What will the future look like? No one knows.

Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Economic Observer” (ID:eeo-com-cn)< / a>, author: Ivan Chan.

Rational·Constructive

With the resumption of global production and production, consumption and production in some countries are restarting. This is a good sign for businesses in Yiwu, but to what extent can it be restored? Will there be any changes afterwards? What is the future?

This year is probably Santa’s loneliest year.

And the merchants of Yiwu, a small town in the east that bears more than 60% of the world’s Christmas exports, are also having the most difficult year. The Christmas orders that started in April have rarely received much attention so far. The Christmas orders in June have basically ended, but this year, merchants are still watching and looking forward to a possible recovery in July, which will save the first half of the year. loss.

One side is cancelled orders, hesitant foreign trade business owners, closed Indian restaurants, stalled freight business, the other is hot live broadcast, fierce e-commerce, everywhere e-commerce training advertisements and e-commerce schools… Various elements collide in this small town in middle Zhejiang.

With the resumption of global production and production, consumption and production in some countries are restarting. This is a good sign for businesses in Yiwu, but to what extent can it be restored? Will there be any changes afterwards? What is the future? No one knows.

“The hardest time hasn’t come yet. If you continue this state in the second half of the year, you might close.” Some foreign trade business owners said.

“The epidemic is just a catalyst. In fact, foreign trade orders have been squeezed by cross-border e-commerce in recent years,” said a Yiwu businessman.

Businessmen in Yiwu, perhaps a group of people who are most familiar with the changes in the international situation, chat with people doing business in Yiwu. They have detailed information about the conflict in the Middle East, changes in US trade policy, the epidemic in Southeast Asia, and even the Sino-Indian border. The time may be to ease the deblocking, and all can talk about it. Because the ups and downs of the international situation will affect the business of the people here.

Foreign trade wayfinding

Yiwu International Trade City is a landmark of this city. The business area is more than 4 million square meters, with 70,000 shops.

“2 yuan, wholesale price of 2 yuan, 2 yuan is too much.”

In the toy area on the first floor, shopkeepers are selling their products. A business woman shouted holding a rubber ball in the store. Recruitment revelations are hanging outside the store, with similar requirements: one must know a computer, and the other must speak English. A guest from AfricaHowever, this “relatively better” situation has not brought about a substantial improvement.

“Is there any improvement in June?”

“No.”

“Is there any mitigation measures?”

“No.”

Ms. Luo said that the hardest time may not yet come. Wait until the second half of the year to next year. If it is still in this order status, the money you have made is almost lost, and the rent and bank loans will be delivered on time. They are now in internal management, as far as possible to control internal costs and save materials as much as possible.

The mentality of the foreign trade business owners has changed from the previous months. In March and April, the state is more worried about not being able to resume work and production. At that time, the list of the previous year had not been completed and the goods could not be delivered. At that time, the government sent people to the labor-exporting counties to recruit workers, and the Yiwu Human Resources and Social Security Bureau and the Finance Bureau also jointly launched the “Opinions on Strengthening Enterprise Employment Security in Response to the New Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic”, and proposed corporate charter subsidies, self-return employee subsidies, Implement relevant guarantee policies such as private car transfers and encourage enterprises to recruit new employees through multiple channels.

However, after the order was completed many years ago, many workers began to face the situation of being unemployed. By June, many workers had returned to their hometowns.

Due to the impact of the epidemic abroad, an Italian customer directly canceled a quarterly order, because the customer’s store did not start opening until June. At this time in previous years, Ms. Luo’s company had begun to A customer rushes to make an order, and there will be about 80,000 to 100,000 pieces. There are also some ready-made clothes, waiting for customers to notify the delivery. Some styles have been cancelled. Originally, 10 models may be released in a quarter, and now 3-4 styles are available.

Next to the office, there are many clothing styles for export, mostly staying in summer clothes and spring clothes. In the factory next door, through the cloth room, there are already boxes of goods waiting to be shipped out, and several workers are working on the production line. According to the practice of previous years, at this time the European market should have some autumn and winter clothing.

Domestic sales may be the same way. On June 22, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Transfer of Export Products to Domestic Sales” (hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”), proposing to play a guiding role for the government to support the transfer of export products to domestic sales, helping foreign trade companies to bail out and ensure the industrial chain The smooth operation of the supply chain stabilizes the basic foreign trade and foreign investment. Give full play to the role of enterprises, adhere to market-oriented operations, encourage foreign trade enterprises to expand sales channels, and promote the upgrading of domestic consumption. Implement local territorial responsibility, promote the conversion of exported products to domestic sales according to local conditions, and focus on helping foreign trade enterprises and small, medium, and micro-sized foreign trade enterprises in important industrial chain supply chains in the region.

However, for Ms. Luo, this path is not suitable for her.

“We originally export mainly shirts, and domestic sales are already saturated. A dozen years ago, the domestic market was saturated, so foreign trade was only started.” Ms. Luo said, in addition, the logic of domestic sales and foreign trade is completelyDifferent, the former fights for inventory, and foreign trade companies ship according to orders. In addition, different regions have different needs for patterns, fabrics, quality, and size. Very simple logic. The smallest clothing in the European market may be in China. It is already the largest code.

“The market segmentation is very mature, domestic sales are domestic sales, foreign trade is foreign trade, it is not easy to switch the bow immediately.” Liu Jing has been doing foreign trade freight in Yiwu for 20 years, and docking with many foreign trade suppliers, this It also allows him to fully understand the subtle changes that have occurred here. He has a client in the beauty industry. His products are sold to the Middle East, Europe and the United States, and some are sold to China. Different regions match different sales teams. There are basically no orders in the Middle East market this year. One of his colleagues originally turned out more than 140 cabinets a month, but only one in April this year.

In Liu Jing’s view, the impact of the epidemic on foreign trade may be more of a catalyst. The cross-border e-commerce business developed in recent years has hit the traditional foreign trade greatly, and the cross-border e-commerce grows every year. Soon, one of his customers did not exceed 30 containers a week last year, and by April-June this year, 150 containers could be shipped each week.

Cross-border e-commerce, Ms. Luo and they have not tried it. In 2018, they recruited people and relied on the Amazon platform to do cross-border e-commerce business, but this is a big investment for them. To be a cross-border e-commerce company, they must be well aware of various promotional days, such as “Black Friday”, How many discounts, how many cumulative discounts are available, when they can be used, and when they can’t be used? It is a test for the operator and requires a dedicated team to operate.

“The clothes we made for Amazon can’t be sent out now, and the goods can’t be sold or sold back. They can only be disposed of.” Ms. Luo said. If the market is not well grasped and the whole cannot be done, these clothes shipped overseas will become inventory. Originally the fabric is placed in its own warehouse, and it can still be 4 yuan a meter, but it still needs to pay the cost of workers to make clothes. If it is not sold, it will lose money.

The disappearing Indian restaurant

Compared directly with the depression of foreign trade export, Yiwu has fewer foreign businessmen.

Everyone who has been to Yiwu knows that “there is a first-class Indian restaurant”; the high-speed rail station in Yiwu has a dedicated foreign personnel passageway; there are often three languages ​​on the shop signs along the street: Chinese, English and Arabic; in freight “Door to Door Cargo” is written in English and Arabic on the signboard of the company’s store; Indian restaurants on Chengbei Road are often Indians from the boss to the employees. Most of them can speak Chinese and speak fluently when ordering. Passionately promote their signature dishes-various curries, come and go at intervals between meals and ask “Is it delicious?”

Yiwu Indian Restaurant

At about 5:30 in the past, most stores in Yiwu International Trade City were off work. At that time, the bus station was full of people. Some people in the Middle East, India, and Africa were carrying black briefcases or carrying clothes. Full bags came out of the trade city. Most of them are foreign businessmen engaged in the foreign trade industry in Yiwu.

India is one of the countries with the most exports in Yiwu. According to data from the Yiwu International Trade Comprehensive Information Service Platform, India has ranked second among Yiwu’s destination destinations for export to 2020, at US$650 million. Prior to this, India had been the destination country for Yiwu’s most exports for many years. In 2015, Yiwu’s total export commodities were US$33.8 billion and exports to India were US$18 billion.

But this year the atmosphere is much colder.

On May 12, Indian Prime Minister Modi announced the renewal of the “closure order” nearly 50 days after the national blockade was issued on March 24. On March 23, Yiwu International Trade Comprehensive Information Service Platform A risk warning was issued. Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of Finance of the Indian Government, announced in its 2020-21 government budget that it will increase the prices of furniture, footwear, home appliances, mobile phone parts, toys and other products. Import tariffs.

The conflict on the Sino-Indian border escalated in June.

“Something like this happened in June, and we dared not sell a lot of goods.” Ms. Liu is a foreign trade agency called AMKAY. Indian businessmen give orders to them. They are responsible for finding suppliers to take the goods and then send them. To the shipping company. Her boss is an Indian and has worked in Yiwu for more than ten years. This year, the Indian boss stayed in Hong Kong and could not come to Yiwu. He could only communicate with them remotely. Futian Business Apartment is located on Chengbei Road and Chengbei Middle Road. This apartment is almost the same as AMKAY’s foreign trade agency company. “We are also opposite a foreign trade agency run by an Indian boss, and we can’t get in India directly.” “These foreigners on the street you see are half less than before.” She smiled helplessly.

Many Indian restaurants have locked doors. Through the glass door, you can still see the dining tables and chairs and the bar inside, which are lonely covered with gray. Perhaps you can only see the lively past from the gorgeous Southeast Asian-style signs.

During the epidemic, in order to encourage foreign investors to return, the Yiwu municipal government adopted a series of preferential policies. During the Spring Festival and the epidemic prevention and control period, a 24-hour hotline was opened for foreign investors to publish the Chinese and English versions of the guide to answer immigration during the epidemic prevention and control period.Problems with immigration.

“In June, foreign businessmen gradually increased to Yiwu. However, foreign-oriented enterprises targeting India are now particularly influential.” Liu Jing said, “And the Indian market has a certain uniqueness, if it is very targeted In the Indian market, it is difficult to open up other export directions.”

In the conversation, Ms. Liu’s Indian boss called her to confirm the information of an order. She reported the order number and delivery status one by one in English. “Now wait for July to see if there is any improvement. We will first prepare the goods.”

Another Yiwu in the live broadcast

Foreign trade orders over Yiwu have disappeared and are being illuminated by another heavy light.

Yiwu North Xiazhu is a gathering point for live e-commerce in Yiwu. The arch at the intersection reads “China? Yiwu Jiangbei Xiazhu E-commerce Town”. Entering this arch, it seems that it is not in the same time and space as Yiwu International Trade City.

The red signs on Mandajie Street are marked with the words “Home of Explosions”, “Internet Red Products”, and “Platform Docking”. Noisy and chaotic, the three-wheeled pallet truck shuttles, carrying goods, or the e-commerce anchors who come to find the goods and are dressed in gorgeous clothes. The black plastic bags are filled with all kinds of explosions that have been bought. Stalls selling grilled skewers, roasted fairy grass, and fried noodles are supported at various intersections. The fat boss of the Northeast accent threw a piece of fried noodles into a plastic box.

Walking on the street, you can be stuffed into a flyer for live e-commerce training at any time. There are trial classes, live offline teaching, and the flyer is written: “5G live training base, the most professional teacher, the cheapest tuition, The most dry course, the most perfect after-sales.” Some stores along the street also posted advertisements for selling vibrato and fast-hand accounts. Under the influence of the epidemic, the live broadcast economic outlet was once again blown up, and another fire was fired in the district of Beixiazhu. The merchants in Yiwu also saw a new way.

Anchor live broadcast

“Welcome everyone to my live broadcast room, today this row of goods is all 9 blocks 9! 9 blocks 9!” July 3rd “Rattle · Night Bazaar” in Yiwu 23 Sanli Rattle Square, like a Small-scale northward Zhu, merchants have set up stalls on the square to sell goods, live broadcast shouting.

The boss lady of “Mr. Huo Lang” was dressed beautifully, and created a place in the merchandise room, put on the live broadcast equipment, and sold the goods on his own in July.She left a sweat stain on her face, but she was still very interested.

This is an event co-organized by Yisanli Sub-district Office and Yiwu Women’s Federation, which gathered more than 70 companies and brought goods live on the square. A participating car dealership sold a Buick car of RMB 125,900 in this live broadcast.

Tao Xiaoyan, who has been doing business in Yiwu for 30 years, sells some small jewelry, and has booths in the International Trade City. She does not do foreign trade and has always been engaged in domestic sales, although orders have declined due to the impact of the epidemic. , But it improved slightly after June. She has her own factory in Yiwu, and the workers are only half of those in previous years, but because of the reduction in orders, the existing labor force can support it. This year, she started to test the live broadcast of selling goods. The live broadcast business is managed by her son. “Young people say that live broadcast can drive some sales.” One day a day, 4 hours a day, with her own live broadcast team, sometimes from Find a dedicated live broadcast team outside. During the talk, some customers drove live on their mobile phones and came to find the source of goods. Tao Xiaoyan enthusiastically promoted their online celebrity products.

Ms. Xia of the sales department of Yiwu Peninsula Hotel and her colleagues also set up a booth in Nishisanli, which is a new model launched by their hotel group-it took about 3 years to select and jointly manufacture and sell the hotel directly. Some products, such as drinking water, toothpaste, toothbrushes, gym bags, eggs for hotel restaurants, etc., “All products are directly supplied by manufacturers. If customers find that the product experience is good during their stay, they can place orders directly from us. The prices are all ex-factory prices, such as a bottle of water, and other channels may cost about 10 yuan. We can buy 2 yuan here. The hotel charges a service fee from the manufacturer.” Ms. Xia said. In addition to being in a hotel, they also push home service in the community. This model was not specifically launched for the epidemic. It was officially launched in the second half of 2019. In February, due to the epidemic and the blockade of the community, they launched the home service. The manufacturer’s car was delivered to the local area. The hotel sent people to pick up the car at the intersection. Products are sent to various communities.

Ms. Xia said that the group will also introduce the setting of a live broadcast room afterwards. “After all, the trend is here.” The group will let the bosses of the manufacturers come over to do live broadcasts. “The boss does the live broadcast himself, and the bosses are the first responsible person. It’s very hard to manage her own products.” This year, many of her colleagues went to the live broadcast test, and she also took one.

But in fact, live streaming is essentially a marketing tool, and it is difficult to explain whether it can bring more benefits to the enterprise.

“Live broadcast is basically still in the state of investing money, and there is no money to make.” Tao Xiaoyan said, “The goods are still needed, so we still have to do well in the traditional business.”