The school district room, really not fragrant yet

Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “Real Estate Information Station” (ID: dichanqbz), Author: Mu rain.

The “316” New Deal for Senior High School Entrance Examination has caused huge waves in the Shanghai housing market. Now that more than half a month has passed, the market seems to be slowly returning to calm.

But in the calm, the undercurrent surging, the game is endless.

The Shanghai homeowner’s mentality collapsed?

Several media investigations found that the housing market in the Shanghai school district has cooled down after the release of the New Deal, and both watched and transaction volumes have declined, and the overall listing price has not changed. Buyers and sellers have fallen into a stalemate and wait-and-see. The mentality of some owners has collapsed. …

In fact, Shanghai people not only take a wait-and-see attitude towards the housing development in the school district, but many people are also watching the changes in the “316” High School Entrance Examination New Deal itself.

According to the “Shanghai High School Enrollment Reform Implementation Measures” issued by the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission on March 16th, starting from 2022, 65% of the enrollment quotas for experimental demonstration high schools in municipalities will be allocated to each district. Among them, 20% will be allocated to the school; the district-owned experimental demonstration high school will have 50%-65% of the enrollment quota allocated to each district, of which 70% will be allocated to the school.

In short, the New Deal mandates “cutting peaks and filling valleys”, requiring high-quality high school resources to be tilted toward ordinary junior high schools. The admissions part of key high schools at the city and district levels implements a “quota system” for enrollment. The number of places is allocated to districts and schools according to the number of junior high school students.

This means that even if you are in a junior high school with a weak foundation, as long as you are at the top of the school, you may be admitted to the best high school in the city.

Before, these so-called “Caizhong” “chicken head” students had a very small chance of being admitted to prestigious schools such as the “Four Schools and Eight Universities”. In the brutal competition for higher education, a strong relationship has been formed between high-quality high schools, high-quality junior high schools and high-quality elementary schools. The special education system, which the industry calls the “little promotion for life”, has gradually pushed the Shanghai school district housing to a height that is unattainable by an ordinary family.

Industry analysts believe that the implementation of the New Deal will greatly increase the uncertainty of the initial rise, which will make all areas of Shanghai be in a dynamic equilibrium-a good school district this year may not be a good school district next year. Schools popular with outstanding students may be avoided next year.

As a result, the school district premium will not be realized. As a result, the gold content of the high-quality middle and high school district housing will be reduced, and it will also be transmitted to the school district housing of the high-quality elementary school.

So, does this mean that high-quality junior high schools and high-quality elementary schools are really bad?

The stationmaster has a college classmate who has been teaching in an ordinary public junior high school in Shanghai for many years. In her opinion, regardless of the source of students, only in terms of soft power such as faculty and campus culture environment, her school and those Compared with prestigious schools, there is still a big gap, “If I have children, I would also like him to go to prestigious schools, instead of letting him go to my own school for convenience.”

My friends said that most of the good students in their school have difficulty keeping up with the progress after entering high-quality high schools. This shows that at all stages from elementary school to junior high school to high school, the distinction between high-quality schools, ordinary schools and “vegetable schools” is quite obvious. “This is the result of the imbalance of educational resources for a long time, and it cannot be changed in the short term. Passed. The New Deal has forcibly changed the structure of high-quality high school students, which I feel is of little significance.”

Xiong Bingqi, dean of the 21st Century Education Research Institute, also said in an interview with the media that parents’ education anxiety cannot be easily resolved by the New Deal. Parents choose high-quality junior high schools not only for the high school entrance examination, but for their children to receive a good junior high school education. “Even if the enrollment of high-quality high school students is enrolled in the school, in the case of uneven quality of junior high school education, if the quality of the school at the door of the house is poor, parents are likely to be willing to purchase high-quality school district housing for their children with high-quality educational resources.”

Regarding the impact of the Shanghai High School Entrance Examination New Deal on the school district’s housing, the webmaster’s opinion is that If the New Deal can continue to be implemented, it will definitely stabilize the school district’s housing prices. However, as far as she can see, many people take a wait-and-see attitude towards the New Deal and feel that there will be changes in the policy. “There are still many people who oppose it, especially the parents of ‘Nuwa’, who feel that they are at a disadvantage.”

This kind of wait-and-see sentiment is reflected in the housing market. The New Deal only suspends the momentum of rising housing prices in the Shanghai School District, and large-scale price fluctuations have not appeared. Those houses that have been slammed for “a price reduction of hundreds of thousands overnight”, the results of verification are all special cases with their own reasons.

An important perspective for paying attention to the New Deal for the Shanghai Senior High School Entrance Examination is the time point for the introduction of this policy: 10 days before the release of the “Implementation Measures”, at the national “two sessions” held in Beijing, the general secretary’s decision on education fairness and school district housing Fan talks aroused widespread concern, the original words are like this:

“It is impossible to solve the problem of education fairness overnight, even in Beijing, this problem is also very prominent. Therefore, the school district’s housing price increase is very high, so I will go to the area of ​​good schools.”

In a sense, the Shanghai High School Entrance Examination Policy, which was promulgated soon after the end of the National “Two Sessions”, was a plan for a long time,The result of careful consideration is also a positive response to high-level concerns.

Will Beijing follow up?

The question now is that Shanghai has taken the lead in action, so how will Beijing, which was directly named at the meeting, follow up?

As the twin stars of the north and the south, Beijing and Shanghai have similarities in many livelihood issues. High housing prices and school district housing are the hot topics that most affect people’s nerves. They are now characterized as “the problem is also very important.” Outstanding”, for Beijing, it must be a lot of pressure. After all, Beijing School District’s houses are actually still surging under the calm surface.

A few days ago, the media visited many famous school district housing estates and intermediary agencies in Beijing, and found that school district housing units with a unit price of 180,000 yuan/square meter or more have been fully offline, and these types of houses are basically small units and are removed from the shelves. Later, it was better to sell, because “this type of housing is the main force in the transaction of housing in just-needed school districts.”

According to the Xicheng District intermediary, there are also many houses in the district with a unit price of more than 400,000 yuan. For example, a bungalow with only 10 square meters has a unit price of more than 450,000 yuan. Transactions. All the large units are listed on the external network. If customers really want to buy, they will ask an intermediary to ask if there are small units, so they don’t have to worry about selling them at all.”

Some analysts believe that a series of policy combinations that exceed Shanghai’s strength may soon be launched in Beijing.

For example, in the Haidian District, which has an important weather vane significance in Beijing, it has been making frequent moves recently. It may be seen as a forerunner and early warning of Beijing’s brewing heavy policies.

On March 23, the Haidian District Board of Education and the Housing Management Bureau jointly issued a notice reminding the public that “investments need to be cautious, and the same goes for buying houses.” This “warm reminder” is actually a replay of the old tune, and its content is as follows:

“After January 1, 2019, if a house newly registered in Haidian District and obtained a housing real estate certificate is used to apply for admission, it will no longer correspond to one school. Multi-school division will be implemented and based on the degree The situation is allocated for admission. Hope to know.”

At the same time, in order to severely punish the concept of “school district housing” and stabilize the order of the housing transaction market, the Haidian District Housing Management Bureau and the Market Supervision Bureau have intensified law enforcement inspections of regional housing transaction agencies such as Shangdi and Wanliu. Hype up the concept of “school district housing”, take the opportunity to drive up housing prices,Authorized by the owner in writing to investigate and collect evidence of violations such as housing. A total of 134 stores of intermediary agencies were inspected, 6 intermediary agencies that violated regulations were filed, 2 were closed for self-examination, and the administrative penalty was 20,000 yuan.

Industry insiders have compared the above to the “high-energy early warning” of the Beijing school district.

In the eyes of the webmaster, this statement is not an exaggeration.

Before the storm came, it was always exceptionally calm.