenomenon. This mismatch of the total price also caused embarrassment in many suburban areas.
This is the status quo of the Shanghai property market. The sales office is not deserted. At that time, the customers were all ticking, and all the traders need to solve it.Two questions: where are my customers and how can I compete with competitors. When the current mainstream customers buy a house for the second time, and even many of them sell their own commercial houses to buy a set, the user will ask a question, not why you bought it, but why you want to sell the current house. .
If you do n’t think about the problem for someone else, someone else thinks about it for the customer. It ’s because this problem needs to be solved that a customer ’s replacement cycle is lengthened. In the Shanghai property market, home buyers are steadily buying houses, but home buyers are also steadfastly waiting.
Three
The Shanghai property market is improving, and the Hangzhou property market just needs to buy a house.
Why there is such a difference, there are two consensus needs to be clear:
First, under the current economic climate, all individuals have unparalleled confidence in a strong city, and unwavering confidence in the future development of the property market. The hot property market in Hangzhou is just a case. We see Shenzhen, Guangzhou, see Suzhou, Nanjing, the future of these strong first- and second-tier cities. All individuals believe that the city will become the strongest base, which can help them hedge against future risks and inflation. Of course, this city also includes Shanghai.
Second, in different cities today, all hope that the land market can remain active, and the logic behind it is also very simple, because each city has paid a huge price for the fight against the epidemic. In exchange for a victory. Therefore, different cities are actively transferring land and using land revenue to strengthen fiscal revenue. This phenomenon is true in many cities.
But why Shanghai and Hangzhou, the real estate markets of these two cities will show such a huge contrast, this is actually the expectations of the total number of people who buy houses. Shanghai ’s lack of just needs is not due to the total population, but the number of outsiders who can meet the standard of buying houses and the number of newly settled people in Shanghai is too small. Outsiders need 5 years of social security and are married only one This group of people has either bought a house early, or it is a long distance from 5 years or married. There are so few places to become Shanghainese, the threshold is harsh enough, and the upper limit of Shanghai ’s population of 25 million has been calibrated in 2040. Therefore, the number of new housing purchases in the industry is absolutely limited every year. The core of supporting the urban real estate market comes from replacement, that is, you can sell and then buy. Behind the replacement is the 70% down payment. Well, this close to the leverageless model of house purchase has also greatly erased a large number of buyers. This is also the latest development of service awareness in the Shanghai property market.I started to improve, because every prospective customer is really a treasure, and I came to the sales office in order to get through various customs like a monster.
What about Hangzhou?
There are no barriers to settle in Hangzhou. You can settle in the apartment now. As long as you want, you can become a Hangzhou citizen in 10,000 ways. You can buy a house in the last year. The cost of such time is already very low compared to other cities. In addition, there is also a so-called talent buying house in Hangzhou. As long as you are identified as a talent, then the first-hand house will provide you with special homes. The probability of shaking is very high. As for how to count talents, do you meet the talents? Too.
So everyone can feel that when everyone ’s confidence in the property market is picking up, The fact that individuals in a city are eligible to buy a house becomes very important. If a large number of quasi-purchasing qualifications are hatched in the city, and the first set of qualifications, then the city ’s demand will be rapid and sufficient, thus activating the entire market. Hangzhou ’s double-limit model is a special case, but in Nanjing in Suzhou Also entered the fiery mode.
Under the mode of different policies in different cities, the trend of each city is also special and personalized
Four
Okay, let ’s ask another serious question: Which one do you think is the best property market in these two cities?
According to our objective, Shanghai has no bubbles in housing prices, and has been stable for three years. This year it has only slightly increased; Hangzhou has not had a fundamentally weak market in the past 5 years, and the property market has been rising. I do n’t know. There is no bubble but prices have been rising.
Let ’s talk objectively again, Shanghai ’s product power has returned to the peak of Shanghai ’s history in the past two years. A large number of projects this year have begun to work on soft services. Whether it is property or community support has been maximized, Shanghai First-hand House has already There are no shortcomings; the Hangzhou property market shakes its numbers while defending its rights. Customers who buy a poor house are not worried at all, and it is really painful not to buy it. There have been too many cases in which the housing price has increased by more than 50% from off-plan housing to delivery.
Which of these two cities is better, you can think about this question carefully.
In fact, you may find that these are two completely different industry models, one is running wildly, and the other is in a difficult transition.
It is under different control modes that the twoThis city has entered two different channels. In fact, I do n’t know how friends in these two cities treat each other. Will they look at each other and say something … Congratulations on making a fortune?
In fact, what I want to tell you is that the real estate track is complex today, just like Hangzhou and Shanghai are presenting to us. The strategy of Incheng City has been implemented for more than 3 years. Three years, enough to change the fundamentals of a property market, this is the silent power of moistening things.
We must have enough awe for any policy, because a house takes 2 years from off-plan to delivery, but it takes only 3 years to change the time. Now we use general principles to judge a city. One-sided and not objective, each city has its own trend, and each city has its own future.
Walk around the city you love with your feet, and the city will give you enough feedback.
Five
Please note that I do n’t want to judge which city ’s housing prices have bubbles, or to judge whether such housing price trends are reasonable. In fact, any exaggerated bubbles in history are finally flattened by the more exaggerated development speed, regardless of It’s Shanghai, Hangzhou, and future house prices are far from that. But I want to remind you that as an individual, when we take out the real money to buy a house, can we resist this 3 years. What kind of chips do we use to face ourselves and the future ourselves.
I look at the current Hangzhou, and I also remember Hangzhou in 2010. The Hangzhou property market has been running for the past five years. It has also experienced five years of sinking in 2010. Out of the quagmire, it is five years before and after. A city can be very young for a hundred years, but for an individual there are several years.
Shanghai doesn’t need it, and Hangzhou doesn’t improve. We need to be clear. In a city, especially a strong first- and second-tier city, the market demand will always be stable or even decline. But you need to remember more that the decline in demand does not bring about a price decline, the price must be strong, but the decline in demand will bring about a reduction in product liquidity.
What kind of products can hedge risks, what kind of products have liquidity, and what kind of products can last forever, this is a very complicated and complicated question.
Six
Awe of the industry can be worthy of yourself.
This article is from the public account: really called Lu Jun (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , Author: Rousseau