This article comes from the WeChat public account: Economic Observer (ID: eeo-com-cn) , author: Lu Cheng Yang, from the title figure: vision China
Do you still open stores this year? Merchants from many shopping malls actively sent WeChat.
Li Xia was asked (pseudonym) , is a catering brand development manager, responsible for the communication of the brand in the mall. Before and after the epidemic, he clearly felt the change in the attitude of the malls to the brand investment.
The change in attitude comes from the increase in the vacancy rate of shopping malls.
According to the monitoring of the Win Big Data system, 9671 stores in 39 shopping centers in Beijing have closed 1,570 stores from October 2019 to May 2020, with a total closure rate of 16%. The closing rate of shopping malls in commercial districts is 11%, slightly higher than the data in the same period in recent years, but far lower than urban sub-core commercial districts and regional commercial districts.
In reality, the more intuitive performance is the closed shops in various shopping malls and the fences to be opened. From the wait-and-see in March to the adjustment in April and the unsustainable support in May, many brand stores fell in the spring and summer of this year. At the same time, new players are eager to try and want to seize the window period.
Right to speak
Li Xia has more choices for the shops in the mall, and it is based on more favorable prices and looser contract conditions.
Last September, when Li Xia and Joy City, Heshenghui and Longhu Tianjie discussed the conditions for taking shop, they clearly felt that the high requirements of these well-known shopping malls are reflected in all aspects, not only the rent is difficult to negotiate, but the brand YesWhether it is in line with the mall or whether it will compete with existing stores in the venue are all considerations.
Despite repeated communication, the brand still failed to settle in this year. After all, Li Xia’s fancy is a popular shopping mall, which is hard to find before the epidemic. Even if the brand meets the requirements in all aspects and can accept the rental price, it is likely to have to wait in line.
“If we want to enter, we have to queue up until next year.” A food and beverage industry practitioner said, “Because there are limited stores in the mall, there are too many brands to enter.”
After the epidemic, with the adjustment of some brands ’closing stores, there are still brands that plan to open stores and find that their rankings are quickly advancing. At this time, the right to speak also changes.
Investment staff sent a message to Li Xia: The overall rent budget this year is lower than last year. This means that the daily rent per square meter can be a few dollars cheaper. At the same time, the mall has relaxed the requirements for the scale of the brand, and the lease period can also be signed for a longer period. “Two or three years before the lease period, and one more year can be signed this year.” .
This is the situation of the head mall. The general malls have more discounts. Li Xia revealed that some malls in the Chongwenmen business district in Beijing, “In the past, the daily rent for each square meter was twelve or three dollars. Seven or eight dollars. “
As for the reason for the change of voice, he believes that “ (shopping mall) ca n’t be recruited (brand) , now there are few normal stores, especially hundreds of square meters. ”
Opportunity
Do you know what is the most critical change now? A group owner of a direct rental group in a shopping mall asked himself and answered. The key is that now there are more opportunities, and the rent is not the most important.
In the direct rental group of more than 400 people, he publishes the information of the shops in major shopping malls every day. If there is a favorite shop, the brands in the group can find him to help communicate with the mall. Entrance fees, through his channels, the entrance fees of well-known shopping malls in Beijing need 100,000 to 300,000 yuan.
This is a WeChat group that is almost full. The group name of “Direct Rent 2” shows that this is the second position of the group owner. Need to meet the conditions, wait in line, and even pay real money.
It should be noted that this kind of intermediary channel is more used by industry novices who need to open stores. After the epidemic, this admission fee has also declined, and some popular shopping malls have almost 50% discount on admission fees . “Now if the large dining area is suitable, you can enter without looking for me.” The group owner admitted.
Comprehensively looking at the east and west areas of Longhu Changyingtian Street, the higher the floor, the greater the number of unopened stores. Jindingxuan, Invincible Home, South Xinjiang and North Xinjiang, Laoyueguo and other restaurant shops are still not open. From the perspective of the enclosure, large chain restaurants such as the sidewalk furnace and Nanjing big brand stalls are being renovated.
For this, Longhu stated that Changying will continue to upgrade its brand on the basis of satisfying consumer needs and optimize the overall restaurant catering structure.
In addition, some shopping malls such as Joy City Chaoyang and Heshenghui are also surrounded by enclosures.
This situation is the epitome of the Beijing shopping mall, which superimposes the dual factors of the natural replacement of shopping mall brands and the impact of the epidemic. For brands that still have store opening plans, it means more opportunities.
A number of commercial real estate practitioners told the Economic Observation Network that Beijing ’s top shopping malls used to value the quality and tonality of settled brands. If they did not meet their requirements, no matter how high the rent was, they could not settle in, but after the epidemic, These owners also relaxed the requirements, as long as the size of the brand is OK, all have the opportunity to sit down and talk.
A person in charge of operations of a retail brand said that the rents of the malls that he has contacted with have not changed significantly, but there are indeed more quality shops. “The matter of taking the shop is very much about luck and fate, and choice is sometimes more important than rent reduction,” she said.
Beijing ’s current shopping mall is far from the point of rent reduction. There are always people who want to enter the hot market. A commercial real estate researcher said: “The current vacant changes have indeed given the brand opportunities, depending on whether it can be grasped Live shuffle this time. “
Replacement and shuffle
Although there are more choices, the person in charge of the aforementioned retail brand operation is still not sure which store to enter, because she found that the flow of people in the store is recovering, but the spending power has not yet fully returned.
A small snack shop opened in a famous shopping center in eastern Beijing. The monthly running water recovered less than half of the previous year. Its boss said that he could still take a breather, and the shopping mall in which he was not fully restored. Formerly 100% of (Dining) , specialIn addition to large-scale catering, many of them did not open the door, and the mall also provided corresponding support, for example, the rent payment cycle was changed from quarterly payment to monthly payment.
The boss sighed that most customers did n’t care much about the price before. For snacks with a unit price of about 30 yuan, you can buy two or three or three or four servings. After the epidemic, the middle-class families with more spending power disappeared. At the same time, young customers who were originally keen to queue up, “very cautiously when they arrive at the store, will look at all the products and then buy the cheapest. Or they keep asking if there are discounts, and if there is no discount, they will definitely not buy.”
The consumption power and mentality of customers determine the business motivation of the stores.
According to data from DTZ, the retail vacancy rate was 9% in the first quarter of 2020, a year-on-year decrease. According to CBRE CB Richard Ellis data, the vacancy rate rose 0.8 percentage points from the previous month to 7.3%, and the average rent on the first floor of the shopping mall was RMB 37.5 per square meter per day, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month.
Due to different sampling, the statistics of major institutions are different.
For the data on the year-on-year decline in vacancy rate, Ms. Meng Yi, head of the commercial real estate department at DTZ, explained that the current wave of store closures has not yet appeared in the first quarter data, and the decline is compared with the same period last year. She said that although the vacancy rate declined in the first quarter, the vacancy rate will increase in the second quarter. This increase is more the result of the brand’s rational thinking.
Meng Yi said that March and April this year are the most difficult stage for shopping malls. Even the shopping malls in the core business districts, except for catering brands, the first-tier fashion retail and lifestyle formats have also withdrawn.
Among all formats, catering is the most affected.
Jones Lang LaSalle’s analysis shows that retailers in the apparel and other categories make full use of online promotion channels to buffer market influences. In contrast, the catering and experience formats are under greater pressure. From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing fell by 18% year-on-year, with the catering industry bearing the brunt. Sales during the same period fell by 40% year-on-year.
For commercial considerations, in order to enhance the ability to resist risks, shopping malls or leases of new stores have some choices.
After the epidemic, the primary concern of shopping malls is brand quality. Meng Yi said that the rents of shopping centers in Beijing ’s core business district have been maintained at a high level for a long time. During the rapid development of the industry, rents are difficult to fall There are many high-rent tenants on the second and third floors.
Under normal circumstances, the mall is likely to choose some tenants with ordinary operating strength but strong rent-paying ability for the sake of income.It has also affected these high-rent tenants, and high-tenant tenants have entered the store closure tide, which is an opportunity for shopping malls to adjust their brand mix and replace more high-quality brands.
For the long-term development of physical business, this is likely to be a turning point for more benefits than harm, Meng Yi said.
“This year is the year of reshuffle.” Appeal snack shop owners also expressed the same view. Since 2017, consumers have been very enthusiastic about catering and new snack foods, so the entire industry is very lively. It ’s hilarious, but because of the severe impact of the epidemic, many shops will not be able to bear it. Maybe the entire catering entity will not invest, start a business, or make an online celebrity shop like before. , Whether it will be better or worse after washing. “
This article comes from the WeChat official account: Economic Observer (ID: eeo- com-cn) , author: Lu Cheng Yang